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Abstract

In this paper, the presence of rational bubbles is examined in Borsa Istanbul stock exchange market over the period January 1998-April 2013 by means of traditional and hidden cointegration tests. The empirical results indicate that there is hidden cointegration between stock price index and dividend index, and therefore rational bubbles does not exist in the stock market.

Keywords

• Turkish Stock Market; Efficient Market Hypothesis; Present Value Model; Rational Bubbles; Hidden Cointegration

TÜRKİYE HİSSE SENEDİ PİYASASINDA RASYONEL KÖPÜKLER: SAKLI EŞ BÜTÜNLEŞME YAKLAŞIMI

Öz

Bu çalışmada Borsa İstanbul hisse senedi piyasasında rasyonel köpüklerin varlığı Ocak 1998-Nisan 2013 dönemi için geleneksel ve saklı eşbütünleşme testleri aracılığıyla araştırılmaktadır. Ampirik sonuçlar hisse senedi fiyat endeksi ile getiri endeksi arasında saklı eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin olduğunu ve dolayısıyla hisse senedi piyasasında rasyonel köpüğün bulunmadığını göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Türk Hisse Senedi Piyasası, Etkin Piyasalar Hipotezi, Cari Değer Modeli, Rasyonel Köpükler, Saklı Eşbütünleşme

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