PARA POLİTİKASI VE 2007-2008 KÜRESEL FİNANSAL KRİZİ: GENEL BİR DEĞERLENDİRME

Öz

Bu çalışma küresel finansal krize giden süreçte Amerika Merkez Bankası’nın (Fed) izlediği para politikasını incelemiştir. Taylor kanununun Fed’in politika faiz oranlarını belirlemesini başarılı bir şekilde açıkladığını gösterdikten sonra Taylor kanununu para politikası analizimiz için kullandık. Krize giden süreçte Fed’in politikalarında bir kırılma olup olmadığını ardışık kalıntılar toplamı (cusum) ve Chow testleriyle sınadık. Test sonuçları bize 2003 yılından itibaren Fed’in genişleyici bir para politikası takip ettiğini gösterdi. Bu çalışmada, genişleyici para politikası ve likidite bolluğuna eşlik eden bankaların kolay kredi verme politikalarının bir konut balonuna ve nihayetinde 2007-08 küresel finansal krizine yol açtığı tartışıldı. Son olarak da, kriz boyunca takip edilen geleneksel olmayan para politikalarından ve geleneksel para politikalarına dönme eğiliminden bahsedildi.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Para Politikası, Taylor Kanunu, Küresel Finansal Kriz

MONETARY POLICY AND THE 2007-08 GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS: AN OVERVIEW

Abstract

This paper analyzes the run up of the financial crisis from monetary policy point of view. After showing that the Taylor rule closely conforms to policy interest rate setting practices of the Federal Reserve System (Fed) from 1987 onwards, we use the Taylor rule in order to represent the Fed’s interest rate setting policy. Utilizing cumulative sum (cusum) and Chow forecast tests we show that starting from the early 2000s the Fed started to follow a loose monetary policy. We argue that loose monetary policy and the consequent excess liquidity in the markets, accompanied by easy credit policies and deregulation in the financial system helped to fledge a housing bubble and hence the 2007-08 global financial crisis. We also discuss unconventional monetary policies during the crisis period and the desire of the Fed to return to normal time policies as the economic situation improves

Keywords

• Monetary Policy, Taylor Rule, Global Financial Crisis

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