TÜRKİYE KONUT PİYASASINDA BALON OLUŞUMLARI: BÖLGESEL İNCELEME

Year 2020, Volume: 12 Issue: 22, 1 - 14, 01.01.2020

Vasıf Abioğlu

https://doi.org/10.14784/marufacd.688444

Cited By: 10

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Türk konut piyasasında balon oluşumunun olup olmadığı incelenmektedir. Bu amaçla, REIDIN’den elde edilen aylık konut fiyat endeksleri ile konut kira endeksleri kullanılmakla 2007:06-2018:01 dönemi için 10 il (Adana, Ankara, Antalya, Bursa, Eskişehir, İstanbul, İzmir, Kayseri, Konya ve Mersin) ve Türkiye genelinde fiyat-kira oranlarının balon içerip içermediği incelenmektedir. Tek değişkenli Phillips, Shi ve Yu (2015a) yöntemi kullanılarak elde edilen sonuçlara göre, 2010 – 2018 döneminde, Bursa ve İzmir dışında diğer tüm illerin fiyat-kira oranlarında balon oluşumları ortaya çıkmaktadır. Test sonuçlarına göre, söz konusu dönemde balon oluşumlarını en sık yaşayan şehir İstanbul olmaktadır. Ayrıca, bir yıldan uzun süren balon oluşumları İstanbul, Adana ve Mersin’de ortaya çıkmıştır.

Keywords

fiyat-kira oranları, balon, konut fiyatları, temel değer, Türkiye konut piyaysası, GSADF, BSADF

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