Research Article
BibTex RIS Cite

TÜRKİYE’DE PARA ARZI VE ENFLASYON ORANI İLİŞKİSİNE YENİ BİR BAKIŞ: KANTİL-KANTİL REGRESYON ANALİZİ

Year 2021, Volume: 13 Issue: 25, 309 - 322, 31.07.2021

Buğra Bağcı

https://doi.org/10.14784/marufacd.975933

Abstract

Gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan tüm ülkelerin yakından ilgilendiği ve üzerinde detaylı olarak çalışmalar yaptığı makroekonomik göstergelerden biri de enflasyondur. Enflasyon, hem diğer ekonomik değişkenleri etkilemesi hem de direkt olarak vatandaşların yaşam kalitesi ve refah düzeyini etkilemesi bakımından önemli bir ekonomik değişken olarak görülmektedir. Bu açıdan gerek küresel ekonomiden, gerekse ülke içi ekonomik durumdan kaynaklı yüksek enflasyon oranı, Merkez Bankaları tarafından takip edilerek gerekli müdahalelerle belirli düzeylerde tutulmaya çalışılmaktadır. Bu müdahaleler çeşitli ekonomik araçlarla da yapılabilmektedir. Para arzı da bu araçlardandır. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de 2008-2020 dönemlerinde para arzı ile enflasyon oranı arasındaki ilişki Kantil-Kantil Regresyon (KKR) yaklaşımı ile analiz edilmiştir. Sonuçlar, Türkiye’de para arzı ile enflasyon oranı arasında heterojenik bir ilişkinin olduğunu, yani enflasyon oranının tüm değerlerinin para arzının tüm değerleri ile aynı yönde hareket etmediğini göstermektedir. Dolayısıyla, para arzının artan değerlerinin her zaman enflasyon oranını artırmayacağı anlaşılmıştır. Burada, para arzının enflasyon oranı ile ters yönlü ilişkisinin olduğu dönemlerin, aynı yönlü ilişki bulunan dönemlere göre daha sığ kaldığı da söylenebilmektedir.

Keywords

Enflasyon Oranı Para Arzı Kantil-Kantil Regresyon Analizi

References

  • BAĞCI, Buğra., ÇITAK, Ferhat., & ŞİŞMAN, Muhammet Y. (2020). Koronavirüs pandemisinin havayolu şirketlerinin hisse senetleri üzerine etkisi: kantil-kantil regresyon modeli uygulaması. Gaziantep Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 19(COVID-19 Special Issue), 429-446.
  • BOURI, Elie., GUPTA, Rangan., TIWARI, Aviral K., & ROUBAUD, David. (2017). Does Bitcoin hedge global uncertainty? Evidence from wavelet-based quantile-in-quantile regressions. Finance Research Letters, 23, 87-95.
  • CHANG, Bisharat H., SHARIF, Arshian., AMAN, Ameenullah., SUKI, Norazah M., SALMAN, Asma., & KHAN, Syed A. R. (2020). The asymmetric effects of oil price on sectoral Islamic stocks: New evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression approach. Resources Policy, 65, 101571.
  • ÇATALBAŞ, Gaye K. (2007). Türkiye’de para arzı ile enflasyon arasındaki ilişkinin parametrik olmayan regresyon analizi ile incelenmesi. Gazi Universitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakultesi Dergisi, 9(3).
  • DAVID, Umoru., & ANN, Tizhe N. (2014). Causality dynamics between money supply and inflation in Nigeria: A Toda-Yamamoto test and error correction analysis. Journal of Empirical Economics, 3(2), 63-75.
  • DITIMI, Amossama., SUNDAY, Keji., & ONYEDIKACHI, Emma E. O. (2018). The upshot between money supply and inflation in Nigeria. Journal of Economic Cooperation & Development, 39(1), 83-108.
  • DURMUŞ, Hasan. (2018). Türkiye’de enflasyon hedeflemesi: örtük enflasyon ve açık enflasyon dönemleri üzerine bir değerlendirme. Siirt Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 6(11), 181-201.
  • EĞİLMEZ, Mahfi. (2018). https://www.mahfiegilmez.com/2018/07/para-arz-nedir-ve-nasl-olculur.html (Erişim Tarihi 05.10.2020).
  • EMMANUEL, Udo., UDOH, Ben E., PRINCE, Abner I., OKOH, Johnson., & NDU, Okolo M. (2019). Money supply and inflation rate in Nigeria: The missing link. Humanities, 7(3), 156-166.
  • FRIEDMAN, Milton. (1963). Inflation: Causes and consequences. Asia Publishing House.
  • GÖÇMEN, Tuncer. (2016). Causal Relationship Between Money and Inflation during a High Inflation Period: The Case of Turkey. Journal of International Business and Economics, 4(2), 1-11.
  • HAU, Liya., ZHU, Huiming., HUANG, Rui., & MA, Xiang. (2020). Heterogeneous dependence between crude oil price volatility and China’s agriculture commodity futures: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression. Energy, 213, 118781.
  • HOSSAIN, Akhtar. (2005). The Granger-causality between money growth, inflation, currency devaluation and economic growth in Indonesia: 1954-2002. International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, 2(3), 45-68.
  • IKEZAM, Nwonodi D. (2018). Money supply and inflation: Disaggregated time series evidence from Nigeria. American Finance & Banking Review, 2(1), 54-63.
  • JIANG, Chun., CHANG, Tsangyao., & LI, Xiao L. (2015). Money growth and inflation in China: New evidence from a wavelet analysis. International Review of Economics & Finance, 35, 249-261.
  • JIANJIANG, Song., & GUO, Hu. (2010). An Empirical Analysis of the Relation between Money Supply and Inflation [J]. Shanghai Finance, 10.
  • JONES, Jonathan D. (1989). A comparison of lag–length selection techniques in tests of Granger causality between money growth and inflation: evidence for the US, 1959–86. Applied Economics, 21(6), 809-822.
  • KIGANDA, Evans O. (2014). Relationship between inflation and money supply in Kenya. Journal of Social Economics, 2(2), 63-83.
  • LIN, Boqiang., & SU, Tong. (2020). The linkages between oil market uncertainty and Islamic stock markets: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile approach. Energy Economics, 104759.
  • MISHKIN, Frederic S. (2007). The economics of money, banking, and financial markets. Pearson education.
  • MISHRA, Shektar., SHARIF, Arshian., KHUNTIA, Sashikanta., MEO, Muhammad S., & KHAN, Syed A. R. (2019). Does oil prices impede Islamic stock indices? Fresh insights from wavelet-based quantile-on-quantile approach. Resources Policy, 62, 292-304.
  • OFORI, Collins F., DANQUAH, Benjamin A., & ZHANG, Xuegong. (2017). The Impact of Money Supply on Inflation, A Case of Ghana. Imperial Journal of Interdisciplinary Research, 3(1).
  • RAZA, Syed A., ZAIGHUM, Isma., & SHAH, Nida. (2018). Economic policy uncertainty, equity premium and dependence between their quantiles: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile approach. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 492, 2079-2091.
  • RAZZAQ, Asif., SHARIF, Arshian., AZIZ, Noshaba., IRFAN, Muhammad., & JERMSITTIPARSERT, Kittisak. (2020). Asymmetric link between environmental pollution and COVID-19 in the top ten affected states of US: A novel estimations from quantile-on-quantile approach. Environmental research, 191, 110189.
  • SHAHBAZ, Muhammad., ZAKARIA, Muhammad., SHAHZAD, Syed J. H., & MAHALIK, Mantu K. (2018). The energy consumption and economic growth nexus in top ten energy-consuming countries: Fresh evidence from using the quantile-on-quantile approach. Energy Economics, 71, 282-301.
  • SHAHZAD, Syed J. H., MENSI, Walid., HAMMOUDEH, Shawkat., SOHAIL, Asiya., & AL-YAHYAEE, Khamis H. (2019). Does gold act as a hedge against different nuances of inflation? Evidence from Quantile-on-Quantile and causality-in-quantiles approaches. Resources Policy, 62, 602-615.
  • SHARIF, Arshian., MISHRA, Shektar., SINHA, Avik., JIAO, Zhilun., SHAHBAZ, Muhammad., & AFSHAN, Safar. (2020). The renewable energy consumption-environmental degradation nexus in Top-10 polluted countries: Fresh insights from quantile-on-quantile regression approach. Renewable Energy, 150, 670-690.
  • SIM, Nicholas., & ZHOU, Hongtao. (2015). Oil prices, US stock return, and the dependence between their quantiles. Journal of Banking & Finance, 55, 1-8.
  • SU, Chi W., FAN, Jiao J., CHANG, Hsu L., & LI, Xiao L. (2016). Is there causal relationship between money supply growth and inflation in China? Evidence from quantity theory of money. Review of Development Economics, 20(3), 702-719.
  • TURSOY, Turgut., & MAR'I, Myhammad. (2020). Lead-lag and relationship between money growth and inflation in Turkey: New evidence from a wavelet analysis.

Year 2021, Volume: 13 Issue: 25, 309 - 322, 31.07.2021

Buğra Bağcı

https://doi.org/10.14784/marufacd.975933

Abstract

References

  • BAĞCI, Buğra., ÇITAK, Ferhat., & ŞİŞMAN, Muhammet Y. (2020). Koronavirüs pandemisinin havayolu şirketlerinin hisse senetleri üzerine etkisi: kantil-kantil regresyon modeli uygulaması. Gaziantep Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 19(COVID-19 Special Issue), 429-446.
  • BOURI, Elie., GUPTA, Rangan., TIWARI, Aviral K., & ROUBAUD, David. (2017). Does Bitcoin hedge global uncertainty? Evidence from wavelet-based quantile-in-quantile regressions. Finance Research Letters, 23, 87-95.
  • CHANG, Bisharat H., SHARIF, Arshian., AMAN, Ameenullah., SUKI, Norazah M., SALMAN, Asma., & KHAN, Syed A. R. (2020). The asymmetric effects of oil price on sectoral Islamic stocks: New evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression approach. Resources Policy, 65, 101571.
  • ÇATALBAŞ, Gaye K. (2007). Türkiye’de para arzı ile enflasyon arasındaki ilişkinin parametrik olmayan regresyon analizi ile incelenmesi. Gazi Universitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakultesi Dergisi, 9(3).
  • DAVID, Umoru., & ANN, Tizhe N. (2014). Causality dynamics between money supply and inflation in Nigeria: A Toda-Yamamoto test and error correction analysis. Journal of Empirical Economics, 3(2), 63-75.
  • DITIMI, Amossama., SUNDAY, Keji., & ONYEDIKACHI, Emma E. O. (2018). The upshot between money supply and inflation in Nigeria. Journal of Economic Cooperation & Development, 39(1), 83-108.
  • DURMUŞ, Hasan. (2018). Türkiye’de enflasyon hedeflemesi: örtük enflasyon ve açık enflasyon dönemleri üzerine bir değerlendirme. Siirt Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 6(11), 181-201.
  • EĞİLMEZ, Mahfi. (2018). https://www.mahfiegilmez.com/2018/07/para-arz-nedir-ve-nasl-olculur.html (Erişim Tarihi 05.10.2020).
  • EMMANUEL, Udo., UDOH, Ben E., PRINCE, Abner I., OKOH, Johnson., & NDU, Okolo M. (2019). Money supply and inflation rate in Nigeria: The missing link. Humanities, 7(3), 156-166.
  • FRIEDMAN, Milton. (1963). Inflation: Causes and consequences. Asia Publishing House.
  • GÖÇMEN, Tuncer. (2016). Causal Relationship Between Money and Inflation during a High Inflation Period: The Case of Turkey. Journal of International Business and Economics, 4(2), 1-11.
  • HAU, Liya., ZHU, Huiming., HUANG, Rui., & MA, Xiang. (2020). Heterogeneous dependence between crude oil price volatility and China’s agriculture commodity futures: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression. Energy, 213, 118781.
  • HOSSAIN, Akhtar. (2005). The Granger-causality between money growth, inflation, currency devaluation and economic growth in Indonesia: 1954-2002. International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, 2(3), 45-68.
  • IKEZAM, Nwonodi D. (2018). Money supply and inflation: Disaggregated time series evidence from Nigeria. American Finance & Banking Review, 2(1), 54-63.
  • JIANG, Chun., CHANG, Tsangyao., & LI, Xiao L. (2015). Money growth and inflation in China: New evidence from a wavelet analysis. International Review of Economics & Finance, 35, 249-261.
  • JIANJIANG, Song., & GUO, Hu. (2010). An Empirical Analysis of the Relation between Money Supply and Inflation [J]. Shanghai Finance, 10.
  • JONES, Jonathan D. (1989). A comparison of lag–length selection techniques in tests of Granger causality between money growth and inflation: evidence for the US, 1959–86. Applied Economics, 21(6), 809-822.
  • KIGANDA, Evans O. (2014). Relationship between inflation and money supply in Kenya. Journal of Social Economics, 2(2), 63-83.
  • LIN, Boqiang., & SU, Tong. (2020). The linkages between oil market uncertainty and Islamic stock markets: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile approach. Energy Economics, 104759.
  • MISHKIN, Frederic S. (2007). The economics of money, banking, and financial markets. Pearson education.
  • MISHRA, Shektar., SHARIF, Arshian., KHUNTIA, Sashikanta., MEO, Muhammad S., & KHAN, Syed A. R. (2019). Does oil prices impede Islamic stock indices? Fresh insights from wavelet-based quantile-on-quantile approach. Resources Policy, 62, 292-304.
  • OFORI, Collins F., DANQUAH, Benjamin A., & ZHANG, Xuegong. (2017). The Impact of Money Supply on Inflation, A Case of Ghana. Imperial Journal of Interdisciplinary Research, 3(1).
  • RAZA, Syed A., ZAIGHUM, Isma., & SHAH, Nida. (2018). Economic policy uncertainty, equity premium and dependence between their quantiles: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile approach. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 492, 2079-2091.
  • RAZZAQ, Asif., SHARIF, Arshian., AZIZ, Noshaba., IRFAN, Muhammad., & JERMSITTIPARSERT, Kittisak. (2020). Asymmetric link between environmental pollution and COVID-19 in the top ten affected states of US: A novel estimations from quantile-on-quantile approach. Environmental research, 191, 110189.
  • SHAHBAZ, Muhammad., ZAKARIA, Muhammad., SHAHZAD, Syed J. H., & MAHALIK, Mantu K. (2018). The energy consumption and economic growth nexus in top ten energy-consuming countries: Fresh evidence from using the quantile-on-quantile approach. Energy Economics, 71, 282-301.
  • SHAHZAD, Syed J. H., MENSI, Walid., HAMMOUDEH, Shawkat., SOHAIL, Asiya., & AL-YAHYAEE, Khamis H. (2019). Does gold act as a hedge against different nuances of inflation? Evidence from Quantile-on-Quantile and causality-in-quantiles approaches. Resources Policy, 62, 602-615.
  • SHARIF, Arshian., MISHRA, Shektar., SINHA, Avik., JIAO, Zhilun., SHAHBAZ, Muhammad., & AFSHAN, Safar. (2020). The renewable energy consumption-environmental degradation nexus in Top-10 polluted countries: Fresh insights from quantile-on-quantile regression approach. Renewable Energy, 150, 670-690.
  • SIM, Nicholas., & ZHOU, Hongtao. (2015). Oil prices, US stock return, and the dependence between their quantiles. Journal of Banking & Finance, 55, 1-8.
  • SU, Chi W., FAN, Jiao J., CHANG, Hsu L., & LI, Xiao L. (2016). Is there causal relationship between money supply growth and inflation in China? Evidence from quantity theory of money. Review of Development Economics, 20(3), 702-719.
  • TURSOY, Turgut., & MAR'I, Myhammad. (2020). Lead-lag and relationship between money growth and inflation in Turkey: New evidence from a wavelet analysis.
There are 30 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Buğra Bağcı This is me 0000-0002-3268-3702

Publication Date July 31, 2021
Submission Date November 14, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2021 Volume: 13 Issue: 25

Cite

APA Bağcı, B. (2021). TÜRKİYE’DE PARA ARZI VE ENFLASYON ORANI İLİŞKİSİNE YENİ BİR BAKIŞ: KANTİL-KANTİL REGRESYON ANALİZİ. Finansal Araştırmalar Ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 13(25), 309-322. https://doi.org/10.14784/marufacd.975933