International Hierarchy and Regional Security in the Post-Soviet Region: Crises in Ukraine and Georgia

Year 2017, Volume: 5 Issue: 2, 193 - 217, 27.10.2017

Aslıhan Anlar

https://doi.org/10.14782/sbd.2017.72

Abstract

Soğuk Savaşın bitiminden yirmi beş yıl geçmesine rağmen, eski Sovyet ülkeleri, işgal ve askeri çatışmalar

da dahil olmak üzere birçok iç ve dış problemle uğraşmaktadır. Rusya Federasyonu’nun 1996 öncesi

dönemde eski Sovyet coğrafyasında ortaya çıkan askeri çatışmalar ve iç savaşlar karşısında izlediği

müdahaleci politika güvenliğe katkıda bulunurken; 2008 ve 2013’de meydana gelen krizlere müdahalesi

sorunların daha da derinleşmesine sebep olmuştur. Bu çalışma Rusya Federasyonu’nun eski Sovyetler

Birliği ülkelerindeki çatışmalar karşısında birbirinden farklı politikalar izlemesinin nedenlerini konu

almaktadır. Bu soru, Rusya’nın Gürcistan ve Ukrayna ile olan hiyerarşik ilişkilerinin oluşum ve değişim

süreci incelenerek cevaplandırılmaktadır. Bu üç devlet arasında hiyerarşik ilişkilerin oluşum sürecinin

incelenmesi için askeri alanda (askeri güçlerin konuşlandırılması, egemen güç tarafından kurulan bir

ittifaka üyelik, başka bir ittifaka üyelik hedefinin olması, askeri teçhizat temini, askeri yardım alınması)

ve ekonomik ilişkilerde (dış ticarette egemen devlete bağımlılık, egemen devlet tarafından kurulan

ekonomik birliğe üye olma, ekonomik yardım alınması ve egemen devletin para birimi karşısında

izlenen para politikaları) olmak üzere yirmi iki yıllık süreçte (1992-2014) on gösterge toplamda iki

yüz yirmi göstergeye bakılmıştır. Bu göstergelere göre hiyerarşik ilişkiler üç gruba ayrılmıştır: yüksek

dereceli hiyerarşi, düşük dereceli hiyerarşi ve anarşik hiyerarşi. Ukrayna ve Gürcistan’da ilk iki dönemde

başa gelen liderler ve izledikleri politikalar ve Rusya Federasyonu’nun bu politikalara tepkisiyle farklı

hiyerarşik ilişkiler arasındaki bağlantı ortaya konmuştur. Bu çalışmada, Rusya’nın bu iki ülke ile olan

hiyerarşik ilişkilerinin değişmesi, öncellikle Rusya’nın bu iki devlet karşında, karşılıklı kabul görmüş

egemen pozisyonunun ve ikinci olarak da hakim devlet ile ona bağımlı ülkeler arasındaki olması gereken

sosyal sözleşmenin sorgulanması bu ülkelerdeki iç savaşlarda Rusya’nın farklı politikalar izlemesinin

temel nedeni olduğu iddia edilmektedir. Rusya’nın bu ülkelere yaptığı müdahalelerden sonra değişik bir

düzenleyici ilke- anarşik hiyerarşi ile farklı bir bölgesel düzen oluşmuştur. Bu düzen içerisinde Rusya bu

ülkelerin güvenliğini ikili yönde etkilemektedir: Kendine bağlı yeni ortaklarının güvenliklerini garanti

altına alırken, aynı zamanda eski bağımlı ülkelerin güvenliklerini tehdit etmektedir. Böylece bu çalışma

ile egemen bir ülkenin etki alanını barındıran bölgelerdeki güvenlik dinamikleri tartışılmış; hakim ve

egemen devletin bölgesel güvenliğini arttıran ya da zarar veren politikalar izleyip izleyemeyeceğini

belirlemede, egemen devletin kendine bağlı devletler karşısındaki konumu (egemen devlet ile

kendine bağlı devletler arasındaki hiyerarşik ilişkilerin derecesi ve yoğunluğu), siyasal seçkinlerindeki

değişiklikler de dahil olmak üzere bağımlı ülkelerdeki iç gelişmeler ve egemen devlete karşı diğer

büyük güçlerin konumları olmak üzere birbiriyle ilişkili üç faktörün rol oynadığı sonucuna varılmıştır.

Keywords

The Russian Federation, Georgia, Ukraine, International Hierarchy, Anarchical Hierarchy, Regional Security

References

• Allison, R. (2008) ‘Russia Resurgent? Moscow’s Campaign to ‘Coerce Georgia to Peace’, International Affairs, 84 (6) November: 1145-1171.
• Allison, R. (2009) ‘The Russian Case for Military Intervention in Georgia: International Law, Norms and Political Calculation’ European Security, 18 (2): 173-200.
• Allison, R. (2014) ‘Russian ‘Deniable’ Intervention in Ukraine: How and Why Russia Broke the Rules’ International Affairs, 90 (6): 1255-1297.
• Asmus, R. (2010) A Little War That Shook the World: Georgia, Russia, and the Future of the West, New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
• Başkan, A., B. Gültekin Punsmann. (2009) Abkhazia for the Integration of the Black Sea. Ankara: Tepav and ORSAM.
• Barbieri, K., O. Keshk. (2012) “International Trade 1870-2009”, Correlates of War Project Trade Data Set Codebook, Version 3.0, http://correlatesofwar.org, (Accessed on 11.08.2012).
• Bercovitch, J., J. Fretter. (2004) Regional Guide to International Conflict and Management from 1945 to 2003, Washington: CQ Press.
• Chudowsky, V. (2003) ‘Imperialism to Realism: The Role of the West in Russian Foreign Policy Towards Ukraine’, in G. P. Herd and J. D. P. Moroney (eds.) Security Dynamics in the Former Soviet Bloc, London: Routledge Curzon, 94-111.
• Civil Georgia (2007). “Russia Hands over Batumi Military Base to Georgia”, 7 November. http://www.civil. ge/eng/article.php?id=16321 (Accessed on 31.08.2012)
• Cooley, A. (2008) ‘How West Fail Georgia’, Current History, 107 (711): 342-347.
• Cornell, S. E. (2007) Georgia after the Rose Revolution: Geopolitical Predicament and Implications for US Policy, Strategic Studies Institute, February. http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/ PUB757.pdf (Accessed on 08.01.2017)
• Dabrowski, M. (2013) Monetary Policy Regimes in CIS Economies and Their Ability to Provide Price and Financial Stability, BOFIT Discussion Papers 8, Helsinki: Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition.
• Donaldson, R., J. L. Nodge. (2005) The Foreign Policy of Russia Changing Systems, Enduring Interests, New York: M.E. Sharpe.
• Egirovkaya, Y. (2015) “Worldwide Presence” [Mirovoe Prisutstvie], 16 December, Gazeta.ru, http://www. gazeta.ru/army/2015/12/16/7972523.shtml (Accessed on 14.04.2016)
• European Union External Action a. (n.d.) “EU Relations with Georgia”, http://www.eeas.europa.eu/georgia/ about/index_en.htm (Accessed on 25.04.2016)
• European Union External Action b. (n.d.) “EU Relations with Ukraine”, http://www.eeas.europa.eu/ukraine/ index_en.htm (Accessed on 25.04.2016)
• Gerrits, A.W.M., M. Bader. (2016) “Russian Patronage over Abkhazia and South Ossetia: Implications for Conflict Resolution”, East European Politics, 32 (3): 297-313.
• German, T. (2009) ‘David and Goliah: Georgia and Russia’s Coercive Diplomacy’, Defense Studies, 9 (2): 224- 241.
• IMF (2013) Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions 2013, Washington DC. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/nft/2013/areaers/ar2013.pdf (Accessed on 02.05.2016)
• IMF (2014) Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions 2014, Washington DC. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/nft/2014/areaers/ar2014.pdf (Accessed on 02.05.2016)
• Indans, I. (2007) “Relations of Russia and Georgia: Developments and Future Prospects”, Baltic Security and Defence Review, 9: 131-149. http://www.bdcol.ee/files/docs/bdrev13/6._Ivars_Indans- Relations_ of_Russia_and_Georgia.pdf, (Accessed on 26.06.2015)
• Jervalideze, L. (2006) Georgia: Russian Foreign Energy Policy and Implications for Georgia’s Energy Security, Edinburgh: GMB Publishing, Blue Ibex Ltd.
• Johnson, R. B., M. Swinburne. (1999) Exchange Rate Arrangements and Currency Convertibility: Developments and Issues, Washington DC: International Monetary Fund.
• King, C. (2008) “Five Day War Managing Moscow After the Georgia Crisis”, Foreign Affairs, 87, 2.
• Konashevych, O. (2004) “Entry into NATO has been Removed from the Military Doctrine of Ukraine”, BBC Ukranian, 26 July. http://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/domestic/story/2004/07/040726_doctrine_ military.shtml (Accessed on 22.04.2016)
• Kubicek, P. (2007) ‘Ukraine and the European Neighbourhood Policy: Can the EU Help the Orange Revolution Bear Fruit’, East European Quarterly, 41 (1): 1-23.
• Kucera, J. (2011) ‘Russian Military to Stay in Abkhazia, South Ossetia, 49 More Years’, Eurasianet.org, 10 October. http://www.eurasianet.org/node/64292, (Accessed on 02.07.2013).
• Lake, D. A. (2003) ‘The New Sovereignty in International Relations’, International Studies Review, 5 (3): 303- 323.
• Lake, D. A. (2007) ‘Escape from State of Nature Authority and Hierarchy in World Politics’, International Security, 32 (1): 47-79.
• Lake, D. A. (2009) ‘Regional Hierarchy: Authority and Local International Order, Review of International Studies, 35: 35-58.
• Lake, D. A., (2011) Hierarchy in International Relations Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
• Lynch, D. (2002) ‘Separatist States and Post-Soviet Conflicts’, International Affairs, 78 (4): 831-848.
• Maurer, T., S. Janz. (2014) ‘The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Cyber and Information Warfare in A Regional Context”, ISN ETH Zurich, 17 October, https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/187945/ISN_184345_en.pdf, (Accessed on 09.01.2017)
• Mearsheimer, J. J. (2014) “Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault: The Liberal Delusions That Provoked Putin”, Foreign Affairs, 93 (77): 1-12.
• Medvedev, D. (2008) Interview with Russian TV Channels (Channel One, Russia, NTV), 31 August, Sochi. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/48301 (Accessed on 14.04.2016)
• Minesashvili, S. (2016) “Narrating Identity: Belongingness and Alterity in Georgia’s Foreign Policy” in Kornely Kakachia and Alexander Markarov (eds.), Values and Identity as Sources of Foreign Policy in Armenia and Georgia, Tiblisi: Universal.
• Mission of Ukraine to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. (2015) “President Approved New Edition of Military Doctrine of Ukraine,” 25 September, http://nato.mfa.gov.ua/en/press-center/news/40325- prezident-zatverdiv-novu-redakciju-vojennoji-doktrini-ukrajini (Accessed on 25.01.2017)
• Mitchell, L., A. Cooley. (2010) ‘After August War: A New Strategy for US Engagement with Georgia’, the Harriman Review, 17 (3-4): 1-72.
• http://academiccommons.columbia.edu/catalog/ac%3A138653, (Accessed on 25.06.2015) National Statistics Office of Georgia (2015) External Trade, (Tiblisi), http://www.geostat.ge/index. php?action=page&p_id=137&lang=eng (Accessed on 05.12.2014)
• NATO (2002) “Statement by President of Georgia Eduard Shevardnadze at the EAPC Summit”, North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Prague, 22 November. http://www.nato.int/docu/speech/2002/ s021122h.htm (Accessed on 15.04.2016)
• NATO (2015) NATO’s Relations with Georgia Milestones in Relations, North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 23 March. http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_38988.htm (Accessed on 03.09.2015)
• Popsecu, N. (2011) EU Foreign Policy and Post-Soviet Conflicts: Stealth Intervention, New York: Routledge.
• Pourchot, G. (2008) Eurasia Rising Democracy and Independent in the Post-Soviet Space, Connecticut: Praeger.
• President of Ukraine- Petro Poroshenko (2015) “President Approved New Edition of Military Doctrine” Official Web-site, 24 September.
• http://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/prezident-zatverdiv-novu-redakciyu-voyennoyi-doktriniukrayi- 36019 (Accessed on 25.05.2016)
• Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. (2017) “Importer/Exporter TIV Tables”, http://armstrade. sipri.org/armstrade/page/values.php (Accessed on 09.04.2017)
• Schweller, R. L. (2004) “Unanswered Threats A Neoclassical Realist Theory of Underbalancing’, International Security, 29 (2): 159-201.
• Simon, J. (2009) “Ukraine Against Herself: To Be Euro-Atlantic, Eurasian or Neutral?”, Strategic Forum, 238: 1-11.
• http://mercury.ethz.ch/serviceengine/Files/ISN/98858/ipublicationdocument_singledocument/edb12f6dec55- 4ab7-8198-833b2c168924/en/SF238.pdf, (Accessed on 25.06.2015)
• Socor, V. (2007) ‘Georgian Flag Raised over Akhalkalaki’, Euraisa Daily Monitor, 4 (128). http://www. jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=32841&tx_ttnews[backPid]=171&no_ cache=1#.UmT3sxDuCW8. (Accessed on 21.10.2013)
• Soder, K. (2009) Sipri Fact Sheet Multilateral Peace Operations: Europe 2008. (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute -Sipri Multilateral Peace Operations Database), http://books.sipri.org/files/FS/ SIPRIFS0907E.pdf, (Accessed on 26.11.2014)
• Sokolov, A. (1997) ‘Russian Peace-Keeping Forces in the Post-Soviet Area’ in M. Kaldor and B. Vashee (eds.), Restructuring The Global Military Sector New Wars, World Institute for Development Economics Research. http://www.memo.ru/hr/hotpoints/peace/peacekeep.htm. (Accessed on 26.11.2014)
• Sokov, N. (2005) ‘The Withdrawal of Russian Military Bases from Georgia: Not Solving Anything’, Sonars Policy Memo, 363: 1-8.
• State Statistics Service of Ukraine. (2014) External Economic Activity, (Kiev, Ukraine) http://www.ukrstat. gov.ua/ (Accessed on 21.04.2016)
• Tsygankov, A. (2015), ‘Vladimir Putin’s Last Stand: the Sources of Russia’s Ukraine Policy’, Post-Soviet Affairs, 31 (4): 279- 303.
• Ukraine Presidency (2004). Military Doctrine of Ukraine, [Vоennu Dоktrinu Uкrаini], endorsed by the edict of the President of Ukraine, on June 15, 2004 [Ukаz Prеzidentа Ukrаini, Vid 15 chеrviya 2004], year/number [rоku N] 648/2004 (translated by Ostap Kin, 16.05.2012). http://zakon3.rada.gov.ua/ laws/show/648/2004/ed20040615?test=4/UMfPEGznhhh4h.Zih4rJWIHI48.s80msh8Ie6. (Accessed on 26.04.2012)
• Ukraine Presidency (2005) Issues Regarding the Military Doctrine of Ukraine [Питання Воєнної доктрини України], endorsed by the edict of the President of Ukraine, on September 26, 2005 [Ukаz Prеzidentа Ukrаini, Vid 26 veresen 2005], year/number [rоku N] 702/2005. http://zakon3. rada.gov.ua/laws/show/702/2005?test=4/UMfPEGznhhh4h.Zih4rJWIHI48.s80msh8Ie6 (Accessed on 22.04.2016)
• Ukraine Presidency (2015) Strategy of National Security of Ukraine [Про Стратегію національної безпеки України], endorsed by the edict of the President of Ukraine, on May 26, 2015 [Ukаz Prеzidentа Ukrаini, Vid 26 moje 2015], year/number [rоku N] 287/2015.http://zakon5.rada.gov.ua/laws/ show/287/2015 (Accessed on 22.05.2016)
• USAID- U.S. Agency for International Development (2017) US Overseas Loans and Grants: Obligations and Loan Authorizations (Greenbook) July 1, 1945–September 30, 2015, 10 January. https://explorer. usaid.gov/reports-greenbook.html (Accessed on 02.05.2016)
• US Army- Army Financial Management. (2016) “Departmental Reporting- Cooperative Threat Reduction Account, Defense”, 2 August, http://asafm.army.mil/Documents/OfficeDocuments/Budget/ Guidances/dfas/709701/fy2017/docs/2-0134.doc (Accessed on 09.04.2017)
• Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine [Verkhovna Rada Uкrаini] (2010) Law of Ukraine on the Basis of Internal and External Policy [Prо zаsаdi vnutrіshnоi і zоvnіshnоi pоlіtiki], (01.07.2010, № 2411-VI.) (translated by Ostap Kin, 16.05.2012).http://zakon3.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/2411-17, (Accessed on 26.04.2012)