Restricted effects of climate change on annual streamflow of Sarıçay stream (Çanakkale, Turkey)

Year 2016, Volume: 5 Issue: 1, 7 - 11, 22.07.2016

Semih Kale , Tuba Ejder Secil Acar , Olcay Hisar , Fatih Mutlu

https://izlik.org/JA83ZU44LH

Abstract

The global warming and the associated climate change lead to significant problems related to sustainability of natural resources. The observations and research on this issue have shown that most of the water resources have been affected by this phenomenon. These effects of global warming on water resources can be listed as decreased amount of water and droughts in mid-latitude belt. In the current study the changes in the flows of Sarıçay stream in Çanakkale and the time series of the climate parameters related to the region were determined and trends of these variations were estimated. A 34-years data set regarding the river flows between 1978 and 2011 as well as some annual climate parameters such as temperature, evaporation and precipitation have been collected by three meteorological observation stations (Bozcaada, Gökçeada, Çanakkale) for 43 years were used. Pettitt change-point analysis was used to determine the change points for streamflow and climatic parameters. Box-Jenkins method and the ARIMA model were used for trend analyses. Results showed that there was a decrease in precipitation and streamflow on the contrary an increase in evaporation and temperature. However, these changes were statistically insignificant (P > 0.05). In conclusion, climate change effects on river streamflow could be unstable and many factors such as latitudinal location, anthropogenic effects, agricultural activities, population density and residential areas could affect the streamflow.

Keywords

Climate change , Change-point analysis , Trend analysis , Sarıçay , Streamflow

References

• Akbulut, M., Kaya, H., Çelik, E.Ş., Odabaşı, D.A., Sağır Odabaşı, S. and K. Selvi. 2010. Assessment of surface water quality in the Atikhisar Reservoir and Sarıçay Creek (Çanakkale, Turkey). Ekoloji, 19:139-149.
• Alcamo, J., Moreno, J.M., Nováky, B., Bindi, M., Corobov, R., Devoy, R.J.N., Giannakopoulos, C., Martin, E., Olesen, J.E. and A. Shvidenko. 2007. Europe. In: Parry, M.L., Canziani, O.F., Palutikof, J., van der Linden, P. and C. Hanson (Eds.), Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, USA, pp. 541-580.
• Atalay, İ. 1986. Uygulamalı Hidrografya I. Ege Üniversitesi Edebiyat Fakültesi Yayınları No: 38, Ege Üniversitesi Basımevi, İzmir, Turkey.
• Bahadir, M. 2011. A statistical analysis of the flow changes of Kızılırmak River. Turkish Studies - International Periodical for the Languages, Literature and History of Turkish or Turkic, 6:1339-1356.
• Bates, B.C., Kundzewicz, Z.W., Wu, S. and J.P. Palutikof. 2008. Climate change and water. 6th Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, p. 210.
• Box, G.E.P. and G. Jenkins. 1976. Time series analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden Day, San Francisco.
• Chen, Y. and Z. Xu. 2005. Plausible impact of global climate change on water resources in the Tarim River Basin. Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences, 48:65-73.
• Çiçek, İ. and M. Ataol. 2009. A new approach for determining the water potential of Turkey. Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi, 7:51-64.
• Dixon, M.D., Stromberg, J.C., Price, J.T., Galbraith, H., Freimer, A.K. and E.W. Larsen. 2009. Potential effects of climate change on the upper San Pedro riparian ecosystem. In: Stromberg, J.C., Tellman, B. (Eds.), Ecology and Conservation of the San Pedro River. University of Arizona Press, Tucson, Arizona, USA, pp. 57-72.
• Durdu, Ö.F. 2010. Effects of climate change on water resources of the Büyük Menderes river basin, western Turkey. Turkish Journal of Agriculture and Forestry, 34:319-332.
• Dügel, M. and N. Kazanci. 2004. Assessment of water quality of the Büyük Menderes River (Turkey) by using ordination and classification of macro invertebrates and environmental variables. Journal of Freshwater Ecology, 19:605-612.
• Gao, P., Mu, X.M., Wang, F. and R. Li. 2011. Changes in streamflow and sediment discharge and the response to human activities in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15:1-10.
• Harrison, P.A., Berry, P.M. and T.P. Dawson. 2003. Modelling natural resource responses to climate change (the MONARCH project): an introduction. Nature Conservation, 11:3-4.
• Herawati, H., Suripin and Suharyanto. 2015. Impact of climate change on streamflow in the tropical lowland of Kapuas River, West Borneo, Indonesia. Procedia Engineering, 125:185-192.
• Hisar, O., Kale, S. and Ö. Özen. 2015. Sustainability of effective use of water sources in Turkey. In: Leal Filho, W., Sümer, V. (Eds.), Sustainable Water Use and Management: Examples of New Approaches and Perspectives. Springer International Publishing, Switzerland, pp. 205-227.
• IPCC, 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, USA, p. 881.
• IPCC, 2007. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Working Group II Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, p. 976.
• Isaak, D.J., Wollrab, S., Horan, D.L. and G.L. Chandler. 2012. Climate change effects on stream and river temperatures across the northwest U.S. from 1980–2009 and implications for salmonid fishes. Climatic change, 113:499-524.
• Jackson, C.R., Meister, R. and C. Prudhomme. 2011. Modelling the effects of climate change and its uncertainty on UK Chalk groundwater resources from an ensemble of global climate model projections. Journal of Hydrology, 399:12-28.
• Kaçan, E., Ülkü, G. and F. Turan. 2007. Total pollution load discharged to creeks and River Buyuk Menderes near Denizli City, International Congress on River Basin Management. General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works, Antalya, TURKEY, pp. 54-63.
• Kahya, E. and S. Kalaycı. 2004. Trend analysis of streamflow in Turkey. Journal of Hydrology, 289:128-144.
• Kaya, H., Akbulut, M., Selvi, K., İleri, B. and M. Duysak. 2014a. Heavy Metal Accumulation, Biomarker Responses and Sensitivity to Oxidative Stress in Isopoda Asellus aquaticus from Saricay Creek (Canakkale-Turkey). Ekoloji, 23:8-15.
• Kaya, H., Selvi, K., Akbulut, M. and A. Tulgar. 2014b. The use of biomarkers to determine the effects of water pollution on the odonata larvae, Aeshna affinis, in Sariçay Creek (Çanakkale-Turkey). Fresenius Environmental Bulletin, 23:57-63.
• Kendall, M.G. 1955. Rank Correlation Methods. 2nd ed. Hafner Publishing Co., New York.
• Koçman, A. and S. Sütgibi. 2012. Hydrograpic/hydrologic characteristics of Gediz river basin in the context of the environmental components – problems and suggestions. Eastern Geographical Review, 28:155-174.
• Kojiri, T., Hamaguchi, T. and M. Ode. 2008. Assessment of global warming impacts on water resources and ecology of a river basin in Japan. Hydro-environment Research, 1:164-175.
• Mann, H.B. 1945. Nonparametric Tests Against Trend. Econometrica, 13:245-259.
• Ozkul, S. 2009. Assessment of climate change effects in Aegean river basins: the case of Gediz and Buyuk Menderes Basins. Climatic change, 97:253-283.
• Ozkul, S., Fistikoglu, O. and N. Harmancioglu. 2008. Evaluation of climate change effects on water resources in the case of Gediz and Büyük Menderes river basins, TMMOB 2. Su Politikaları Kongresi, Ankara, TURKEY, pp. 309-322.
• Pettitt, A.N. 1979. A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C (Applied Statistics), 28:126-135.
• Pumo, D., Caracciolo, D., Viola, F. and Noto, L.V. 2016. Climate change effects on the hydrological regime of small non-perennial river basins. Science of The Total Environment Part A, 542:76-92.
• Sensoy, S., Demircan, M. and I. Alan. 2008. Trends in Turkey Climate Extreme Indices from 1971 to 2004, Third International Scientific Conference on Water Observation and Information Systems for Decision Support (BALWOIS), Ohrid, Macedonia, pp. 1-9.
• Sütgibi, S. 2015. Büyük Menderes havzasının sıcaklık, yağış ve akım değerlerindeki değişimler ve eğilimler. Marmara Coğrafya Dergisi, 31:398-414.
• Türkeş, M. and Z. Acar Deniz. 2011. Climatology of South Marmara Division (North West Anatolia) and observed variations and trends. International Journal of Human Sciences, 8:1579-1600.
• Türkeş, M., Koç, T. and F. Sariş. 2009. Spatiotemporal variability of precipitation total series over Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 29:1056-1074.
• Ünal, Y. and B. Önol. 2011. SRES A1B Senaryosu altında 2010-2040 yılları arası Türkiye iklim projeksiyonları, 5th Atmospheric Science Symposium, Istanbul Technical University, pp. 161-172.
• Yercan, M., Dorsan, F. and M. Ul. 2004. Comparative analysis of performance criteria in irrigation schemes: a case study of Gediz river basin in Turkey. Agricultural water management, 66:259-266.
• Zhang, X., Aguilar, E., Sensoy, S., Melkonyan, H., Tagiyeva, U., Ahmed, N., Kutaladze, N., Rahimzadeh, F., Taghipour, A., Hantosh, T.H., Albert, P., Semawi, M., Ali, M.K., Said Al-Shabibi, M.H., Al-Oulan, Z., Zatari, T., Al Dean Khelet, I., Hamoud, S., Sagir, R., Demircan, M., Eken, M., Adiguzel, M., Alexander, L., Peterson, T.C. and T. Wallis. 2005. Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 110:1-12.
• Zhou, Y., Shi, C., Fan, X. and W. Shao. 2015. The influence of climate change and anthropogenic activities on annual runoff of Huangfuchuan basin in northwest China. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 120:137-146.