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Temporal Volatility of Brent Oil Prices and Interrelation With Maritime Traffic Density in the Turkish Straits During COVID-19 Crisis

Year 2024, Volume: 13 Issue: 3, 225 - 233, 30.09.2024

Ümüt Yiğit

https://doi.org/10.33714/masteb.1515193

Abstract

This research evaluated variations in Brent oil prices and the interrelation with maritime traffic density in the Turkish Straits during the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of commercial ships that made non-stop over passage through the Turkish Straits in the last 5 years, covering the COVID-19 -and post-pandemic periods with economic instabilities was investigated along with variables of vessel characteristics such as; gross tonnage, size and type of vessel loads. Results of the present study reveal that the maritime traffic density between 2019 and 2023, was influenced by the pandemic crisis, when harsh quarantine measures of lockdown and curfews in the first shock wave. In the aftermath, conflicts between Ukraine and Russia led to economic recession or upheaval with instabilities in Brent oil prices. For the period examined in this study, the number of non-stop over passage vessels and gross tonnages used the Turkish Straits were affected by the pandemic outbreak and Brent oil price variations. The number of vessels decreased by 5.22% from 84,871 to 80,440 during the epidemic in 2020, and by 5.38% from 43.342 to 42.340 during the global recession in 2022. Overall, the number of non-stop over passage vessels using the Turkish Straits between 2019 and 2023 declined by 1.15%, while the gross tonnage and ship length increased by 3.44% and 13.24%, respectively. In total, the number of non-specific tankers (TTA) and those carrying chemicals (TCH) increased by 2.92% and 10.97%, respectively, but a 13.25% decrease was noted for the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) tankers over the 5 years. Considering that the world trade network is largely dependent on maritime transportation, identifying the changes in maritime transportation with the interrelation of Brent oil during global crises may provide important data for strategy building of best trade management with foresights to world economic crises.

Keywords

Brent petrol Economic crisis Marine transport Pandemic Shipping industry Turkish straits

References

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  • Boldea, C. R., Boldea, B. I., & Iancu, T. (2023). The Pandemic waves’ impact on the crude oil price and the rise of consumer price index: Case study for six European countries. Sustainability, 15, 6537. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15086537
  • Fan, L., & Li, H. (2015). Volatility analysis and forecasting models of crude oil prices: A review. International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 38(1-3), 5-17. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJGEI.2015.069481
  • Halpern, B. S., Frazier, M., Afflerbach, J., Lowndes, J. S., Micheli, F., O’Hara, C., Scarborough, C., & Selkoe, K. A. (2019). Recent pace of change in human impact on the world’s ocean. Scientific Reports, 9, 11609. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-47201-9
  • Jefferson, M. (2020). A crude future? COVID-19s challenges for oil demand, supply and prices. Energy Research & Social Science, 68, 101669. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101669
  • Jouffray, J. B., Blasiak, R., Norström, A. V., Österblom, H., & Nyström, M. (2020). The blue acceleration: The trajectory of human expansion into the ocean. One Earth 2, 43–54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2019.12.016
  • Kuik, F., Adolfsen, J. F., Lis, E. M., & Meyler, A. (2022). Energy price developments in and out of the COVID-19 pandemic - from commodity prices to consumer prices. ECB Economic Bulletin, 4/2022. Retrieved on July 02, 2024, from https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/economic-bulletin/articles/2022/html/ecb.ebart202204_01~7b32d31b29.en.html
  • March, D., Metcalfe, K., Tintoré, J., & Godley, B. J. (2021). Tracking the global reduction of marine traffic during the COVID-19 pandemic. Nature Communications, 12, 2415. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22423-6
  • McCauley, D. J., Woods, P., Sullivan, B., Bergman, B., Jablonicky, C., Roan, A., Hirshfield, M., Boerder, K., & Worm, B., (2016). Ending hide and seek at sea: New technologies could revolutionize ocean observation. Science, 351, 1148–1150. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad5686
  • Michail, N. A., & Melas, K. D. (2020). Shipping markets in turmoil: An analysis of the Covid-19 outbreak and its implications. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 7, 100178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2020.100178
  • Moore, T. J., Redfern, J. V., Carver, M., Hastings, S., Adams, J. D., & Silber, G. K. (2018). Exploring ship traffic variability off California. Ocean and Coastal Management, 163, 515-527. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2018.03.010
  • MTI. (2024). Türk Boğazları Gemi Geçiş İstatistikleri [Turkish Straits Ship Passage Statistics]. Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure, Republic of Türkiye. Retrieved on July 04, 2024, from https://denizcilikistatistikleri.uab.gov.tr/turk-bogazlari-gemi-gecis-istatistikleri
  • Sardain, A., Sardain, E., & Leung, B. (2019). Global forecasts of shipping traffic and biological invasions to 2050. Nature Sustainability, 2, 274-282. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0245-y
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  • Statista. (2024e). Lowest daily closing price of crude oil types worldwide during the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. Retrieved on July 10, 2024, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/466293/lowest-crude-oil-prices-due-to-covid-19/
  • TEMS. (2008). Executive summary - Impact of high oil prices on freight transportation: Modal shift potential in five corridors. Transportation Economics & Management Systems, Inc. Maritime Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation. October 2008. Retrieved on July 09, 2024, from https://www.maritime.dot.gov/sites/marad.dot.gov/files/docs/resources/3761/modalshiftstudy-executivesummary.pdf
  • Tournadre, J. (2014). Anthropogenic pressure on the open ocean: The growth of ship traffic revealed by altimeter data analysis. Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 7924–7932. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061786
  • UNCTAD. (2010). Oil prices and maritime freight rates: An empirical investigation. Technical Report by the UNCTAD secretariat. UNCTAD/DTL/TLB/2009/2. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. 1 April 2010. Retrieved on July 08, 2024, from https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/dtltlb20092_en.pdf
  • UNCTAD. (2021). Review of Maritime Transport 2021. The UN Publications, UNCTAD/RMT/2021. United Nations, Geneva 2021. Retrieved on July 08, 2024, from https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2021_en_0.pdf
  • UNCTAD. (2022). Project Report: Phase II of the United Nations Development Account (UNDA) project on “Transport and trade connectivity in the age of pandemics: Contactless, seamless and collaborative UN solutions”. UNCTAD/TCS/DTL/INF/2022/1. Retrieved on July 07, 2024, from https://unctad.org/en/Pages/DTL/TTL/Infrastructure-and-Services.aspx
  • Verschuur, J., Koks, E. E., & Hall, J. W. (2022). Ports’ criticality in international trade and global supply-chains. Nature Communications, 13, 4351. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32070-0
  • Vicente-Cera, I., Acevedo-Merino, A., López-Ramírez, J. A., & Nebot, E. (2020). Use of AIS data for the environmental characterization of world cruise ship traffic. International Journal of Sustainable Transport, 14, 465-474. https://doi.org/10.1080/15568318.2019.1575494
  • Xing, X., Cong, Y., Wang, Y., & Wang, X. (2023). The impact of COVID-19 and war in Ukraine on energy prices of oil and natural gas. Sustainability, 15, 14208. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151914208
  • Yiğit, Ü. (2024). Impacts of Brent crude oil price fluctuations on global aquaculture production during World economic crises. Marine Science and Technology Bulletin, 13(1), 102-110. https://doi.org/10.33714/masteb.1441264
  • Yigit, Ü., & Kusku, H. (2022). Comparison of production trends in Japan with long history in aquaculture and challenging success of Türkiye as a fairly new country in fish farming. Marine Reports, 1(2), 99-109. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7393998

Year 2024, Volume: 13 Issue: 3, 225 - 233, 30.09.2024

Ümüt Yiğit

https://doi.org/10.33714/masteb.1515193

Abstract

References

  • Amri Amamou, S., & Aguir Bargaoui, S. (2022). Energy markets responds to COVID-19 pandemic. Resources Policy, 76, 102551. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102551
  • Boldea, C. R., Boldea, B. I., & Iancu, T. (2023). The Pandemic waves’ impact on the crude oil price and the rise of consumer price index: Case study for six European countries. Sustainability, 15, 6537. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15086537
  • Fan, L., & Li, H. (2015). Volatility analysis and forecasting models of crude oil prices: A review. International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 38(1-3), 5-17. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJGEI.2015.069481
  • Halpern, B. S., Frazier, M., Afflerbach, J., Lowndes, J. S., Micheli, F., O’Hara, C., Scarborough, C., & Selkoe, K. A. (2019). Recent pace of change in human impact on the world’s ocean. Scientific Reports, 9, 11609. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-47201-9
  • Jefferson, M. (2020). A crude future? COVID-19s challenges for oil demand, supply and prices. Energy Research & Social Science, 68, 101669. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101669
  • Jouffray, J. B., Blasiak, R., Norström, A. V., Österblom, H., & Nyström, M. (2020). The blue acceleration: The trajectory of human expansion into the ocean. One Earth 2, 43–54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2019.12.016
  • Kuik, F., Adolfsen, J. F., Lis, E. M., & Meyler, A. (2022). Energy price developments in and out of the COVID-19 pandemic - from commodity prices to consumer prices. ECB Economic Bulletin, 4/2022. Retrieved on July 02, 2024, from https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/economic-bulletin/articles/2022/html/ecb.ebart202204_01~7b32d31b29.en.html
  • March, D., Metcalfe, K., Tintoré, J., & Godley, B. J. (2021). Tracking the global reduction of marine traffic during the COVID-19 pandemic. Nature Communications, 12, 2415. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22423-6
  • McCauley, D. J., Woods, P., Sullivan, B., Bergman, B., Jablonicky, C., Roan, A., Hirshfield, M., Boerder, K., & Worm, B., (2016). Ending hide and seek at sea: New technologies could revolutionize ocean observation. Science, 351, 1148–1150. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad5686
  • Michail, N. A., & Melas, K. D. (2020). Shipping markets in turmoil: An analysis of the Covid-19 outbreak and its implications. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 7, 100178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2020.100178
  • Moore, T. J., Redfern, J. V., Carver, M., Hastings, S., Adams, J. D., & Silber, G. K. (2018). Exploring ship traffic variability off California. Ocean and Coastal Management, 163, 515-527. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2018.03.010
  • MTI. (2024). Türk Boğazları Gemi Geçiş İstatistikleri [Turkish Straits Ship Passage Statistics]. Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure, Republic of Türkiye. Retrieved on July 04, 2024, from https://denizcilikistatistikleri.uab.gov.tr/turk-bogazlari-gemi-gecis-istatistikleri
  • Sardain, A., Sardain, E., & Leung, B. (2019). Global forecasts of shipping traffic and biological invasions to 2050. Nature Sustainability, 2, 274-282. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0245-y
  • Statista. (2024a). Ocean shipping worldwide - statistics & facts. Retrieved on July 10, 2024, from https://www.statista.com/topics/1728/ocean-shipping/
  • Statista. (2024b). Number of transits in the Panama Canal from 2014 to 2022. Retrieved on July 09, 2024, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/710163/transits-panama-canal/
  • Statista. (2024c). Number of ships passing through the Suez Canal from 1976 to 2022. Retrieved on July 08, 2024, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1252568/number-of-transits-in-the-suez-cana-annually/
  • Statista. (2024d). Average annual Brent crude oil price from 1976 to 2023. Retrieved on July 08, 2024, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/262860/uk-brent-crude-oil-price-changes-since-1976/
  • Statista. (2024e). Lowest daily closing price of crude oil types worldwide during the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. Retrieved on July 10, 2024, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/466293/lowest-crude-oil-prices-due-to-covid-19/
  • TEMS. (2008). Executive summary - Impact of high oil prices on freight transportation: Modal shift potential in five corridors. Transportation Economics & Management Systems, Inc. Maritime Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation. October 2008. Retrieved on July 09, 2024, from https://www.maritime.dot.gov/sites/marad.dot.gov/files/docs/resources/3761/modalshiftstudy-executivesummary.pdf
  • Tournadre, J. (2014). Anthropogenic pressure on the open ocean: The growth of ship traffic revealed by altimeter data analysis. Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 7924–7932. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061786
  • UNCTAD. (2010). Oil prices and maritime freight rates: An empirical investigation. Technical Report by the UNCTAD secretariat. UNCTAD/DTL/TLB/2009/2. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. 1 April 2010. Retrieved on July 08, 2024, from https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/dtltlb20092_en.pdf
  • UNCTAD. (2021). Review of Maritime Transport 2021. The UN Publications, UNCTAD/RMT/2021. United Nations, Geneva 2021. Retrieved on July 08, 2024, from https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2021_en_0.pdf
  • UNCTAD. (2022). Project Report: Phase II of the United Nations Development Account (UNDA) project on “Transport and trade connectivity in the age of pandemics: Contactless, seamless and collaborative UN solutions”. UNCTAD/TCS/DTL/INF/2022/1. Retrieved on July 07, 2024, from https://unctad.org/en/Pages/DTL/TTL/Infrastructure-and-Services.aspx
  • Verschuur, J., Koks, E. E., & Hall, J. W. (2022). Ports’ criticality in international trade and global supply-chains. Nature Communications, 13, 4351. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32070-0
  • Vicente-Cera, I., Acevedo-Merino, A., López-Ramírez, J. A., & Nebot, E. (2020). Use of AIS data for the environmental characterization of world cruise ship traffic. International Journal of Sustainable Transport, 14, 465-474. https://doi.org/10.1080/15568318.2019.1575494
  • Xing, X., Cong, Y., Wang, Y., & Wang, X. (2023). The impact of COVID-19 and war in Ukraine on energy prices of oil and natural gas. Sustainability, 15, 14208. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151914208
  • Yiğit, Ü. (2024). Impacts of Brent crude oil price fluctuations on global aquaculture production during World economic crises. Marine Science and Technology Bulletin, 13(1), 102-110. https://doi.org/10.33714/masteb.1441264
  • Yigit, Ü., & Kusku, H. (2022). Comparison of production trends in Japan with long history in aquaculture and challenging success of Türkiye as a fairly new country in fish farming. Marine Reports, 1(2), 99-109. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7393998
There are 28 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Maritime Business Administration
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Ümüt Yiğit 0000-0002-1378-2422

Publication Date September 30, 2024
Submission Date July 12, 2024
Acceptance Date September 17, 2024
Published in Issue Year 2024 Volume: 13 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Yiğit, Ü. (2024). Temporal Volatility of Brent Oil Prices and Interrelation With Maritime Traffic Density in the Turkish Straits During COVID-19 Crisis. Marine Science and Technology Bulletin, 13(3), 225-233. https://doi.org/10.33714/masteb.1515193
AMA Yiğit Ü. Temporal Volatility of Brent Oil Prices and Interrelation With Maritime Traffic Density in the Turkish Straits During COVID-19 Crisis. Mar. Sci. Tech. Bull. September 2024;13(3):225-233. doi:10.33714/masteb.1515193
Chicago Yiğit, Ümüt. “Temporal Volatility of Brent Oil Prices and Interrelation With Maritime Traffic Density in the Turkish Straits During COVID-19 Crisis”. Marine Science and Technology Bulletin 13, no. 3 (September 2024): 225-33. https://doi.org/10.33714/masteb.1515193.
EndNote Yiğit Ü (September 1, 2024) Temporal Volatility of Brent Oil Prices and Interrelation With Maritime Traffic Density in the Turkish Straits During COVID-19 Crisis. Marine Science and Technology Bulletin 13 3 225–233.
IEEE Ü. Yiğit, “Temporal Volatility of Brent Oil Prices and Interrelation With Maritime Traffic Density in the Turkish Straits During COVID-19 Crisis”, Mar. Sci. Tech. Bull., vol. 13, no. 3, pp. 225–233, 2024, doi: 10.33714/masteb.1515193.
ISNAD Yiğit, Ümüt. “Temporal Volatility of Brent Oil Prices and Interrelation With Maritime Traffic Density in the Turkish Straits During COVID-19 Crisis”. Marine Science and Technology Bulletin 13/3 (September 2024), 225-233. https://doi.org/10.33714/masteb.1515193.
JAMA Yiğit Ü. Temporal Volatility of Brent Oil Prices and Interrelation With Maritime Traffic Density in the Turkish Straits During COVID-19 Crisis. Mar. Sci. Tech. Bull. 2024;13:225–233.
MLA Yiğit, Ümüt. “Temporal Volatility of Brent Oil Prices and Interrelation With Maritime Traffic Density in the Turkish Straits During COVID-19 Crisis”. Marine Science and Technology Bulletin, vol. 13, no. 3, 2024, pp. 225-33, doi:10.33714/masteb.1515193.
Vancouver Yiğit Ü. Temporal Volatility of Brent Oil Prices and Interrelation With Maritime Traffic Density in the Turkish Straits During COVID-19 Crisis. Mar. Sci. Tech. Bull. 2024;13(3):225-33.
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