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THE NEXUS BETWEEN COVID-19 AND STOCK RETURNS: EVIDENCE FROM SELECTED MENA COUNTRIES

Year 2022, , 113 - 127, 30.06.2022
https://doi.org/10.31460/mbdd.1033349

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between COVID-19 measured by growth in number of weekly confirmed new cases and stock returns of the major indices in selected Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. To test the influence of COVID-19 on stock returns, this study uses panel data methodology using weekly data between 19 March 2020 and 31 December 2020. Contrary to expectations, our findings fail to demonstrate a significant link between stock market index returns and COVID-19, which is proxied by the growth in weekly confirmed new cases. Additionally, regarding the control variables, whereas no relationship is documented between Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) and selected countries’ stock index returns, 5-year Sovereign Credit Default Swap (CDS) figures of the selected countries are found to be negatively and significantly related with the main variable of interest.

References

  • Alzyadat, J. A. and Asfoura, E. (2021). The Effect of COVID-19 Pandemic on Stock Market: An Empirical Study in Saudi Arabia, Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8(5), 913–921.
  • Arafa, A. and Alber, N. (2020). The impact of coronavirus pandemic on stock market return: The case of the MENA Region, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 12(12), 100-106.
  • Ashraf, B. N. (2020). Stock Markets’ Reaction to COVID-19: Cases or Fatalities?, Research in International Business and Finance, 54, 1-7.
  • Ashraf, B. N. (2021). Stock Markets’ Reaction to Covid-19: Moderating Role of National Culture, Finance Research Letters, 41, 1-9.
  • Aslam, F. and Kang H. G. (2015). How Different Terrorist Attacks Affect Stock Markets, Defence and Peace Economics, 26(6), 634-648.
  • Baltagi, B. H. (2013). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, 5th Edition, John Wiley & Sons Ltd., Chichester.
  • Bash, A. (2020). International Evidence of COVID-19 and Stock Market Returns: An Event Study Analysis, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 10(4), 34-38.
  • Ben-Ahmed, K., Ayadi, I. and Hamad, S. B. (2022). COVID-19 Impact on Digital Companies’ Stock Return: A Dynamic Data Analysis, Finance Research Letters, 46(Part A).
  • Bourdeau-Brien, M. and Kryzanowski, L. (2017). The Impact of Natural Disasters on the Stock Returns and Volatilities of Local Firms, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 63, 259-270.
  • Brounen, D. and Derwall, J. (2010). The Impact of Terrorist Attacks on International Stock Markets, European Financial Management, 16(4), 585-598.
  • Chen, M. H., Jang, S. C. and Kim, W. G. (2007). The Impact of the SARS Outbreak on Taiwanese Hotel Stock Performance: An Event-study Approach, International Journal of Hospitality Management, 26(1), 200-212.
  • Guo, M., Kuai, Y. and Liu, X. (2020). Stock Market Response to Environmental Policies: Evidence from Heavily Polluting Firms in China, Economic Modelling, 86, 306-316.
  • He, Q., Liu, J., Wang, S. and Yu, J. (2020). The Impact of COVID-19 on Stock Markets, Economic and Political Studies, 8(3), 275-288.
  • Herwany, I., Febrian, E., Anwar, M. and Gunardi, A. (2021). The Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Stock Market Returns in Indonesia Stock Exchange, Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8(3), 39-47.
  • Ichev, R. and Marinc, M. (2018). Stock Prices and Geographic Proximity of Information: Evidence from the Ebola Outbreak, International Review of Financial Analysis, 56, 153-166.
  • Kapadia, N., and Pu, X. (2021). Limited Arbitrage between Equity and Credit Markets, Journal of Financial Economics, 105, 542-564.
  • Karim, R. and Saba, S, A. (2021). COVID-19 and Stock Return: Empirical Evidence from Developing Economy, International Journal of Management, Accounting and Economics, 8(6), 368-399.
  • Kowalewski, O. and Śpiewanowski, P. (2020). Stock Market Response to Potash Mine Disasters, Journal of Commodity Markets, 20.
  • Lee, C. C., Lee, C. C. and Wu, V. Y. (2021). The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Hospitality Stock Returns in China. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 1-14.
  • Malik, S., Hussain, S. and Ahmed, S. (2009). Impact of Political Event on Trading volume and Stock Returns: The Case of KSE, International Review of Business Research Papers, 5(4), 354-364.
  • Ngoc, H. D., Thuy, V. V. T. and Van C. L. (2021). Covid-19 Pandemic and Abnormal Stock Returns of Listed Companies in Vietnam, Cogent Business and Management, 8(1), 1941587.
  • Nippani, S. and Washer, K. M. (2004). SARS: A Non-event for Affected Countries’ Stock Markets?, Applied Financial Economics, 14(15), 1105-1110.
  • Obradović, S. and Tomić, N. (2017). The Effect of Presidential Election in the USA on Stock Return Flow-A Study of a Political Event, Economic Research, 30(1), 112-124.
  • Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations (Access Date: 10.11.2021)
  • Sarwar, G. (2021). Is VIX an investor fear gauge in BRIC equity markets?, Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 22(3), 55-65.
  • Singh, B., Dhall, R., Narang, S. and Rawat, S. (2020). The Outbreak of COVID-19 and Stock Market Responses: An Event Study and Panel Data Analysis for G-20 Countries, Global Business Review, 1-26.
  • Takyi, O. and Bentum-Ennin, I. (2021). The Impact of COVID-19 on Stock Market Performance in Africa: A Bayesian Structural Time Series Approach, Journal of Economics and Business, 115.
  • Tatoğlu, F. Y. (2020). Panel Veri Ekonometrisi Stata Uygulamalı, 5. Baskı, Beta Yayınları, İstanbul.
  • Trutwein, P., Ramchander, S., and Schiereck, D. (2011). Jumps in Credit Default Swap Spreads and Stock Returns, Journal of Fixed Income, 20, 56-70.
  • Waheed, R., Sarwar, S., Sarwar, S. and Khan, M. K. (2020). The impact of COVID-19 on Karachi Stock Exchange: Quantile-on-quantile Approach Using Secondary and Predicted Data, Journal of Public Affairs, 20(4), 1-6.
  • Whaley, R. E. (1993). Derivatives on Market Volatility: Hedging Tools Long Overdue, Journal of Derivatives, 1, 71-84.
  • Whaley, R.E., (2000). The Investor Fear Gauge, Journal of Portfolio Management, 26, 12–17.
  • Wooldridge, J. M. (2002). Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data, The MIT Press.
  • World Health Organization (WHO). (2020). Virtual Press Conference on COVID-19, 11 March 2020, 1-17.
  • World Health Organization (WHO). https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019, (Access Date: 10.11.2021).
  • Xu, L. (2021). Stock Return and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Canada and the US. Finance Research Letters, 38, 1-7.
  • Xu, X.D., Zeng, S.X. and Tam, C.M. (2021). Stock Market’s Reaction to Disclosure of Environmental Violations: Evidence from China, Journal of Business Ethics, 107, 227–237.
  • Yang, Y. J., and Samitas, A. (2020). Investor behavior, stock returns and CDS spreads: evidence from foreign and domestic investors in Korea, International Journal of Managerial Finance, 17(4), 497-521.
  • Zoungrana, T. B., Toe, D, L. and Toe, M. (2021). Covid-19 Outbreak and Stocks Return on the West African Economic and Monetary Union's Stock Market: An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Through the Event Study Approach, International Journal of Finance and Economics, January, 1-19.

COVID-19 VE HİSSE GETİRİLERİ ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: MENA ÜLKELERİ ÖRNEĞİ

Year 2022, , 113 - 127, 30.06.2022
https://doi.org/10.31460/mbdd.1033349

Abstract

Bu çalışma ile seçili Orta Doğu ve Kuzey Afrika Ülkeleri’ne (MENA) ait ana hisse senedi endeks getirileri ile COVID-19 göstergesi olarak kullanılan haftalık vaka sayılarındaki artış arasında bir ilişki olup olmadığı araştırılmıştır. COVID-19’un borsa endeks getirileri üzerindeki etkisini test etmek için 19 Mart-31 Aralık 2020 tarihlerini kapsayan dönemde haftalık veri seti kullanılarak panel veri analizi uygulanmıştır. Beklenenin aksine, vakalardaki haftalık artış ile ölçülen COVID-19 ve hisse senedi Endeks getirisi arasında anlamlı bir ilişki bulunamamıştır. Kontrol değişkenlerine ait sonuçlar ise korku endeksi olarak bilinen volatilite endeksinin (VIX) hisse senedi getirisi üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisinin olmadığını, kredi temerrüt takası olarak bilinen CDS değerleri ile endeks getirisi arasında ise anlamlı ve negatif bir ilişki olduğunu göstermiştir.

References

  • Alzyadat, J. A. and Asfoura, E. (2021). The Effect of COVID-19 Pandemic on Stock Market: An Empirical Study in Saudi Arabia, Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8(5), 913–921.
  • Arafa, A. and Alber, N. (2020). The impact of coronavirus pandemic on stock market return: The case of the MENA Region, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 12(12), 100-106.
  • Ashraf, B. N. (2020). Stock Markets’ Reaction to COVID-19: Cases or Fatalities?, Research in International Business and Finance, 54, 1-7.
  • Ashraf, B. N. (2021). Stock Markets’ Reaction to Covid-19: Moderating Role of National Culture, Finance Research Letters, 41, 1-9.
  • Aslam, F. and Kang H. G. (2015). How Different Terrorist Attacks Affect Stock Markets, Defence and Peace Economics, 26(6), 634-648.
  • Baltagi, B. H. (2013). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, 5th Edition, John Wiley & Sons Ltd., Chichester.
  • Bash, A. (2020). International Evidence of COVID-19 and Stock Market Returns: An Event Study Analysis, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 10(4), 34-38.
  • Ben-Ahmed, K., Ayadi, I. and Hamad, S. B. (2022). COVID-19 Impact on Digital Companies’ Stock Return: A Dynamic Data Analysis, Finance Research Letters, 46(Part A).
  • Bourdeau-Brien, M. and Kryzanowski, L. (2017). The Impact of Natural Disasters on the Stock Returns and Volatilities of Local Firms, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 63, 259-270.
  • Brounen, D. and Derwall, J. (2010). The Impact of Terrorist Attacks on International Stock Markets, European Financial Management, 16(4), 585-598.
  • Chen, M. H., Jang, S. C. and Kim, W. G. (2007). The Impact of the SARS Outbreak on Taiwanese Hotel Stock Performance: An Event-study Approach, International Journal of Hospitality Management, 26(1), 200-212.
  • Guo, M., Kuai, Y. and Liu, X. (2020). Stock Market Response to Environmental Policies: Evidence from Heavily Polluting Firms in China, Economic Modelling, 86, 306-316.
  • He, Q., Liu, J., Wang, S. and Yu, J. (2020). The Impact of COVID-19 on Stock Markets, Economic and Political Studies, 8(3), 275-288.
  • Herwany, I., Febrian, E., Anwar, M. and Gunardi, A. (2021). The Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Stock Market Returns in Indonesia Stock Exchange, Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8(3), 39-47.
  • Ichev, R. and Marinc, M. (2018). Stock Prices and Geographic Proximity of Information: Evidence from the Ebola Outbreak, International Review of Financial Analysis, 56, 153-166.
  • Kapadia, N., and Pu, X. (2021). Limited Arbitrage between Equity and Credit Markets, Journal of Financial Economics, 105, 542-564.
  • Karim, R. and Saba, S, A. (2021). COVID-19 and Stock Return: Empirical Evidence from Developing Economy, International Journal of Management, Accounting and Economics, 8(6), 368-399.
  • Kowalewski, O. and Śpiewanowski, P. (2020). Stock Market Response to Potash Mine Disasters, Journal of Commodity Markets, 20.
  • Lee, C. C., Lee, C. C. and Wu, V. Y. (2021). The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Hospitality Stock Returns in China. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 1-14.
  • Malik, S., Hussain, S. and Ahmed, S. (2009). Impact of Political Event on Trading volume and Stock Returns: The Case of KSE, International Review of Business Research Papers, 5(4), 354-364.
  • Ngoc, H. D., Thuy, V. V. T. and Van C. L. (2021). Covid-19 Pandemic and Abnormal Stock Returns of Listed Companies in Vietnam, Cogent Business and Management, 8(1), 1941587.
  • Nippani, S. and Washer, K. M. (2004). SARS: A Non-event for Affected Countries’ Stock Markets?, Applied Financial Economics, 14(15), 1105-1110.
  • Obradović, S. and Tomić, N. (2017). The Effect of Presidential Election in the USA on Stock Return Flow-A Study of a Political Event, Economic Research, 30(1), 112-124.
  • Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations (Access Date: 10.11.2021)
  • Sarwar, G. (2021). Is VIX an investor fear gauge in BRIC equity markets?, Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 22(3), 55-65.
  • Singh, B., Dhall, R., Narang, S. and Rawat, S. (2020). The Outbreak of COVID-19 and Stock Market Responses: An Event Study and Panel Data Analysis for G-20 Countries, Global Business Review, 1-26.
  • Takyi, O. and Bentum-Ennin, I. (2021). The Impact of COVID-19 on Stock Market Performance in Africa: A Bayesian Structural Time Series Approach, Journal of Economics and Business, 115.
  • Tatoğlu, F. Y. (2020). Panel Veri Ekonometrisi Stata Uygulamalı, 5. Baskı, Beta Yayınları, İstanbul.
  • Trutwein, P., Ramchander, S., and Schiereck, D. (2011). Jumps in Credit Default Swap Spreads and Stock Returns, Journal of Fixed Income, 20, 56-70.
  • Waheed, R., Sarwar, S., Sarwar, S. and Khan, M. K. (2020). The impact of COVID-19 on Karachi Stock Exchange: Quantile-on-quantile Approach Using Secondary and Predicted Data, Journal of Public Affairs, 20(4), 1-6.
  • Whaley, R. E. (1993). Derivatives on Market Volatility: Hedging Tools Long Overdue, Journal of Derivatives, 1, 71-84.
  • Whaley, R.E., (2000). The Investor Fear Gauge, Journal of Portfolio Management, 26, 12–17.
  • Wooldridge, J. M. (2002). Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data, The MIT Press.
  • World Health Organization (WHO). (2020). Virtual Press Conference on COVID-19, 11 March 2020, 1-17.
  • World Health Organization (WHO). https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019, (Access Date: 10.11.2021).
  • Xu, L. (2021). Stock Return and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Canada and the US. Finance Research Letters, 38, 1-7.
  • Xu, X.D., Zeng, S.X. and Tam, C.M. (2021). Stock Market’s Reaction to Disclosure of Environmental Violations: Evidence from China, Journal of Business Ethics, 107, 227–237.
  • Yang, Y. J., and Samitas, A. (2020). Investor behavior, stock returns and CDS spreads: evidence from foreign and domestic investors in Korea, International Journal of Managerial Finance, 17(4), 497-521.
  • Zoungrana, T. B., Toe, D, L. and Toe, M. (2021). Covid-19 Outbreak and Stocks Return on the West African Economic and Monetary Union's Stock Market: An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Through the Event Study Approach, International Journal of Finance and Economics, January, 1-19.
There are 39 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Business Administration
Journal Section MAIN SECTION
Authors

Mehtap Öner 0000-0001-7527-5875

Aslı Aybars 0000-0002-7899-2367

Publication Date June 30, 2022
Submission Date December 6, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2022

Cite

APA Öner, M., & Aybars, A. (2022). THE NEXUS BETWEEN COVID-19 AND STOCK RETURNS: EVIDENCE FROM SELECTED MENA COUNTRIES. Muhasebe Bilim Dünyası Dergisi, 24(COVID-19 Özel Sayısı), 113-127. https://doi.org/10.31460/mbdd.1033349