The frequency of the financial crises experienced, made it necessary to predict them beforehand.This research aims to estimate the crisis in MIST Countries, by analyzing the crises which took place in the past. In this research financial crisis has been defined by Financial Pressure Index (FPI) and the crisis is attempted to be predicted by analyzing the past values of this index.Future values ofFPI estimated using its past values, the probability of the occurrence of a crisis has been predicted with the application of Box Jenkins and ANN models. The data used in the analyses is comprised of the monthly values and in the prediction with the past FPI results obtained from Box Jenkins and ANN models, future index values have been found much lower than the threshold values for MIST Countries. This result has been shown that, the occurrence of crisis between December 2014-March 2015 is quite low.
Finansal krizlerin önceden tahmin edilmesi gereksinimi ile ortaya çıkan bu çalışmada MIST ülkelerinde yaşanmış olan krizler ışığında, bir sonraki dönem kriz olup olmama durumunu test etmek amaçlanmıştır. Çalışmada finansal kriz, finansal baskı endeksi (FBE) ile tanımlanmış ve endeksin alacağı değer tahmin edilerek bu değerin belirli bir eşik değeri aşıp aşmaması durumuna göre de krizin varlığı değerlendirilmiştir. Analizlerde aylık veriler kullanılmış olup endeks tahmininde Box-Jenkins ve Yapay Sinir Ağları (YSA) modellerinden yararlanılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlarda, dört ülke için de gelecek dönem endeks değerleri eşik değerlerden çok daha düşük tespit edilmiştir ve bu ülkelerde Aralık 2014-Mart 2015 dönemlerinde kriz çıkma durumunun oldukça düşük olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.
Primary Language | Turkish |
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Subjects | Business Administration |
Journal Section | MAIN SECTION |
Authors | |
Publication Date | June 30, 2015 |
Submission Date | March 27, 2015 |
Published in Issue | Year 2015 Volume: 17 Issue: 2 |
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