Forecasting COVID-19 cases based on mobility

Mehmet Şahin

doi:10.51354/mjen.769763

EN

Forecasting COVID-19 cases based on mobility

Abstract

Countries struggling to overcome the profound and devastating effects of COVID-19 have started taking steps to return to "new normal." Any accurate forecasting can help countries and decision-makers to make plans and decisions in the process of returning normal life. In this regard, it is needless to mention the criticality and importance of accurate forecasting. In this study, daily cases of COVID-19 are estimated based on mobility data, considering the proven human-to-human transmission factor. The data of seven countries, namely Brazil, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States of America (USA) are used to train and test the models. These countries represent around 57% of the total cases in the whole world. In this context, various machine learning algorithms are implemented to obtain accurate predictions. Unlike most studies, the predicted case numbers are evaluated against the actual values to reveal the real performance of the methods and determine the most effective methods. The results indicated that it is unlikely to propose the same algorithm for forecasting COVID-19 cases for all countries. Also, mobility data can be enough the predict the COVID-19 cases in the USA.

Keywords

COVID-19, Forecasting, Mobility, Human-to-human transmission, Coronavirus

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Engineering

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Mehmet Şahin ^*
0000-0001-7078-7396
Türkiye

Publication Date

December 21, 2020

Submission Date

July 15, 2020

Acceptance Date

November 28, 2020

Published in Issue

Year 2020 Volume: 8 Number: 2

DOI

https://doi.org/10.51354/mjen.769763

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA82PA24YX

APA

Şahin, M. (2020). Forecasting COVID-19 cases based on mobility. MANAS Journal of Engineering, 8(2), 144-150. https://doi.org/10.51354/mjen.769763

AMA

1.Şahin M. Forecasting COVID-19 cases based on mobility. MJEN. 2020;8(2):144-150. doi:10.51354/mjen.769763

Chicago

Şahin, Mehmet. 2020. “Forecasting COVID-19 Cases Based on Mobility”. MANAS Journal of Engineering 8 (2): 144-50. https://doi.org/10.51354/mjen.769763.

EndNote

Şahin M (December 1, 2020) Forecasting COVID-19 cases based on mobility. MANAS Journal of Engineering 8 2 144–150.

IEEE

[1]M. Şahin, “Forecasting COVID-19 cases based on mobility”, MJEN, vol. 8, no. 2, pp. 144–150, Dec. 2020, doi: 10.51354/mjen.769763.

ISNAD

Şahin, Mehmet. “Forecasting COVID-19 Cases Based on Mobility”. MANAS Journal of Engineering 8/2 (December 1, 2020): 144-150. https://doi.org/10.51354/mjen.769763.

JAMA

1.Şahin M. Forecasting COVID-19 cases based on mobility. MJEN. 2020;8:144–150.

MLA

Şahin, Mehmet. “Forecasting COVID-19 Cases Based on Mobility”. MANAS Journal of Engineering, vol. 8, no. 2, Dec. 2020, pp. 144-50, doi:10.51354/mjen.769763.

Vancouver

1.Mehmet Şahin. Forecasting COVID-19 cases based on mobility. MJEN. 2020 Dec. 1;8(2):144-50. doi:10.51354/mjen.769763

Manas Journal of Engineering

16155

Forecasting COVID-19 cases based on mobility

Abstract

Forecasting COVID-19 cases based on mobility

Abstract

Keywords

References

Details

Primary Language

Subjects

Journal Section

Authors

Publication Date

Submission Date

Acceptance Date

Published in Issue

DOI

IZ

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