Year 2020, Volume 8 , Issue 2, Pages 144 - 150 2020-12-21

Forecasting COVID-19 cases based on mobility

Mehmet ŞAHİN [1]

Countries struggling to overcome the profound and devastating effects of COVID-19 have started taking steps to return to "new normal." Any accurate forecasting can help countries and decision-makers to make plans and decisions in the process of returning normal life. In this regard, it is needless to mention the criticality and importance of accurate forecasting. In this study, daily cases of COVID-19 are estimated based on mobility data, considering the proven human-to-human transmission factor. The data of seven countries, namely Brazil, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States of America (USA) are used to train and test the models. These countries represent around 57% of the total cases in the whole world. In this context, various machine learning algorithms are implemented to obtain accurate predictions. Unlike most studies, the predicted case numbers are evaluated against the actual values to reveal the real performance of the methods and determine the most effective methods. The results indicated that it is unlikely to propose the same algorithm for forecasting COVID-19 cases for all countries. Also, mobility data can be enough the predict the COVID-19 cases in the USA.
COVID-19, Forecasting, Mobility, Human-to-human transmission, Coronavirus
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Primary Language en
Subjects Engineering
Journal Section Research Article

Orcid: 0000-0001-7078-7396
Author: Mehmet ŞAHİN (Primary Author)
Country: Turkey


Publication Date : December 21, 2020

Bibtex @research article { mjen769763, journal = {MANAS Journal of Engineering}, issn = {1694-7398}, eissn = {1694-7398}, address = {}, publisher = {Kyrgyz-Turkish Manas University}, year = {2020}, volume = {8}, pages = {144 - 150}, doi = {10.51354/mjen.769763}, title = {Forecasting COVID-19 cases based on mobility}, key = {cite}, author = {Şahi̇n, Mehmet} }
APA Şahi̇n, M . (2020). Forecasting COVID-19 cases based on mobility . MANAS Journal of Engineering , 8 (2) , 144-150 . DOI: 10.51354/mjen.769763
MLA Şahi̇n, M . "Forecasting COVID-19 cases based on mobility" . MANAS Journal of Engineering 8 (2020 ): 144-150 <>
Chicago Şahi̇n, M . "Forecasting COVID-19 cases based on mobility". MANAS Journal of Engineering 8 (2020 ): 144-150
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Forecasting COVID-19 cases based on mobility AU - Mehmet Şahi̇n Y1 - 2020 PY - 2020 N1 - doi: 10.51354/mjen.769763 DO - 10.51354/mjen.769763 T2 - MANAS Journal of Engineering JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 144 EP - 150 VL - 8 IS - 2 SN - 1694-7398-1694-7398 M3 - doi: 10.51354/mjen.769763 UR - Y2 - 2020 ER -
EndNote %0 MANAS Journal of Engineering Forecasting COVID-19 cases based on mobility %A Mehmet Şahi̇n %T Forecasting COVID-19 cases based on mobility %D 2020 %J MANAS Journal of Engineering %P 1694-7398-1694-7398 %V 8 %N 2 %R doi: 10.51354/mjen.769763 %U 10.51354/mjen.769763
ISNAD Şahi̇n, Mehmet . "Forecasting COVID-19 cases based on mobility". MANAS Journal of Engineering 8 / 2 (December 2020): 144-150 .
AMA Şahi̇n M . Forecasting COVID-19 cases based on mobility. MJEN. 2020; 8(2): 144-150.
Vancouver Şahi̇n M . Forecasting COVID-19 cases based on mobility. MANAS Journal of Engineering. 2020; 8(2): 144-150.
IEEE M. Şahi̇n , "Forecasting COVID-19 cases based on mobility", MANAS Journal of Engineering, vol. 8, no. 2, pp. 144-150, Dec. 2020, doi:10.51354/mjen.769763