KESİKLİ TALEPLERİN TAHMİNLENMESİNDE ATA METOT VE CROSTON TEMELLİ METOTLARIN KARŞILAŞTIRILMASI

Year 2019, , 49 - 55, 11.12.2019

Tugce Ekiz Yilmaz , Güçkan Yapar , İdil Yavuz

https://doi.org/10.22531/muglajsci.572444

Cited By: 2

Abstract

Kesikli talep tahmini, şirketler ve ticari
faaliyetler için çok önemlidir. Son zamanlarda, birçok araştırmacı kesikli
talep için tahmin yöntemlerine odaklandı ve çeşitli tahmin teknikleri
önerdiler. Bu önerilen teknikler arasında öne çıkan yöntemler, üssel
düzleştirmeye dayanan Croston yöntemi ve bu yöntemin iki türevi olan SBA
(Syntetos-Boylan Yaklaşımı) ve SBJ (Shale-Boylan-Johnston Yaklaşımı)
metotlarıdır.e Croston yöntemi, kesikli talep ve envanter (stok) kontrolünün
tahmininde yaygın olarak kullanılmaktadır. Bu talepler genellikle sıfır
değerini içerdiğinden, bu verilerde Croston tarafından geliştirilen öne çıkan
metodun kullanılması kaçınılmaz hale gelir. Bununla birlikte; bu yöntemin,
yanlı tahminler üretmek gibi bazı eksiklikleri vardır ve bu sebeple türevleri
önerilmiştir. ATA metot, üssel düzleştirmeye alternatif olarak yeni
geliştirilen bir tahmin metodudur. Bu çalışmada, kesikli talebin tahmin
edilmesi için bir ATA yönteminin bir modifikasyonunu öneriyoruz. Önerilen yaklaşımın
sonuçlarını, Croston ve kesikli talep tahmini için kullanılan diğer tahmin
yöntemleriyle karşılaştıracağız.

Keywords

Croston metot, Envanter Kontrolü, Kesikli Talep, Talep tahminlemesi, Üssel düzleştirme, Zaman serisi

COMPARISON OF ATA METHOD AND CROSTON BASED METHODS ON FORECASTING OF INTERMITTENT DEMAND

Abstract

Intermittent demand
forecasting is crucial for firms and commercial activities. Recently, many
researchers have focused on forecasting methods for intermittent demand and
proposed various forecasting techniques. The most prominent methods among these
proposed techniques are the Croston method, which is based on exponential
smoothing, and its two popular variations: SBA (Syntetos-Boylan Approximation),
SBJ (Shale-Boylan-Johnston Approximation). Croston method is widely used in
forecasting of intermittent demand and inventory (stock) control. Since these
demands usually include zero values, using the ground breaking method developed
by Croston in this data becomes inevitable. Nevertheless, there are some
shortcomings to this method such as producing biased forecasts and for this
reason its variations have been proposed. ATA method is a recently developed
forecasting method which is an alternative to exponential smoothing. In this
paper we propose a modification of ATA method that can be used for forecasting
of intermittent demand. We will compare the results of the proposed approach to
those of Croston and other forecasting methods used for intermittent demand
forecasting.

Keywords

Exponential smoothing, Demand forecasting, Time series, Croston method, Intermittent demand, Inventory control

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