MULTI-STEP FORECASTING OF COVID-19 CASES IN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES USING TEMPORAL CONVOLUTIONAL NETWORKS

Abstract

The novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) has significantly affected millions of people around the world since the first notification until nowadays. The rapid spread of the virus has dramatically increased the workload of healthcare systems in many countries. Therefore, the need for efficient use of the healthcare system leads researchers to forecast the trend of virus spread. For this purpose, Machine Learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) applications have intensively used to struggle against the coronavirus outbreak. In this study, Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) is applied for modeling the cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases and forecasting the spread of it in various European countries using time series data. It is also presented that numerical examples for comparing performances of TCN against Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Gates Recurrent Units(GRU) in terms of computation time, root-mean-square error (RMSE), normalized root-mean-square error (NRMSE), root mean squared log error (RMSLE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE). Simulation results indicate that the Temporal Convolutional Networks used in this manuscript performs better than other models for forecasting the cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• Modeling
• Forecasting
• Machine Learning
• Deep Learning
• GRU
• LSTM
• TCN

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