İHRACAT GELİŞMİŞLİĞİ VE BÜYÜMEYE ETKİSİ: MENA ÜLKELERİ ÜZERİNE BİR ÇALIŞMA

Abstract

Bu çalışma, öncelikle 2004-2016 dönemi için, OPEC üyesi olan ve olmayan ülkeler arasında bir karşılaştırma yapmak için Orta Doğu ve Kuzey Afrika (MENA) ülkelerinin ihracat gelişmişliğini hesaplamaktadır. İkinci olarak, ihracat karmaşıklığının kişi başı GSYİH’daki büyüme oranları üzerindeki etkisini incelemek için çok sayıda makroekonomik değişken kontrolü altında, kısa ve uzun vadeli ampirik analizler uygulanmaktadır. Son olarak, büyümede oranlarındaki varyansın ayrıştırılması için Panel VAR analizi yöntem olarak kullanılmaktadır. Ampirik bulgular, petrol fiyatları ve OPEC üyeliği gösteren değişkenlerin kontrolü altında, ihracat gelişmişliğinin büyüme oranları üzerindeki olumlu etkisini göstermektedir ve ihracat gelişmişliğinin çok sayıdaki aday değişken arasından büyüme oranlarını açıklamada anahtar değişken olduğu görülmektedir.

Keywords

• İhracat gelişmişliği
• Ekonomik büyüme
• MENA ülkeleri

EXPORT SOPHISTICATION AND ITS IMPACT ON GROWTH: CASE STUDY FOR MENA COUNTRIES

Abstract

This study initially calculates export sophistication of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries to make a comparison in the region and in between OPEC and non-OPEC countries for 2004-2016 period. Secondly, short and long run empirical analysis are applied to examine the effect of export sophistication on GDP per capita growth controlling for several macroeconomic variables. Lastly, panel VAR is utilized to decompose the variation in growth rate. Empirical findings suggest positive effect of sophistication on growth rate controlling for oil prices and OPEC membership and export sophistication is observed to be the key variable to explain the variation in growth rate out of several candidate variables.

Keywords

• Export sophistication
• Economic growth
• MENA countries

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