MURABAHA İLE MAKROEKONOMİK DİNAMİKLER ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ

Year 2022, , 119 - 136, 24.06.2022

Tolga Ergün

https://doi.org/10.14780/muiibd.1135535

Abstract

Murabaha kavramı maliyet artı kar payı satış olarak ifade edilmektedir. Katılım finans ürünü olarak
bilinen murabaha, faizsiz finans sistemi içinde önemli bir yere sahiptir. Bu bağlamda çalışmada, Türkiye
örneklemi üzerinde murabaha ile makroekonomik değişkenler arasındaki ilişkisinin ortaya koyulması
amaçlanmıştır. Araştırma modelinde murabaha bağımlı değişken olarak kullanılırken, makroekonomik
gösterge kapsamında Gayri Safi Yurt İçi Hasıla (GSYİH), istihdam oranı ve enflasyon oranı bağımsız
değişkenler olarak sınanmıştır. 2010-2019 yılları arasındaki toplam 40 çeyrek dönem veriler Johansen
eşbütünleşme, VECM Granger ve Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testinden faydalanılarak analiz edilmiştir.
Analizden elde edilen bulgulara göre murabaha ile makroekonomik değişkenler uzun dönemde istatistiksel
olarak eş bütünleşik olup birlikte aynı yönde hareket etmektedir. Toda-Yamamoto analizi sonuçlarına göre
murabaha ile GSYİH ve istihdam oranı arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik tespit edilirken murabaha ile
enflasyon oranı arasında tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi saptanmıştır. Sonuçlar, murabaha finansmanı ile
makroekonomik dinamikler arasında uzun dönem nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığına işaret etmektedir.

Keywords

Katılım Finans, Murabaha, Makroekonomik Dinamikler, Johansen Eşbütünleşme, Toda-Yamamoto Nedensellik Testi, Türkiye

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MURABAHA AND MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS

Abstract

The concept of murabaha is expressed as cost plus profit share sales. Murabaha, known as the participation
finance product, has an important place in the interest-free financial system. In this context, it is aimed
to reveal the relationship between murabaha and macroeconomic variables on the Turkish sample in this
study. In the research model, murabaha is used as a dependent variable, while Gross Domestic Product
(GDP), employment rate, and inflation rate have been tested as independent variables within the scope
of macroeconomic indicator. A total of 40 quarterly data between 2010-2019 have been analyzed using
the Johansen cointegration, VECM Granger and Toda-Yamamoto causality test. According to the findings
obtained from the analysis, murabaha and macroeconomic variables are statistically identical in the long
term and move in the same direction together. According to the findings obtained from the Toda-Yamamoto
analysis, a bidirectional causality has been found between murabaha and the GDP and employment rate,
which is used as a macroeconomic indicator, while a one-way causality relationship has been found between
murabaha and the inflation rate. The results indicate the existence of a long-run causality relationship
between murabaha financing and various macroeconomic dynamics.

Keywords

Participation Finance, Murabaha, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Johansen Co-Integration, Toda- Yamamoto Causality Test, Turkey

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