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Türkiye’deki Banka Krizlerine Yönelik Ekonometrik Bir Yaklaşım: Markov Rejim Değişim Modeli

Year 2017, , 47 - 64, 20.07.2017

Raif Cergibozan , Ali Arı

https://doi.org/10.14780/muiibd.329728
Cited By: 2

Abstract

Türkiye ekonomisi özellikle 1990 sonrası dönemde, aynı diğer gelişmekte olan ülkeler gibi,çok önemli

bankacılık krizleri yaşamıştır. Bu doğrultuda, 1990-2013 dönemini kapsayan bu çalışmaTürkiye’de yaşanan

bankacılık krizlerinin nedenlerini Markov Rejim Değişim Modeli ile ortaya koymayı hedeflemektedir.

Model sonuçlarına göre enflasyon ve faiz oranlarının artması, TL’nin değer kaybetmesi, kamu bütçe

dengesinin bozulması, banka kredilerinin artması, likidite problemi, banka rezervlerinin azalması ve

banka açık pozisyonunun artması Türkiye’de bankacılık krizlerinin temel nedenleri arasındadır.

Keywords

Bankacılık Krizi Markov Modeli Türkiye Ekonomisi

References

  • ABIAD, A. “Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises: A Markov-Switching Approach with Application to South-East Asia.” Ph. D. Dissertation in Economics, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, 1999.
  • ALVAREZ-PLATA, P. ve SCHROOTEN, M., “The Argentinean Currency Crisis: A Markov Switching Model Estimation”, The Developing Economies, XLIV(1), 2006, 79-91.
  • ARI, A., “Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises: The Turkish Case”, Economic Systems, 36(3), 2012, 391-410.
  • ARI, A., ve CERGİBOZAN, R., “The Twin Crises: Determinants of Banking and Currency Crises in the Turkish Economy”, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 52(1), 2016, 123-135.
  • ARI, A., ve ÖZKESKİN, N., “Türkiye’deki Bankacılık Krizlerinin Nedenleri: Ekonometrik Bir Yaklaşım”, Finans, Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 622, 2016, 45-60.
  • BABECKY, J., HAVRANEK, T., MATEJU, J., RUSNAK, M., SMIDKOVA, K., ve VASICEK, B., “Banking, Debt, and Currency Crises in Developed Countries: Stylized Facts and Early Warning Indicators”, Journal of Financial Stability, 15(C), 2014, 1-17.
  • BARRELL, R., DAVIS, E. P., KARIM, D., ve LIADZE, I., “Bank Regulation, Property Prices and Early Warning Systems for Banking Crises in OECD Countries”, Journal of Banking & Finance, 34(9), 2010, 2255-2264.
  • BECK, T., DEMİRGÜÇ-KUNT, A., ve LEVINE, R., “Bank Concentration and Fragility. Impact andMechanics”. The Risks of Financial Institutions içinde M. Carey ve R. M. Stulz (Ed.). University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 2007, ss 193-231.
  • BELL, J. ve PAIN, D., “Leading Indicator Models of Banking Crises – A Critical Review”, Financial StabilityReview, 9, 2000, 113-129.
  • BORIO, C. ve LOWE, P., “Assessing the Risk of Banking Crises”, BIS Quarterly Review, December, 2002,43-54.
  • BORIO, C. ve DREHMANN, M., “Assessing the Risk of Banking Crises – Revisited”, BIS Quarterly Review, March, 2009, 29-46.
  • BOUKHATEM, J., “Marchés Obligataires et Crises Bancaires dans les Pays Emergents: Le Rôle des Institutions”, Panoeconomicus, 5, 2012, 625-646.
  • BOYD, J. H., DE NICOLO, G., ve Loukoianova, E., “Banking Crises and Crisis Dating: Theory and Evidence”, IMF Working Paper, 2009, 09/141.
  • CAPRIO, G. ve KLINGIEBEL, D., “Bank Insolvencies Cross-Country Experience”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper,1996, 1620.
  • CAPRIO, G. ve KLINGIEBEL, D., “Episodes of Systemic and Borderline Financial Crises”, Mimeo,2003,World Bank. http://go.worldbank.org/5DYGICS7B0.
  • CAPRIO, G. and MARTINEZ-PERIA, M.S., “Avoiding disaster: policies to reduce the risk of banking crises”, Discussion Paper, Egyptian Center for Economic Studies, Cairo, Egypt, 2000.
  • CHANG, R., ve VELASCO, A., “Banks, Debt Maturity and Financial Crises”, Journal of Financial Economics, 51(1), 2000, 169-194.
  • CHANG, R., ve VELASCO, A., “A Model of Financial Crises in Emerging Markets”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(2), 2001, 489-517.
  • DAVIS, E. P. ve KARİM, D., “Comparing Early Warning Systems for Banking Crises”, Journal of Financial Stability, 4(2), 2008, 89-120.
  • DEMİRGÜÇ-KUNT, A. ve DETRAGIACHE, E., “The Determinants of Banking Crises: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries”, IMF Staff Papers, 45(1), 1998, 81-109.
  • DEMİRGÜÇ-KUNT, A. ve DETRAGIACHE, E., “Financial Liberalization and Financial Fragility”. Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics 1998 içinde B. Pleskovic ve J. Stiglitz (Ed.).The World Bank, Washington, DC, 1999, ss 303-331.
  • DEMİRGÜÇ-KUNT, A. ve DETRAGIACHE, E., “Does Deposit Insurance Increase Banking System Stability? An Empirical Investigation”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 49(7), 2002, 1373-1406.
  • DIAMOND, D. ve DYBVIG, P., “Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance and Liquidity”, Journal of Political Economy, 93(3), 1983, 401-419.
  • EICHENGREEN, B. ve ARTETA, C., “Banking Crises in Emerging Markets: Presumptions and Evidence”, University of California at Berkeley CIDER Working Papers, 2000, C00-115.
  • EICHENGREEN, B. ve ROSE, A. K., “Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging Market Banking Crises”, NBER Working Paper, 1998, 6370.
  • DUTTAGUPTA, R. ve CASHIN, P., “The Anatomy of Banking Crises in Developing and Emerging Market Countries”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 30(2), 2011, 354-376.
  • FENDEL, R. ve STREMMEL, H., “Characteristics of Banking Crises: A Comparative Study with Regional Contagion”, Paper presented at the 13th Infiniti Conference on International Finance, Ljubljana, 2015, 8-9 Haziran.
  • FLOOD, R. P. ve GARBER, P. M., “A Systematic Banking Collopse in a Perfect Foresight World”, NBER Working Paper, 1981, 691.
  • FRATZSCHER, M., “On Currency Crises and Contagion”, European Central Bank Working Paper, 2002, 139.
  • GOLDSTEIN, M. ve TURNER, P., “Banking Crises in Emerging Economies: Origins and Policy Options”, BIS Economic Papers, 1996, 46.
  • GLICK, R. ve HUTCHISON, M., “Banking and Currency Crises: How Common Are Twins?”, Pacific Basin Working Paper Series, 1999, PB99-07.
  • HAMILTON, James D. A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1989, 357-384.
  • HAMILTON, J. D., Time Series Analysis. Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J., 1994.
  • HARDY, D. C. ve PAZARBAŞIOĞLU, C., “Leading Indicators of Banking Crises: Was Asia Different?”, IMF Working Paper, 1998, 98/91.
  • HARDY, D. C. ve PAZARBAŞIOĞLU, C., “Determinants and Leading Indicators of Banking Crises: Further Evidence”, IMF Staff Papers, 46(3), 1999, 247-258.
  • HONOHAN, P., “Banking System Failures in Developing and Transition Countries: Diagnosis and Prediction”, BIS Working Papers, 1997, 39.
  • HUTCHISON, M. ve MCDILL, K., “Are All Banking Crises Alike? The Japanese Experience in International Comparison”, NBER Working Paper, 1999, 7253.
  • KAMINSKY, G. ve REINHART, C., “The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance of Payment Problems”, American Economic Review, 89(3), 1999, 473-500.
  • KİBRİTÇİOĞLU, A., “Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility”, The Arab Bank Review, 5(2), 2003, 51-66.
  • KURTARAN ÇELİK, M., “Bankaların Finansal Başarısızlıklarının Geleneksel ve Yeni Yöntemlerle Öngörüsü”, Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 17(2), 2010, 129-143.
  • LAEVEN, L. ve VALENCIA, F., “Resolution of Banking Crises: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly”, IMF Working Paper, 2010, 10/146.
  • LAEVEN, L. ve VALENCIA, F., “Systemic Banking Crises Database”, IMF Economic Review, 61(2), 2013, 225-270.
  • LAMBREGTS, E ve OTTENS, D., “The Roots of Banking Crises in Emerging Market Economies: A Panel Data Approach”, Netherlands Central Bank DN B Working Paper, 2006, 84.
  • LINDGREN, C. J., GARCIA, G., ve SAAL, M., Bank Soundness and Macroeconomic Policy. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC, 1996.
  • LOPES, J. M. veNUNES, L. C. “A Markov Regime Switching Model of Crises and Contagion: The Case of the Iberian Countries in the EMS”,Journal of Macroeconomics, 34(4), 2012, 1141-1153.
  • MCKINNON, R. I. ve PILL, H., “Exchange-Rate Regimes for Emerging Markets: Moral Hazard and International Overborrowing”, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 15(3), 1999, 19-38.
  • MEHREZ, G. and KAUFMANN, D. (1999), ‘Transparency, liberalization, and financial crises’, World Bank. REINHART, C. ve ROGOFF, K., “Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace”, Journal of Banking & Finance, 37(11), 2013, 4557-4573.
  • SANTOR, E., “Banking Crises and Contagion: Empirical Evidence”, Bank of Canada Working Paper, 2003, 2003/1.
  • SHEHZAD, C. T. ve DE HAAN, J., “Financial Reform and Banking Crises”, CESifo Working Paper, 2009, 2870.
  • TUNAY, K. B., “Bankacılık Krizleri ve Erken Uyarı Sistemleri: Türk Bankacılık Sektörü için Bir Model Önerisi”, BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar Dergisi, 4(1), 2010, 9-46.
  • VON HAGEN, J. ve HO, T. K., “Money Market Pressure and the Determinants of Banking Crises”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 39(5), 2007, 1037-1066.

Year 2017, , 47 - 64, 20.07.2017

Raif Cergibozan , Ali Arı

https://doi.org/10.14780/muiibd.329728
Cited By: 2

Abstract

References

  • ABIAD, A. “Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises: A Markov-Switching Approach with Application to South-East Asia.” Ph. D. Dissertation in Economics, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, 1999.
  • ALVAREZ-PLATA, P. ve SCHROOTEN, M., “The Argentinean Currency Crisis: A Markov Switching Model Estimation”, The Developing Economies, XLIV(1), 2006, 79-91.
  • ARI, A., “Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises: The Turkish Case”, Economic Systems, 36(3), 2012, 391-410.
  • ARI, A., ve CERGİBOZAN, R., “The Twin Crises: Determinants of Banking and Currency Crises in the Turkish Economy”, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 52(1), 2016, 123-135.
  • ARI, A., ve ÖZKESKİN, N., “Türkiye’deki Bankacılık Krizlerinin Nedenleri: Ekonometrik Bir Yaklaşım”, Finans, Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 622, 2016, 45-60.
  • BABECKY, J., HAVRANEK, T., MATEJU, J., RUSNAK, M., SMIDKOVA, K., ve VASICEK, B., “Banking, Debt, and Currency Crises in Developed Countries: Stylized Facts and Early Warning Indicators”, Journal of Financial Stability, 15(C), 2014, 1-17.
  • BARRELL, R., DAVIS, E. P., KARIM, D., ve LIADZE, I., “Bank Regulation, Property Prices and Early Warning Systems for Banking Crises in OECD Countries”, Journal of Banking & Finance, 34(9), 2010, 2255-2264.
  • BECK, T., DEMİRGÜÇ-KUNT, A., ve LEVINE, R., “Bank Concentration and Fragility. Impact andMechanics”. The Risks of Financial Institutions içinde M. Carey ve R. M. Stulz (Ed.). University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 2007, ss 193-231.
  • BELL, J. ve PAIN, D., “Leading Indicator Models of Banking Crises – A Critical Review”, Financial StabilityReview, 9, 2000, 113-129.
  • BORIO, C. ve LOWE, P., “Assessing the Risk of Banking Crises”, BIS Quarterly Review, December, 2002,43-54.
  • BORIO, C. ve DREHMANN, M., “Assessing the Risk of Banking Crises – Revisited”, BIS Quarterly Review, March, 2009, 29-46.
  • BOUKHATEM, J., “Marchés Obligataires et Crises Bancaires dans les Pays Emergents: Le Rôle des Institutions”, Panoeconomicus, 5, 2012, 625-646.
  • BOYD, J. H., DE NICOLO, G., ve Loukoianova, E., “Banking Crises and Crisis Dating: Theory and Evidence”, IMF Working Paper, 2009, 09/141.
  • CAPRIO, G. ve KLINGIEBEL, D., “Bank Insolvencies Cross-Country Experience”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper,1996, 1620.
  • CAPRIO, G. ve KLINGIEBEL, D., “Episodes of Systemic and Borderline Financial Crises”, Mimeo,2003,World Bank. http://go.worldbank.org/5DYGICS7B0.
  • CAPRIO, G. and MARTINEZ-PERIA, M.S., “Avoiding disaster: policies to reduce the risk of banking crises”, Discussion Paper, Egyptian Center for Economic Studies, Cairo, Egypt, 2000.
  • CHANG, R., ve VELASCO, A., “Banks, Debt Maturity and Financial Crises”, Journal of Financial Economics, 51(1), 2000, 169-194.
  • CHANG, R., ve VELASCO, A., “A Model of Financial Crises in Emerging Markets”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(2), 2001, 489-517.
  • DAVIS, E. P. ve KARİM, D., “Comparing Early Warning Systems for Banking Crises”, Journal of Financial Stability, 4(2), 2008, 89-120.
  • DEMİRGÜÇ-KUNT, A. ve DETRAGIACHE, E., “The Determinants of Banking Crises: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries”, IMF Staff Papers, 45(1), 1998, 81-109.
  • DEMİRGÜÇ-KUNT, A. ve DETRAGIACHE, E., “Financial Liberalization and Financial Fragility”. Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics 1998 içinde B. Pleskovic ve J. Stiglitz (Ed.).The World Bank, Washington, DC, 1999, ss 303-331.
  • DEMİRGÜÇ-KUNT, A. ve DETRAGIACHE, E., “Does Deposit Insurance Increase Banking System Stability? An Empirical Investigation”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 49(7), 2002, 1373-1406.
  • DIAMOND, D. ve DYBVIG, P., “Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance and Liquidity”, Journal of Political Economy, 93(3), 1983, 401-419.
  • EICHENGREEN, B. ve ARTETA, C., “Banking Crises in Emerging Markets: Presumptions and Evidence”, University of California at Berkeley CIDER Working Papers, 2000, C00-115.
  • EICHENGREEN, B. ve ROSE, A. K., “Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging Market Banking Crises”, NBER Working Paper, 1998, 6370.
  • DUTTAGUPTA, R. ve CASHIN, P., “The Anatomy of Banking Crises in Developing and Emerging Market Countries”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 30(2), 2011, 354-376.
  • FENDEL, R. ve STREMMEL, H., “Characteristics of Banking Crises: A Comparative Study with Regional Contagion”, Paper presented at the 13th Infiniti Conference on International Finance, Ljubljana, 2015, 8-9 Haziran.
  • FLOOD, R. P. ve GARBER, P. M., “A Systematic Banking Collopse in a Perfect Foresight World”, NBER Working Paper, 1981, 691.
  • FRATZSCHER, M., “On Currency Crises and Contagion”, European Central Bank Working Paper, 2002, 139.
  • GOLDSTEIN, M. ve TURNER, P., “Banking Crises in Emerging Economies: Origins and Policy Options”, BIS Economic Papers, 1996, 46.
  • GLICK, R. ve HUTCHISON, M., “Banking and Currency Crises: How Common Are Twins?”, Pacific Basin Working Paper Series, 1999, PB99-07.
  • HAMILTON, James D. A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1989, 357-384.
  • HAMILTON, J. D., Time Series Analysis. Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J., 1994.
  • HARDY, D. C. ve PAZARBAŞIOĞLU, C., “Leading Indicators of Banking Crises: Was Asia Different?”, IMF Working Paper, 1998, 98/91.
  • HARDY, D. C. ve PAZARBAŞIOĞLU, C., “Determinants and Leading Indicators of Banking Crises: Further Evidence”, IMF Staff Papers, 46(3), 1999, 247-258.
  • HONOHAN, P., “Banking System Failures in Developing and Transition Countries: Diagnosis and Prediction”, BIS Working Papers, 1997, 39.
  • HUTCHISON, M. ve MCDILL, K., “Are All Banking Crises Alike? The Japanese Experience in International Comparison”, NBER Working Paper, 1999, 7253.
  • KAMINSKY, G. ve REINHART, C., “The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance of Payment Problems”, American Economic Review, 89(3), 1999, 473-500.
  • KİBRİTÇİOĞLU, A., “Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility”, The Arab Bank Review, 5(2), 2003, 51-66.
  • KURTARAN ÇELİK, M., “Bankaların Finansal Başarısızlıklarının Geleneksel ve Yeni Yöntemlerle Öngörüsü”, Yönetim ve Ekonomi, 17(2), 2010, 129-143.
  • LAEVEN, L. ve VALENCIA, F., “Resolution of Banking Crises: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly”, IMF Working Paper, 2010, 10/146.
  • LAEVEN, L. ve VALENCIA, F., “Systemic Banking Crises Database”, IMF Economic Review, 61(2), 2013, 225-270.
  • LAMBREGTS, E ve OTTENS, D., “The Roots of Banking Crises in Emerging Market Economies: A Panel Data Approach”, Netherlands Central Bank DN B Working Paper, 2006, 84.
  • LINDGREN, C. J., GARCIA, G., ve SAAL, M., Bank Soundness and Macroeconomic Policy. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC, 1996.
  • LOPES, J. M. veNUNES, L. C. “A Markov Regime Switching Model of Crises and Contagion: The Case of the Iberian Countries in the EMS”,Journal of Macroeconomics, 34(4), 2012, 1141-1153.
  • MCKINNON, R. I. ve PILL, H., “Exchange-Rate Regimes for Emerging Markets: Moral Hazard and International Overborrowing”, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 15(3), 1999, 19-38.
  • MEHREZ, G. and KAUFMANN, D. (1999), ‘Transparency, liberalization, and financial crises’, World Bank. REINHART, C. ve ROGOFF, K., “Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace”, Journal of Banking & Finance, 37(11), 2013, 4557-4573.
  • SANTOR, E., “Banking Crises and Contagion: Empirical Evidence”, Bank of Canada Working Paper, 2003, 2003/1.
  • SHEHZAD, C. T. ve DE HAAN, J., “Financial Reform and Banking Crises”, CESifo Working Paper, 2009, 2870.
  • TUNAY, K. B., “Bankacılık Krizleri ve Erken Uyarı Sistemleri: Türk Bankacılık Sektörü için Bir Model Önerisi”, BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar Dergisi, 4(1), 2010, 9-46.
  • VON HAGEN, J. ve HO, T. K., “Money Market Pressure and the Determinants of Banking Crises”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 39(5), 2007, 1037-1066.
There are 51 citations in total.

Details

Subjects Economics
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Raif Cergibozan

Ali Arı This is me

Publication Date July 20, 2017
Submission Date July 19, 2017
Published in Issue Year 2017

Cite

APA Cergibozan, R., & Arı, A. (2017). Türkiye’deki Banka Krizlerine Yönelik Ekonometrik Bir Yaklaşım: Markov Rejim Değişim Modeli. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 39(1), 47-64. https://doi.org/10.14780/muiibd.329728
AMA Cergibozan R, Arı A. Türkiye’deki Banka Krizlerine Yönelik Ekonometrik Bir Yaklaşım: Markov Rejim Değişim Modeli. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi. July 2017;39(1):47-64. doi:10.14780/muiibd.329728
Chicago Cergibozan, Raif, and Ali Arı. “Türkiye’deki Banka Krizlerine Yönelik Ekonometrik Bir Yaklaşım: Markov Rejim Değişim Modeli”. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi 39, no. 1 (July 2017): 47-64. https://doi.org/10.14780/muiibd.329728.
EndNote Cergibozan R, Arı A (July 1, 2017) Türkiye’deki Banka Krizlerine Yönelik Ekonometrik Bir Yaklaşım: Markov Rejim Değişim Modeli. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi 39 1 47–64.
IEEE R. Cergibozan and A. Arı, “Türkiye’deki Banka Krizlerine Yönelik Ekonometrik Bir Yaklaşım: Markov Rejim Değişim Modeli”, Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, vol. 39, no. 1, pp. 47–64, 2017, doi: 10.14780/muiibd.329728.
ISNAD Cergibozan, Raif - Arı, Ali. “Türkiye’deki Banka Krizlerine Yönelik Ekonometrik Bir Yaklaşım: Markov Rejim Değişim Modeli”. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi 39/1 (July 2017), 47-64. https://doi.org/10.14780/muiibd.329728.
JAMA Cergibozan R, Arı A. Türkiye’deki Banka Krizlerine Yönelik Ekonometrik Bir Yaklaşım: Markov Rejim Değişim Modeli. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi. 2017;39:47–64.
MLA Cergibozan, Raif and Ali Arı. “Türkiye’deki Banka Krizlerine Yönelik Ekonometrik Bir Yaklaşım: Markov Rejim Değişim Modeli”. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, vol. 39, no. 1, 2017, pp. 47-64, doi:10.14780/muiibd.329728.
Vancouver Cergibozan R, Arı A. Türkiye’deki Banka Krizlerine Yönelik Ekonometrik Bir Yaklaşım: Markov Rejim Değişim Modeli. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi. 2017;39(1):47-64.

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