UNEMPLOYMENT HYSTERESIS IN TURKEY AND APPLICATION OF STAR MODELS

Abstract

In this research, it's been studied whether economic shocks affect natural unemployment rate biases in Turkey by analyzing unemployment rates between the years of 1923–2010. Stationarity of series is tested by using Augmented DickeyFuller test developed by Dickey and Fuller (1981). It has been concluded that series are not stationary on level values.Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) models which is widely accepted for testing the presence of unemployment hysteria and nonlinear impulse-response function have been used for the detection of this effect.According to results of smooth transition autoregressive model, for Terasvirta (1994) process and Escribano-Jorda (1997) procedure, logistic smooth transition model (LSTAR) was chosen. After the application of this model, we investigated that domestic and international economic fluctuations cause change in the figure of natural unemployment rate.

Keywords

• Unemployment Hysteresis,STAR Models,Natural Unemployment Rate

TÜRKİYE’DE İŞSİZLİK HİSTERİSİ VE STAR MODELLERİ UYGULAMASI

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin 1923–2010 dönemine ait yıllık işsizlik oranı kullanılarak zamanla meydana gelen şokların Türkiye’deki işsizliğin doğal oranına etkisi olup olmadığı araştırılmıştır. Genişletilmiş Dickey-Fuller (1981) birim kök testi kullanılarak serinin düzey değerlerinde durağan olmadığı sonucuna varılmıştır. Literatürde işsizlik histerisinin varlığının sınanmasında geniş kullanım alanı olan yumuşak geçişli otoregresif modelleri (STAR) ve doğrusal olmayan etki-tepki fonksiyonları kullanılmıştır. Yumuşak geçişli otoregresif modeli uygulamasına göre Terasvirta (1994) süreci ve Escribano-Jorda (1997) prosedürü için lojistik yumuşak geçişli otoregresif modeli seçilmiştir. Model uygulamasının sonucunda, iç ve dış iktisadi dalgalanmaların işsizliğin doğal oranında değişmelere neden olduğu bulunmuştur

Keywords

• Ġşsizlik Histerisi,STAR Modeller,Doğal Ġşsizlik Oranı

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