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Year 2012, Volume: 32 Issue: 1, 19 - 42, 12.03.2015

Özhan Tuncay Recep Kök

Abstract

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Keywords

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References

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TÜRKİYE İÇİN OPTİMUM DÖVİZ KURU REJİMİNİN BELİRLENMESİNE YÖNELİK BİR UYGULAMA

Year 2012, Volume: 32 Issue: 1, 19 - 42, 12.03.2015

Özhan Tuncay Recep Kök

Abstract

Birinci Dünya Savaşı sonrasında Altın Standardı Sisteminin çöküşü, yoğun kambiyo kontrolleri ile farklı döviz kuru rejimlerinin uygulanmasını beraberinde getirmişti. İkinci Dünya Savaşı sonrasında yürürlüğe konulan Bretton Woods sistemi ise sabit, fakat ayarlanabilir bir kur sistemi oluşturmuştu. Ancak sistemin çöküşü ile birlikte sabit kur sistemi terk edilerek çok sayıda farklı kur rejimi uygulanmaya başlandı. Ancak sistemin çöküşü ile birlikte döviz kur rejiminin seçimini belirleyen unsurlar ile gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerin farklı yapısal özelliklerinin olası etkilerine ilişkin tartışmalar da artış gösterdi.Sermaye hareketlerinin bütün dünyada gittikçe serbestleştirilmesi, özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerde optimum döviz kuru rejiminin seçimini konuya ilişkin tartışmaların merkezine oturtmuş; sermaye hareketlerindeki sürekli artışlar, döviz kurlarının oluşumuna ilişkin yeni modellerin ve optimum para alanları teorisi ile ortaya konulmuş yaklaşımların yanı sıra “İki Kutup Hipotezi” ya da “Dalgalanma Korkusu Fenomeni” gibi yeni bazı yaklaşımların önünü açmıştır. Ancak ülkelerin ekonomik yapılarının farklılığının da etkisiyle döviz kuru sistemi tercihi konusunda bir görüş birliği oluşamamıştır. Temel olarak döviz kuru sistemleri sabit, esnek kur sistemleri ve karma kur sistemleri olarak sınıflandırılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada Optimum Para Alanı değişkenleri ile yeni bazı finansal değişkenlerden yararlanılarak Poirson (2001) tarafından geliştirilen bir döviz kuru esneklik indeksi kullanılmış ve Türkiye içi en ideal döviz kuru sisteminin hangisi olacağını belirlemek amacıyla Panel veri analizi ve simülasyon yöntemlerine başvurulmuştur.

Keywords

Döviz Kuru Döviz Kuru Rejimi Tercihi Türkiye

References

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  • DORNBUSCH Rudiger and Stanley Fischer, “Exchange Rates and the Current Account”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 70, No.5, 1980, ss. 960- 971.
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  • DORNBUSCH Rudiger, “Flexible Exchange Rates and Excess Capital Mobility”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1986, No. 1, 1986, ss. 209- 226.
  • DREYER J. S., “Determinants of Exchange- Rate Regimes For Currencies of Developing Countries: Some Preliminary Results”, World Development, Vol. 6, No. 4, 1978, ss. 437- 445.
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  • EDWARDS Sebastian, The Determinants of the Choice Between Fixed and Flexible Exchange-Rate Regimes, NBER Working Papers, No. 5756, 1996.
  • EICHENGREEN Barry, “Global Imbalances and The Lessons of Bretton Woods”, NBER Working Papers, No. 10497, May, 2004.
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  • FIELDING David, Paul Mizen, “Investment, Output and Interest Rate Policy When Capital is Mobile”, The Economic Journal, Vol. 107, No. 441, 1997, ss. 431- 440.
  • FISCHER Stanley, “Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government: Exchange Rate Regimes: Is The Bipolar View Correct?”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 15, No. 2, 2001, ss. 3- 24.
  • FRANKEL Jeffrey A., “Experience of and Lessons from Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Economies”, NBER Working Papers, No. 10032, 2003.
  • FRANKEL Jeffrey A., On the Mark: “A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 69, No.4, 1979, ss. 610- 622.
  • FRANKEL Jeffrey A., “No Single Currency Regime is Right For All Countries Or At All Times”, NBER Working Papers No. 7338.
  • FRENKEL Jacob A., “A Monetary Approach To The Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence”, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 78, No. 2,1976, ss. 200- 224.
  • FRENKEL Jacob A., “Elasticities and The Interest Parity Theory”, The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 81, No. 3, 1973, ss. 741- 747.
  • FRENKEL Jacob A., “Flexible Exchange Rates, Prices and The Role of “News”: Lessons From The 1970s”, The Journal of Political Economy, Vol.89, No.4, 1981, ss. 665- 705.
  • FRENKEL Jacob A., Michael Mussa, “Monetary and Fiscal Policies in an Open Economy”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 71, No.2, (May 1981), ss. 253- 258.
  • FRENKEL Jacob A:, Thorvaldur Gylfason, John F. Helliwell, “A Synthesis of Monetary and Keynesian Approaches to Short-run Balance- of- Payments Theory”, The Economic Journal, Vol.90, No.359, 1980, ss. 582- 592.
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There are 113 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Özhan Tuncay This is me

Recep Kök

Publication Date March 12, 2015
Submission Date March 12, 2015
Published in Issue Year 2012 Volume: 32 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Tuncay, Ö., & Kök, R. (2015). TÜRKİYE İÇİN OPTİMUM DÖVİZ KURU REJİMİNİN BELİRLENMESİNE YÖNELİK BİR UYGULAMA. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 32(1), 19-42.
AMA Tuncay Ö, Kök R. TÜRKİYE İÇİN OPTİMUM DÖVİZ KURU REJİMİNİN BELİRLENMESİNE YÖNELİK BİR UYGULAMA. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi. March 2015;32(1):19-42.
Chicago Tuncay, Özhan, and Recep Kök. “TÜRKİYE İÇİN OPTİMUM DÖVİZ KURU REJİMİNİN BELİRLENMESİNE YÖNELİK BİR UYGULAMA”. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi 32, no. 1 (March 2015): 19-42.
EndNote Tuncay Ö, Kök R (March 1, 2015) TÜRKİYE İÇİN OPTİMUM DÖVİZ KURU REJİMİNİN BELİRLENMESİNE YÖNELİK BİR UYGULAMA. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi 32 1 19–42.
IEEE Ö. Tuncay and R. Kök, “TÜRKİYE İÇİN OPTİMUM DÖVİZ KURU REJİMİNİN BELİRLENMESİNE YÖNELİK BİR UYGULAMA”, Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, vol. 32, no. 1, pp. 19–42, 2015.
ISNAD Tuncay, Özhan - Kök, Recep. “TÜRKİYE İÇİN OPTİMUM DÖVİZ KURU REJİMİNİN BELİRLENMESİNE YÖNELİK BİR UYGULAMA”. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi 32/1 (March 2015), 19-42.
JAMA Tuncay Ö, Kök R. TÜRKİYE İÇİN OPTİMUM DÖVİZ KURU REJİMİNİN BELİRLENMESİNE YÖNELİK BİR UYGULAMA. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi. 2015;32:19–42.
MLA Tuncay, Özhan and Recep Kök. “TÜRKİYE İÇİN OPTİMUM DÖVİZ KURU REJİMİNİN BELİRLENMESİNE YÖNELİK BİR UYGULAMA”. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, vol. 32, no. 1, 2015, pp. 19-42.
Vancouver Tuncay Ö, Kök R. TÜRKİYE İÇİN OPTİMUM DÖVİZ KURU REJİMİNİN BELİRLENMESİNE YÖNELİK BİR UYGULAMA. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi. 2015;32(1):19-42.

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