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POLİTİK İSTİKRARSIZLIK, BELİRSİZLİK VE MAKROEKONOMİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ (1970-2006)

Year 2011, Volume: 31 Issue: 2, 123 - 144, 17.03.2015

Abstract

Bu çalışma; GARCH ve EGARCH modellerini kullanarak 1970-2006 yılları
arasında Türkiye’de politik istikrarsızlık, belirsizlik ve makroekonomik göstergelerin
(ekonomik büyüme, enflasyon, döviz kuru) oynaklığı arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektir.
Politik istikrarsızlık göstergeleri olarak altı farklı istikrarsızlık değişkenine (genel
seçimler, yerel seçimler, askeri darbe dönemleri, referandumlar, koalisyonlar, grev)
ait temel bileşenler kullanılmıştır. GARCH ve EGARCH modellerinden elde edilen
bulgulara göre, politik istikrarsızlığın ekonomik büyüme üzerinde negatif ve
enflasyon üzerinde pozitif etkisi olduğu, buna karşın döviz kurları üzerinde etkisinin
çok güçlü olmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. 

References

  • ABDIWELI, M.A., “Political Instability, Policy Uncertainty and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation”, Atlantic Economic Journal, Vol.29, 2001, s.87-106.
  • ALESINA, A.,R. PEROTTI, “Income Distribution, Political Instability and Investment”, NBER working Paper Series, No:4486, 1993, s.3.
  • ALESINA, A., COHEN, G.D., N. ROUBINI, “Macroeonomic Policy and Elections in OECD Democracies”, Economics and Politics, Vol.4, 1992, s.1-30.
  • ALESINA, A., J.SACHS, “Political Parties and the Business Cycles in the United States: 1948-1984”, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, Vol.20, 1988, s.63-82.
  • ALESINA, A., ġ.ÖZLER, N.ROUBINI ve P.SWAGEL, “Political Instability and Economic Growth”, Journal of Economic Growth, Vol:1, 1996, s.189-211.
  • ASTERIOU, D., S. PRICE, “Political Instability and Economic Growth: UK Time Series Evidence”, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Vol:48, No:4, 2001, 383-399.
  • BARRO, R.J., “Democracy and Growth”, Journal of Economic Growth, Vol:1, 1996, s.1-27.
  • BARRO, R.J., “Economic Growth in a Cross-section of Countries”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.5, 1991, s.407-443.
  • BARRO, R.J., Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study, Camridge, MIT Press, 1997.
  • BOLLERSLEV, T., “Generalized Autoregressive Heteroskedasticity”, Journal of Econometrics, Vol.31, 1986, s.307 327.
  • BRUNETTI, A., “Political Variables in Growth Regressions”, içinde (ed: S.Borner ve M.Paldam) “The Political Dimension of Economic Growth”, International Economic Associaton Series, Palgrave Macmillan, Hampshire Ġngiltere, 1998, s.117-135.
  • BUCHANAN, J.M., G.Tullock, The Calculus of Consent Logical Foundations of Constitutional Democracy, University of Michgan Press, Ann Arbor Paperbacks, 1965.
  • BUCHANAN, J.M., R.E. Wagner, “Democracy in Coalition”, Public Choice, Vol.26, 1979, s.29-49.
  • BUSSIERE, M., C. Mulder, “Political Instability and Economic Vulnerabilty”, IMF Working Paper, WP/99/46, 1991, s.17.
  • CAMPOS, N.F., J.B. NUGENT, “Who is Afraid of Political Instability?”, Journal of Development Economics, Vol.67, 2002, s.157-172.
  • DOĞAN, A., “Demokrasi ve Ekonomik GeliĢme”, Erciyes Üniversitesi ĠĠBF Dergisi, Sayı 25, 2005, s.1-19.
  • EDWARDS, S., G. TABELLINI, “Political Instability, Political Weakness and Inflation: An Empirical Analysis”, NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper No.3721, 1991, s.19.
  • ENGLE, R.F., “Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation”, Econometrica, Vol.50, 1982, s.987-1007.
  • FENG, Y., “Political Freedom, Political Instability and Political Uncertainty: A Study of Political Institutions and Private Investment in Developing Countries”, International Studies Quarterly, Vol.45, 2001, s.271-94.
  • FOSU, A.K., “Political Instability and Economic Growth: Evidence from SubSaharan Africa”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol. 40, No.4, 1992, s.829-841.
  • HECKELMAN, J., H. BERUMENT, “Political Business Cycles and Endogenous Elections”, Southern Economic Journal, Vol.19, 1998, s.651-68.
  • KLOMP, J., D.H. JAKOB, “Political Institutions and Economic Volatility”, European Journal of Political Economy, Vol.25, 2009, s.311-26.
  • LENSINK, R., N.HERMES, V.MURINDE, “Capital Flight and Political Risk”, Journal of Money and Finance, Vol.19, 2000, s.73-92.
  • MALLEY, J., A.PHILIPPOPOULOS, U.WOITEk, “Electoral Uncertainty, Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Fluctuations”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol.31, 2007, s.1051-80.
  • NELSON,D.B., “Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach”, Econometrica, Vol.59, 1991, s.347-70.
  • PALDAM, M., “Inflation and Political Instability in Eight Latin American Countries 1946-83”, Public Choice, 52, 1987, s.143-68.
  • PERRY, R.L., J.D. ROBERTSON, “Political Markets, Bond Markets and the Effect of Uncertainty: A Cross-National Analysis”, International Studies Quarterly, Vol.42, 1998, s.131-60.
  • ROBERTSON, J.D., “The Political Economy and the Durability of European Coalisition Cabinets: New Variations on a Game-Theoric Perspective”, Journal of Politics, Vol.45, 1983, s.932-57.
  • STROM, K., “Minority Government and Majority Rule, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1990.
  • TELATAR, F., “Türkiye’de Politika DeğiĢkenliği ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik ĠliĢkileri”, ĠĢletme ve Finans, 211, 2003, 71-91.

POLITICAL INSTABILITY, UNCERTAINTY AND MACROECONOMICS: THE CASE OF TURKEY (1970-2006)

Year 2011, Volume: 31 Issue: 2, 123 - 144, 17.03.2015

Abstract

This study investigates relationship between political instability,
uncertainty and volatility of macroeconomic outcomes in the context of economic
growth, inflation and exchange rates in Turkey for the period 1970 through 2006
using GARCH and EGARCH models. Political instability indicators has been
defined as principal compenents of six different instability variables (genereal
elections, local elections, coup d'états, referendums, coalition periods and number   strikes per year). According to results, estimated by GARCH and EGARCH
models, political instability have negative impacts on economic growth and positive
affect on ınflation rate, whereas it’s affect on exchange rates is not strong enough.

References

  • ABDIWELI, M.A., “Political Instability, Policy Uncertainty and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation”, Atlantic Economic Journal, Vol.29, 2001, s.87-106.
  • ALESINA, A.,R. PEROTTI, “Income Distribution, Political Instability and Investment”, NBER working Paper Series, No:4486, 1993, s.3.
  • ALESINA, A., COHEN, G.D., N. ROUBINI, “Macroeonomic Policy and Elections in OECD Democracies”, Economics and Politics, Vol.4, 1992, s.1-30.
  • ALESINA, A., J.SACHS, “Political Parties and the Business Cycles in the United States: 1948-1984”, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, Vol.20, 1988, s.63-82.
  • ALESINA, A., ġ.ÖZLER, N.ROUBINI ve P.SWAGEL, “Political Instability and Economic Growth”, Journal of Economic Growth, Vol:1, 1996, s.189-211.
  • ASTERIOU, D., S. PRICE, “Political Instability and Economic Growth: UK Time Series Evidence”, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Vol:48, No:4, 2001, 383-399.
  • BARRO, R.J., “Democracy and Growth”, Journal of Economic Growth, Vol:1, 1996, s.1-27.
  • BARRO, R.J., “Economic Growth in a Cross-section of Countries”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.5, 1991, s.407-443.
  • BARRO, R.J., Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study, Camridge, MIT Press, 1997.
  • BOLLERSLEV, T., “Generalized Autoregressive Heteroskedasticity”, Journal of Econometrics, Vol.31, 1986, s.307 327.
  • BRUNETTI, A., “Political Variables in Growth Regressions”, içinde (ed: S.Borner ve M.Paldam) “The Political Dimension of Economic Growth”, International Economic Associaton Series, Palgrave Macmillan, Hampshire Ġngiltere, 1998, s.117-135.
  • BUCHANAN, J.M., G.Tullock, The Calculus of Consent Logical Foundations of Constitutional Democracy, University of Michgan Press, Ann Arbor Paperbacks, 1965.
  • BUCHANAN, J.M., R.E. Wagner, “Democracy in Coalition”, Public Choice, Vol.26, 1979, s.29-49.
  • BUSSIERE, M., C. Mulder, “Political Instability and Economic Vulnerabilty”, IMF Working Paper, WP/99/46, 1991, s.17.
  • CAMPOS, N.F., J.B. NUGENT, “Who is Afraid of Political Instability?”, Journal of Development Economics, Vol.67, 2002, s.157-172.
  • DOĞAN, A., “Demokrasi ve Ekonomik GeliĢme”, Erciyes Üniversitesi ĠĠBF Dergisi, Sayı 25, 2005, s.1-19.
  • EDWARDS, S., G. TABELLINI, “Political Instability, Political Weakness and Inflation: An Empirical Analysis”, NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper No.3721, 1991, s.19.
  • ENGLE, R.F., “Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation”, Econometrica, Vol.50, 1982, s.987-1007.
  • FENG, Y., “Political Freedom, Political Instability and Political Uncertainty: A Study of Political Institutions and Private Investment in Developing Countries”, International Studies Quarterly, Vol.45, 2001, s.271-94.
  • FOSU, A.K., “Political Instability and Economic Growth: Evidence from SubSaharan Africa”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol. 40, No.4, 1992, s.829-841.
  • HECKELMAN, J., H. BERUMENT, “Political Business Cycles and Endogenous Elections”, Southern Economic Journal, Vol.19, 1998, s.651-68.
  • KLOMP, J., D.H. JAKOB, “Political Institutions and Economic Volatility”, European Journal of Political Economy, Vol.25, 2009, s.311-26.
  • LENSINK, R., N.HERMES, V.MURINDE, “Capital Flight and Political Risk”, Journal of Money and Finance, Vol.19, 2000, s.73-92.
  • MALLEY, J., A.PHILIPPOPOULOS, U.WOITEk, “Electoral Uncertainty, Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Fluctuations”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol.31, 2007, s.1051-80.
  • NELSON,D.B., “Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach”, Econometrica, Vol.59, 1991, s.347-70.
  • PALDAM, M., “Inflation and Political Instability in Eight Latin American Countries 1946-83”, Public Choice, 52, 1987, s.143-68.
  • PERRY, R.L., J.D. ROBERTSON, “Political Markets, Bond Markets and the Effect of Uncertainty: A Cross-National Analysis”, International Studies Quarterly, Vol.42, 1998, s.131-60.
  • ROBERTSON, J.D., “The Political Economy and the Durability of European Coalisition Cabinets: New Variations on a Game-Theoric Perspective”, Journal of Politics, Vol.45, 1983, s.932-57.
  • STROM, K., “Minority Government and Majority Rule, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1990.
  • TELATAR, F., “Türkiye’de Politika DeğiĢkenliği ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik ĠliĢkileri”, ĠĢletme ve Finans, 211, 2003, 71-91.
There are 30 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Hakan Demirgil

Publication Date March 17, 2015
Submission Date March 17, 2015
Published in Issue Year 2011 Volume: 31 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Demirgil, H. (2015). POLİTİK İSTİKRARSIZLIK, BELİRSİZLİK VE MAKROEKONOMİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ (1970-2006). Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 31(2), 123-144.
AMA Demirgil H. POLİTİK İSTİKRARSIZLIK, BELİRSİZLİK VE MAKROEKONOMİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ (1970-2006). Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi. March 2015;31(2):123-144.
Chicago Demirgil, Hakan. “POLİTİK İSTİKRARSIZLIK, BELİRSİZLİK VE MAKROEKONOMİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ (1970-2006)”. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi 31, no. 2 (March 2015): 123-44.
EndNote Demirgil H (March 1, 2015) POLİTİK İSTİKRARSIZLIK, BELİRSİZLİK VE MAKROEKONOMİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ (1970-2006). Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi 31 2 123–144.
IEEE H. Demirgil, “POLİTİK İSTİKRARSIZLIK, BELİRSİZLİK VE MAKROEKONOMİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ (1970-2006)”, Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, vol. 31, no. 2, pp. 123–144, 2015.
ISNAD Demirgil, Hakan. “POLİTİK İSTİKRARSIZLIK, BELİRSİZLİK VE MAKROEKONOMİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ (1970-2006)”. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi 31/2 (March 2015), 123-144.
JAMA Demirgil H. POLİTİK İSTİKRARSIZLIK, BELİRSİZLİK VE MAKROEKONOMİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ (1970-2006). Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi. 2015;31:123–144.
MLA Demirgil, Hakan. “POLİTİK İSTİKRARSIZLIK, BELİRSİZLİK VE MAKROEKONOMİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ (1970-2006)”. Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, vol. 31, no. 2, 2015, pp. 123-44.
Vancouver Demirgil H. POLİTİK İSTİKRARSIZLIK, BELİRSİZLİK VE MAKROEKONOMİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ (1970-2006). Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi. 2015;31(2):123-44.

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