TÜRKİYE’DE FİNANSAL GELİŞME EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ

Year 2006, Issue: 17, 1 - 20, 01.12.2006

Özgür Aslan H. Levent Korap

Abstract

Son yıllarda, finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki, yazında dikkat çeken konulardan biri haline gelmiştir. Teorik açıdan bakıldığında, bu ilişkinin izleri Bagehot, Schumpeter, son zamanlarda, McKinnon ve Shaw’ın çalışmalarında görülmektedir. Bu çalışma, Türkiye Ekonomisinde finansal gelişme ekonomik büyüme ilişkisini, 1987.I-2004.VI dahilinde Johansen eşbütünleşim ve Granger nedensellik ekonometrik tekniklerini kullanarak incelemektedir. Eşbütünleşim analizinin sonuçlarına göre, çalışmada kullanılan finansal gelişme göstergeleri ve ekonomik büyüme arasında uzun dönemli ilişki bulunmaktadır. Buna karşın, finansal gelişme ekonomik büyüme arsındaki nedenselliğin yönü finansal gelişmişlik göstergelerine göre değişmektedir.

Keywords

Finansal Gelişme, Ekonomik Büyüme, Zaman Serileri, Birim Kök, Granger Nedensellik Testi, Eşbütünleşim

Financial Development and Economic Growth Relationship in Turkey

Abstract

The link between financial development and economic growth has received considerable attention in recent literature. Moreover, on the theoretical side, this relationship can be traced back at least to Bagehot, Schumpeter, more recently, McKinnon and Shaw. In this context, this paper examines the relationship between financial development and economic growth empirically in Turkish Economy from 1987.I-2004.IV using Johansen cointegration and Granger causality econometric techniques. Cointegration analysis results show that there is a long-run relationship between financial development indicators and economic growth. However, direction of causality between financial development and economic growth differs according to the financial development indicators.

Keywords

Financial Development, Economic Growth, Time Series, Unit Root, Granger Causality Test, Cointegration

References

• Ahmed, S. M. ve Ansari, M. I. (1998); “Financial Sector Development and Economic Growth: The South-Asian Experience”, Journal of Asian Economics, Volume 9, Issue 3 , s. 503-517.
• Al-Yousif, Yousif Khalifa (2002); “Financial Development and Economic Growth: Another Look at the Evidence from Developing Countries”, Review of Financial Economics, Volume 11, Issue 2 , s. 131-150.
• Andersen, Thomas Barnebeck ve Tarp, Finn (2003); “Financial Liberalization, Financial Development and Economic Growth in LDCs”, Journal of International Development, Vol. 15, Iss. 2, s. 189-209.
• Arestis, Philip; Demetriades, Panicos O.; Luintel, Kul B. (2001); “Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Role of Stock Markets”, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 33, Iss. 1, s. 16-41.
• Engle, Robert F. ve Granger, C. W. J. (1987); “Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing”, Econometrica, 55, s. 251-276.
• Atindéhou, Roger B.; Gueyie, Jean Pierre ve Amenounve, Edoh Kossi (2005); “Financial Intermediation and Economic Growth: Evidence From Western Africa”, Applied Financial Economics, Volume 15, Number 11, s. 777-790.
• Beck, Thorsten; Levine, Ross ve Loayza, Norman (2000); “Finance and the Sources of Growth”, Journal of Financial Economics, Volume 58, Issues 1-2 , s. 261-300.
• Becsi, Zsolt ve Wang, Ping (1997); “Financial Development and Growth”, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review, Fourth Quarter, Vol. 82, Iss. 4, s. 46-62.
• Bencivenga, Valerie R. ve Smith, Bruce D. (1991); “Financial Intermediation and Endogenous Growth”, The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 58, No. 2, s. 195-209.
• Calderon, César ve Liu, Lin (2003); “The Direction of Causality Between Financial Development and Economic Growth”, Journal of Development Economics, Volume 72, Issue 1, s. 321–334.
• Capasso, Salvatore (2004); “Financial Markets, Development and Economic Growth: Tales of Informational Asymmetries”, Journal of Economic Surveys, Volume 18, Issue 3, s. 267-292.
• Chang, Tsangyao (2002); “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Mainland China: A Note on Testing Demand-Following or Supply Leading Hypothesis”, Applied Economics Letters, Volume 9, Number 13, s. 869-873.
• Chang, Tsangyao ve Caudill, Steven B. (2005); “Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Case of Taiwan”, Applied Economics, Volume 37, Number 12, s. 1329-1335.
• Christopoulos, Dimitris K. ve Tsionas, Efthymios G. (2004); “Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from Panel Unit Root and Cointegration Tests”, Journal of Development Economics, Volume 73, Issue 1, s. 55-74.
• Çulha, Olcay Y., Özlü, Pınar Ö., Yalçın, Cihan (2005); “Mali Yapı ve Derinliğin Ekonomik Büyümedeki Rolü: Şirketler Düzeyinde Analiz”, içinde Türkiye İçin Sürdürülebilir Büyüme Stratejileri Konferansı, Tüsiad Yayınları, s. 71-121.
• Dickey, David A. ve Fuller, Wayne A. (1979); “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 74, s. 427-431.
• Dickey, David A., Jansen, Dennis W., Thornton, Daniel L. (1991); “A Primer on Cointegration with An Application to Money and Income”, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April, s. 58-78.
• Driffill, John (2003); “Growth and Finance”, The Manchester School, Volume 71, Issue 4, s. 363-380.
• Dritsakis, Nikolaos ve Adamopoulos, Antonios (2004); “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Greece: An Empirical Investigation with Granger Causality Analysis”, International Economic Journal, Vol. 18, No. 4, s. 547-559.
• Ghali, Khalifa H. (1999); “Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Tunisian Experience”, Review of Development Economics, Volume 3, Issue 3, s. 310–322.
• Ghirmay, Teame (2004); “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan African Countries: Evidence from Time Series Analysis”, African Development Review, Vol. 16, Issue 3, s. 415–432.
• Granger, C. W. J. ve Newbold, Paul (1974); “Spurious Regressions in Economics”, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 2/ 2, s. 111-120.
• Harris, R. I. D. (1995); Using Cointegration Analysis in Econometric Modelling, Prentice Hall.
• Jayaratne, Jith ve Strahan, Philip E. (1996); “The Finance-Growth Nexus: Evidence from Bank Branch Deregulation”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 111, No. 3, s. 639-670.
• Johansen, Søren (1988); “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, s. 231-254.
• Johansen, Søren ve Juselius, Katarina (1990); “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inferences on Cointegration with applications to the demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, s. 169-210.
• Khan, Aubhik (2000); “The Finance Growth Nexus”, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Review, January/February, s. 3-14.
• King, Robert G. ve Levine, Ross (1993); “Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might be Right”, The World Bank Policy Research Working Papers, WPSno: 1083.
• Kirkpatrick, Colin ve Green, Christopher (2002); “Finance and Development: An Overview of the Issues”, Journal of International Development, Vol. 14, Issue 2, 207-209.
• Luintel Kul B. ve Khan, Mosahid (1999); “A Quantitative Reassessment of the Finance–Growth Nexus: Evidence from a Multivariate VAR”, Journal of Development Economics, Volume 60, Issue 2, s. 381-405.
• MacKinnon, J. G. (1996); “Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 11, s. 601-618.
• MacKinnon, James G., Alfred A. Haug, Leo Michelis (1999); “Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests For Cointegration” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 14, s. 563-577.
• Mishkin, Frederic S. (2004); The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Seventh Edition, Pearson-Addison Wesley, United States of America.
• Murinde, Victor ve Eng, Fern S.H. (1994); “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Singapore: Demand-Following or Supply Leading?”, Applied Financial Economics, Vol. 4, Issue 6, s. 391-404.
• Nazmi, Nader (2005); “Deregulation, Financial Deepening and Economic Growth: The Case of Latin America”, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Volume 45, Issues 2-3 , s. 447-459.
• OECD-TÜSİAD (2005); Ekonomik Büyümeyi Anlamak, Çev. Tüsiad Ekonomik Araştırmalar Bölümü, OECD yayınları.
• Osterwald-Lenum, Michael (1992); “A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 54, s. 461-472.
• Pagano, Marco (1993); “Financial Markets and Growth: An Overview”, European Economic Review, Vol. 37, Issue 2-3, s. 613–622.
• Patrick, Hugh T. (1966); “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Underdeveloped Countries”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol. 14 (2), s. 174–189.
• Rioja, Felix ve Valev, Neven (2004); “Finance and the Sources of Growth at Various Stages of Economic Development”, Economic Inquiry, Vol. 42, No. 1, s. 127-140.
• Robinson, Joan (1952); “The Generalization of the General Theory”, içinde The Rate of Interest, and Other Essays, London: Macmillan, s. 67-142.
• Shan, Jordan (2005); “Does Financial Development ‘Lead’ Economic Growth? A Vector Auto-Regression Appraisal”, Applied Economics, Volume 37, Number 12, s. 1353-1367.
• Spears, Annie (1991); “Financial Development and Economic Growth Causality Tests”, Atlantic Economic Journal, Vol. 19, Issue 3, s. 66.
• Thangavelu, Shandre M. ve Jiunn, Ang Beng James (2004); “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Australia: An Empirical Analysis”, Empirical Economics, Vol. 29, Issue 2, s. 247–260.
• Ünalmış, Deren (2002); “The Causality Between Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey”, The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Research Department Working Paper, No: 3, s. 1-11.
• Valderrama, Diego (2003); “Financial Development, Productivity, and Economic Growth”, FRBSF Economic Letter, Vol. 2003, Issue 18, s. 1-3.
• Zhang, Zongyi ve Yao, Shujie (2002); “Financial Deepening and Economic Development in China”, Asia Pacific Business Review, Volume 8, Number 3, s. 61–75.