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Türkiye için Borç Sürdürülebilirliği Analizi: MAC-DSA Yaklaşımından Bulgular

Year 2022, Volume: 4 Issue: 1, 34 - 53, 30.06.2022

Abstract

Bütçe açıklarının sürdürülebilirliği ve mali sürdürülebilirlik ile bağlantılı olan borç sürdürülebilirliği, başarılı bir maliye politikası için gerekli olan finansman açığının borçlanma yoluyla limitsiz bir biçimde karşılanıp karşılanamayacağıyla da ilişkilidir. Literatürde farklı şekilde tanımlanan ve ampirik analizlere konu olan borç sürdürülebilirliği, teorik olarak kamu borç stoku/gayri safi yurtiçi hâsıla oranının sürdürülebilir bir düzeyde olmasını, kamu gelirlerinin artırılırken kamu harcamalarının azaltılmasını ve üretim kapasitesini artıracak önlemlerin alınmasını ihtiva etmektedir. Başta Uluslararası Para Fonu (IMF) olmak üzere çeşitli kuruluşlar da borç sürdürülebilirliğini analiz etmektedir. Çalışmada, Türkiye gibi borç çevirme riski yüksek olan ülkeler için daha gerçekçi senaryolar altında modelleme yapan ve IMF tarafından kullanılan yaklaşım tercih edilmektedir. Bu araştırma merakı ile bu çalışmada, IMF tarafından geliştirilen modelleme (Market Access Countries - Debt Sustainability Analysis/MAC-DSA) yardımıyla Türkiye için cari yıl ve önümüzdeki beş yılın kamu borç stoğunun görünümü ve borcun sürdürülebilirliği analiz edilmektedir. Borç sürdürülebilirliği ve MAC-DSA yaklaşımına ilişkin temel bilgilerin verilmesi sonrasında analiz bulguları, Türkiye'de önümüzdeki beş yıl için kamu borç stoğunun azalmasına işaret etmektedir ve kamu kamu kesimi borçlanma gereğinin %30'un üzerine çıkmayacağını göstermektedir. Bununla birlikte, reel faiz oranı, döviz kuru ve kredibilite faktörlerinin Türkiye’nin mali kırılganlığını artırıcı etki gösterecek olması sebebiyle kamu kesimi borçlanma gereği hem temel senaryoda hem şok senaryolarında %15’lik kritik değerin üstünde seyretmeye devam edecektir.

References

  • Andonova, V. G., & Nikolov, M. (2019). Political Economy of Public Debt & Debt Sustainability: The Case of Macedonia Implementing the IMF’s Debt Sustainability Analysis Tool for Market Access Countries To Macedonia. Center for Economic Analyses (CEA) Working Paper.
  • Aristovnik, A., & Boštjan, B. (2007). Fiscal Sustainability in Selected Transition Countries. Journal of Economics, 55(7): 659-675.
  • Bachmair, F. F., & Bogoev, J. (2018). Assessment of Contingent Liabilities and Their Impact on Debt Dynamics in South Africa. Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment (MTI) Global Practice Discussion Paper Series (No. 1). World Bank, 2018.
  • Blanchard, O. (1990). Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Working Papers (No: 79).
  • Blanchard, O., Chouraqui, J-C., Hagemann, R. P., & Sartor, N. (1990). The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy: New Answers to an Old Question. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Economic Studies (No. 15).
  • Bjerkholt, O. (2004). New Approaches to Debt Relief and Debt Sustainability in Ldcs. United Nations Committee for Development (CDP) Policy Background Paper Series (No. 5).
  • Broda, C., & Weinstein, E. D. (2004). Happy News from the Dismal Science: Reassessing Japanese Fiscal Policy and Sustainability. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Working Paper (No. 10988).
  • Buchanan, J. M., & Wagner, R. E. (1977). Democracy in Deficit: The Political Legacy of Lord Keynes. New York: Academic Press. Buiter, W. (1985). Guide to Public Sector Debt and Deficits. Economic Policy, 1(1): 13-79. https://doi.org/10.2307/1344612
  • Burnside, C. (2005). Theoretical Prerequisites for Fiscal Sustainability Analysis. İçinde C. Burnside, Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice: A Handbook (s. 11-32). Washington: The World Bank.
  • Calvo, G., Isquierdo, A., & Talvi, E. (2003). Sudden Stop, The Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina’s Lessons. Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) Research Department Paper.
  • Croce, M. E., & Juan-Ramon, M. V. H. (2003). Assessing Fiscal Sustainability: A Cross Country Comparison. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Working Paper (No. 03/145). https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451856569.001
  • Demir, E., & Can, G., (2015). Borç Sürdürülebilirliğine İlişkin Değerlendirme. Türkiye İş Bankası Raporu. https://ekonomi.isbank.com.tr/ContentManagement/Documents/ar_05_2015.pdf (Erişim Tarihi:13.10.2021)
  • Dokuzoğlu, S. (2018). Kamu Borç Yönetimi ve Vade Yapısına İlişkin Teorik Yaklaşımlar. Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Yenilik Dergisi, 4(2): 97-117.
  • Edwards, S. (2002). Debt Relief and Fiscal Sustainability. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Working Papers (No. 8939).
  • Eroğlu, E., & Maraş, G. (2019). Mali Sürdürülebilirlik Yaklaşımları ve Mali Sürdürülebilirliğe İlişkin Literatür Değerlendirmesi. Turkish Studies, 14(3): 803-829. https://doi.org/10.29228/TurkishStudies.23019
  • Geithner, T. (2002). Assessing Sustainability. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Policy Development and Review Department Paper.
  • Göker, Z. (2005). Sürdürülebilir Borç Düzeyi: Teori ve Türkiye Örneği. Maliye Araştırma Merkezi Konferansları (Maliye Çalışmaları Dergisi), 48(2): 39-49.
  • Guzman, M., & Heymann, D. (2015). The IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis: Issues and Problems. The Journal of Globalization and Development, 6(2): 387-404. https://doi.org/10.1515/jgd-2015-0034.
  • Horne, J. (1991). Indicators of Fiscal Sustainability. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Working Paper (No. 91/5). https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451842081.001
  • IMF (2002). Assessing Sustainability. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Policy Development and Review Department.
  • IMF (2005). Modifications to the Fund's Debt Sustainability Assessment Framework for Market Access Countries. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Policy Development and Review Department.
  • IMF (2011). Modernizing the Framework for Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Sustainability Analysis. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Fiscal Affairs Department and the Strategy, Policy, and Review Department.
  • IMF (2013). Staff Guidance Note for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis in Market Access Countries. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Policy Paper.
  • IMF (2018). Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Turkey. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Country Report (No. 18/110).
  • IMF (2021). Review of the Debt Sustainability Framework for Market Access Countries. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Policy Paper (No. PR21/31).
  • İnan, E. A. (2003). Kamu Borç Stokunun Sürdürülebilirliği ve Türkiye. Bankacılar Dergisi, 46(3): 15-38.
  • Jha, R. (2012). Analytical Approaches to Assessing Public Debt Sustainability. İçinde B. Ferrarini, J., R. Jha, & A. Ramayandi, Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia (s. 14-43). Oxfordshire: Routledge.
  • Joseph, S. A. (2008). An Exploration of Alternative Methodologies for Assesing Debt and Fiscal Sustainability. Journal of Business, Finance and Economics in Emerging Economies, 3(2): 176-216.
  • Kaya, A. (2012). Mali Sürdürülebilirlik: Teori ve Türkiye Uygulaması. Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi. Ankara Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Ankara.
  • Kumar, M. S., & Woo, J. (2010). Public Debt and Growth. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Working Paper (No. 10/174).
  • Lian, W., Presbitero, A. F., & Wiriadinata, U. (2020). Public Debt and r - g at Risk. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Working Paper (No. 20/137).
  • Lukkezen, J., & Rojas-Romagosa, H. (2013). Stochastic Debt Sustainability Indicators. Journal Revue de l'OFCE, 1(127): 97-121. https://doi.org/10.3917/reof.127.0097
  • Northover, H., Joyner, K., & Woodward, D. (1998). A Human Development Approach to Debt Relief for the World’s Poor. Catholic International Development Charity (CAFOD).
  • Ormaechea, S. A., (2020). Public Debt Dynamics and Intra-Year Exchange Rate Fluctuations. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Working Paper (No: 2020/261). https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513561585.001
  • Rankin, N., & Roffia, B. (2003). Maximum Sustainable Government Debt in the Overlapping Generations Model. The Manchester School, 71(3): 217-241. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9957.00344.
  • Salsman, R. M. (2017). The Political Economy Public Debt: Three Centuries of Theory and Evidence. Massachusetts: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited.
  • Stevanovic, S. (2021, Mart). The Unsustainable Debt of the Republic of Srpska. Jahorina Business Forum 2021 konferansında sunulmuş bildiri. Erişim adresi http://jbf.ekofis.ues.rs.ba/images/2021/ZR_JPF2021/23_Stevanovic.pdf.
  • Wyplosz, C. (2007). Debt Sustainability Assessment: The IMF Approach and Alternatives. The Graduate Institute of International Studies at Geneva IHEID Working Papers (03/2007).
  • Yakita, A. (2008). Sustainability of Public Debt, Public Capital Formation, and Endogenous Growth in an Overlapping Generations Setting. Journal of Public Economics, 92(3-4): 897-914. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2007.05.007
Year 2022, Volume: 4 Issue: 1, 34 - 53, 30.06.2022

Abstract

References

  • Andonova, V. G., & Nikolov, M. (2019). Political Economy of Public Debt & Debt Sustainability: The Case of Macedonia Implementing the IMF’s Debt Sustainability Analysis Tool for Market Access Countries To Macedonia. Center for Economic Analyses (CEA) Working Paper.
  • Aristovnik, A., & Boštjan, B. (2007). Fiscal Sustainability in Selected Transition Countries. Journal of Economics, 55(7): 659-675.
  • Bachmair, F. F., & Bogoev, J. (2018). Assessment of Contingent Liabilities and Their Impact on Debt Dynamics in South Africa. Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment (MTI) Global Practice Discussion Paper Series (No. 1). World Bank, 2018.
  • Blanchard, O. (1990). Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Working Papers (No: 79).
  • Blanchard, O., Chouraqui, J-C., Hagemann, R. P., & Sartor, N. (1990). The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy: New Answers to an Old Question. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Economic Studies (No. 15).
  • Bjerkholt, O. (2004). New Approaches to Debt Relief and Debt Sustainability in Ldcs. United Nations Committee for Development (CDP) Policy Background Paper Series (No. 5).
  • Broda, C., & Weinstein, E. D. (2004). Happy News from the Dismal Science: Reassessing Japanese Fiscal Policy and Sustainability. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Working Paper (No. 10988).
  • Buchanan, J. M., & Wagner, R. E. (1977). Democracy in Deficit: The Political Legacy of Lord Keynes. New York: Academic Press. Buiter, W. (1985). Guide to Public Sector Debt and Deficits. Economic Policy, 1(1): 13-79. https://doi.org/10.2307/1344612
  • Burnside, C. (2005). Theoretical Prerequisites for Fiscal Sustainability Analysis. İçinde C. Burnside, Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice: A Handbook (s. 11-32). Washington: The World Bank.
  • Calvo, G., Isquierdo, A., & Talvi, E. (2003). Sudden Stop, The Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina’s Lessons. Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) Research Department Paper.
  • Croce, M. E., & Juan-Ramon, M. V. H. (2003). Assessing Fiscal Sustainability: A Cross Country Comparison. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Working Paper (No. 03/145). https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451856569.001
  • Demir, E., & Can, G., (2015). Borç Sürdürülebilirliğine İlişkin Değerlendirme. Türkiye İş Bankası Raporu. https://ekonomi.isbank.com.tr/ContentManagement/Documents/ar_05_2015.pdf (Erişim Tarihi:13.10.2021)
  • Dokuzoğlu, S. (2018). Kamu Borç Yönetimi ve Vade Yapısına İlişkin Teorik Yaklaşımlar. Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Yenilik Dergisi, 4(2): 97-117.
  • Edwards, S. (2002). Debt Relief and Fiscal Sustainability. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Working Papers (No. 8939).
  • Eroğlu, E., & Maraş, G. (2019). Mali Sürdürülebilirlik Yaklaşımları ve Mali Sürdürülebilirliğe İlişkin Literatür Değerlendirmesi. Turkish Studies, 14(3): 803-829. https://doi.org/10.29228/TurkishStudies.23019
  • Geithner, T. (2002). Assessing Sustainability. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Policy Development and Review Department Paper.
  • Göker, Z. (2005). Sürdürülebilir Borç Düzeyi: Teori ve Türkiye Örneği. Maliye Araştırma Merkezi Konferansları (Maliye Çalışmaları Dergisi), 48(2): 39-49.
  • Guzman, M., & Heymann, D. (2015). The IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis: Issues and Problems. The Journal of Globalization and Development, 6(2): 387-404. https://doi.org/10.1515/jgd-2015-0034.
  • Horne, J. (1991). Indicators of Fiscal Sustainability. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Working Paper (No. 91/5). https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451842081.001
  • IMF (2002). Assessing Sustainability. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Policy Development and Review Department.
  • IMF (2005). Modifications to the Fund's Debt Sustainability Assessment Framework for Market Access Countries. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Policy Development and Review Department.
  • IMF (2011). Modernizing the Framework for Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Sustainability Analysis. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Fiscal Affairs Department and the Strategy, Policy, and Review Department.
  • IMF (2013). Staff Guidance Note for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis in Market Access Countries. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Policy Paper.
  • IMF (2018). Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Turkey. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Country Report (No. 18/110).
  • IMF (2021). Review of the Debt Sustainability Framework for Market Access Countries. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Policy Paper (No. PR21/31).
  • İnan, E. A. (2003). Kamu Borç Stokunun Sürdürülebilirliği ve Türkiye. Bankacılar Dergisi, 46(3): 15-38.
  • Jha, R. (2012). Analytical Approaches to Assessing Public Debt Sustainability. İçinde B. Ferrarini, J., R. Jha, & A. Ramayandi, Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia (s. 14-43). Oxfordshire: Routledge.
  • Joseph, S. A. (2008). An Exploration of Alternative Methodologies for Assesing Debt and Fiscal Sustainability. Journal of Business, Finance and Economics in Emerging Economies, 3(2): 176-216.
  • Kaya, A. (2012). Mali Sürdürülebilirlik: Teori ve Türkiye Uygulaması. Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi. Ankara Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Ankara.
  • Kumar, M. S., & Woo, J. (2010). Public Debt and Growth. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Working Paper (No. 10/174).
  • Lian, W., Presbitero, A. F., & Wiriadinata, U. (2020). Public Debt and r - g at Risk. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Working Paper (No. 20/137).
  • Lukkezen, J., & Rojas-Romagosa, H. (2013). Stochastic Debt Sustainability Indicators. Journal Revue de l'OFCE, 1(127): 97-121. https://doi.org/10.3917/reof.127.0097
  • Northover, H., Joyner, K., & Woodward, D. (1998). A Human Development Approach to Debt Relief for the World’s Poor. Catholic International Development Charity (CAFOD).
  • Ormaechea, S. A., (2020). Public Debt Dynamics and Intra-Year Exchange Rate Fluctuations. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Working Paper (No: 2020/261). https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513561585.001
  • Rankin, N., & Roffia, B. (2003). Maximum Sustainable Government Debt in the Overlapping Generations Model. The Manchester School, 71(3): 217-241. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9957.00344.
  • Salsman, R. M. (2017). The Political Economy Public Debt: Three Centuries of Theory and Evidence. Massachusetts: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited.
  • Stevanovic, S. (2021, Mart). The Unsustainable Debt of the Republic of Srpska. Jahorina Business Forum 2021 konferansında sunulmuş bildiri. Erişim adresi http://jbf.ekofis.ues.rs.ba/images/2021/ZR_JPF2021/23_Stevanovic.pdf.
  • Wyplosz, C. (2007). Debt Sustainability Assessment: The IMF Approach and Alternatives. The Graduate Institute of International Studies at Geneva IHEID Working Papers (03/2007).
  • Yakita, A. (2008). Sustainability of Public Debt, Public Capital Formation, and Endogenous Growth in an Overlapping Generations Setting. Journal of Public Economics, 92(3-4): 897-914. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2007.05.007
There are 39 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Emin Efecan Aktaş 0000-0001-7751-3275

Kemal Can 0000-0001-7908-4283

Publication Date June 30, 2022
Submission Date February 16, 2022
Acceptance Date May 26, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2022 Volume: 4 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Aktaş, E. E., & Can, K. (2022). Türkiye için Borç Sürdürülebilirliği Analizi: MAC-DSA Yaklaşımından Bulgular. Necmettin Erbakan Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, 4(1), 34-53.

Journal of Necmettin Erbakan University Faculty of Political Sciences is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (CC BY NC).