L−MOMENTLER YÖNTEMİYLE KARADENİZ’E DÖKÜLEN AKARSULARA AİT YILLIK ANLIK MAKSİMUM AKIM DEĞERLERİNİN BÖLGESEL FREKANS ANALİZİ

Year 2017, , 571 - 580, 31.07.2017

Hatice Çıtakoğlu , Vahdettin Demir , Tefaruk Haktanır

https://doi.org/10.28948/ngumuh.341711

Cited By: 8

Abstract

   Bu araştırmada, Karadeniz’e dökülen
akarsulardaki 52 adet akım gözlem istasyonuna ait Yıllık Anlık Maksimum Akım
(YAMA) verileri kullanılarak L-Momentler yöntemiyle bölgesel frekans analizi
yapılmıştır. Hosking tarafından sağlanan bilgisayar programı kullanılarak
gerçekleştirilen uygulama beş büyük havzayı kapsayan çalışma alanının tek
başına bir bütün olarak homojen bir bölge olmadığını ortaya çıkarmıştır (H₁=13,60>>1,0).
Bu havzaların fizyografik ve hidrolojik özellikleri göz önüne alınarak ve H₁
kriterine göre, çalışma alanı 11 farklı homojen bölgeye ayrılmıştır. Z^DIST
uygunluk testi sonuçlarına göre 11 alt bölgenin beşinde Genelleştirilmiş Normal
dağılım en uygun olasılık dağılımı olarak belirlenmiştir ve Genelleştirilmiş
Ekstrem Değerler, Pearson Tip 3 ve Genelleştirilmiş Lojistik dağılımları
sırasıyla üç, iki ve bir alt bölgede en uygun dağılım olarak bulunmuştur. Bu
dağılımlarla yapılan indeks‒taşkın frekans analizleri sonucunda, çalışma alanı
için 2 yıl ile 1000 yıl arası tekerrür periyotlarında grid yöntem ile bölgesel
Yıllık Anlık Maksimum Akım haritaları oluşturulmuştur.

Keywords

L−Momentler, taşkın, grid yöntem, radyal tabanlı fonksiyon

REGIONAL FREQUENCY ANALYSIS OF ANNUAL FLOOD PEAKS OF NATURAL STREAMS DISCHARGING TO THE BLACK SEA BY THE L-MOMENTS METHOD

Abstract

   In this study, Regional Frequency Analysis of
annual flood peaks (AFP) series of natural streams discharging to the Black Sea
using AFP series recorded 52 stream-gauging stations is done by L-Moments
method. Application of method performed by using computer program provided by
Hosking reveals that working area including five major basins cannot be treated
as a single homogeneous region as a whole (H₁=13.6>>1.0).
Taking into consideration physiographical and hydrological peculiarities of
these basins and according to H₁ criteria, working area is divided
into 11 different homogeneous regions. According to Z^DIST
goodness-of-fit criterion, Generalized Normal Distribution is determined to be
the best probability distribution in five of eleven sub-regions and Generalized
Extreme Values, Pearson Type 3, Generalized Logistic distributions are found to
be the best in three, two, and one sub-regions, respectively. As a result of index-flood
frequency analysis with these distributions, regional annual flood peaks maps
covering range of return periods from 2 to 1000 years are produced by grid
method for working area.

Keywords

L−Moments, flood, grid method, radial−based function

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