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TEKSTİL İHRACATINDA LİDER ÜLKELERİN TEKSTİL ÜRETİM MİKTARLARINI ETKİLEYEN FAKTÖRLER: DİNAMİK PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Year 2020, Volume: 2 Issue: 2, 1 - 13, 31.12.2020

Abstract

Dünyada birçok ülkenin kalkınmasında en etkili alanlardan biri olan tekstil sektörünün sanayi devriminde de oldukça önemli roller üstlendiği bilinmektedir. Türkiye’ de ise pamuk tarımına bağlı olarak gelişimini sürdüren tekstil sektörü teknolojinin de etkisiyle son yıllarda gelişimine ivme kazandırmıştır. 2003-2013 dönemine ait yıllık verilerin kullanıldığı bu çalışmada tekstil ihracatında önder ülkelerin tekstil üretim miktarlarını etkileyen faktörler incelenmiştir. Yapılan analiz sonucunda ekonometrik modelin dinamik bir yapı teşkil ettiği görülmüş ve tahmin sonuçları GMM-Sistem tahmin tekniği kullanılarak elde edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre tekstil üretim miktarı ile gecikmeli değeri ve nüfus değişkeni arasında %1 seviyesinde, Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla değişkeni ve pamuk üretimi miktarı değişkeni arasında %5 seviyesinde ve enflasyon oranı ile %10 seviyesinde anlamlı bir ilişki vardır. Modelde kontrol değişkeni olan nüfus değişkeni pozitiftir ve teorik beklentilere uygun olarak, nüfusu artışı tekstil üretim miktarını artırmaktadır. Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıladaki %1’lik bir artış tekstil üretiminde %0.06’lık bir azalışa neden olmaktadır. Pamuk üretim miktarı tekstil üretimini pozitif olarak etkilemektedir ve pamuk üretimindeki %10’luk bir artış tekstil üretimine %0.2’lik bir artış sağlamaktadır. Enflasyon oranının katsayısı ise -0.009 olarak tespit edilmiştir ve negatiftir. Teoride beklenildiği gibi enflasyon oranındaki artışlar büyümeyi olumsuz etkilemektedir.

References

  • Amponsah W.A. and Ofori-Boadu V. (2007), Determinants of U.S. textile and apparel trade, International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, 10 (2), 29-48.
  • Arellano M. and Bond S. (1991), Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations, The Review of Economic Studies, 58 (2), 277-297.
  • Arellano M. and Bover O. (1995), Another Look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models, Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 29-51.
  • Aydoğdu G. (2012), Hazır giyim ve konfeksiyon raporu, Çukurova Kalkınma Ajansı Raporu, Adana: Çukurova Kalkınma Ajansı, 1-34.
  • Blundell R. and Bond S. (1998), Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models, Journal of Econometrics, 87 (1), 115-143.
  • Bond S.R., Hoeffler A. and Temple J.R. (2001), GMM estimation of empirical growth models, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. 2001-W21: 1-33.
  • Bozkurt K. (2007), Technological development and economic growth in Turkish manufacturing industry: In the context of endogenous growth models, Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 44 (513), 64-74.
  • Chan E.M.H., Au K.F. and Sarkar M. K. (2008), Antecedents to India’s textile exports: 1985-2005, International Journal of Indian Culture and Business Management, 1 (3), 265-276.
  • Ekti E. (2013), Tekstil Sektörü Raporu Sektörel Raporlar Serisi, T.C. Doğu Marmara Kalkınma Ajansı, Düzce Yatırım Destek Ofisi.
  • Erkişi K. and Boğa S. (2019), High-technology products export and economic growth: A panel data analysis for EU-15 countries, Bingöl Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 9 (18), 669-683.
  • Gereffi G. (1999), International trade and industrial upgrading in the apparel commodity chain, Journal of International Economics, 48(1), 37-70.
  • Gereffi G. (2002), Outsourcing and changing patterns of international competition in the apparel commodity chain, Responding to Globalization: Societies, Groups and Individuals Conference, April 4-7, 2002, Boulder, Colorado.
  • Gündüz F.F., Akay O., Gündüz S. and Dölekoglu, C. Ö. (2020), Determination of the factors affecting cotton export of Turkey: A panel gravity model approach, The Academic Elegance, 7 (13), 547-564.
  • Hatırlı S. A., Oğuztürk B. S., Önder K., Demirel O. (2012), Demand function of textile and apparel export, Ataturk University Journal of Economics & Administrative Sciences, 26 (3-4), 185-198.
  • Kanoğlu S. and Öngüt C. (2003), Dünya’da ve Türkiye’de tekstil-hazır giyim sektörleri ve Türkiye’nin rekabet gücü, Devlet Planlama Teskilati Iktisadi Sektörler ve Koordinasyon Genel Müdürlügü. Tech. Rep. No: 2668.
  • Keane J. and te Velde D.W. (2008), The role of textile and clothing industries in growth and development strategies, Investment and Growth Programme Overseas Development Institute, London.
  • Jongwanich J. (2007), Workers’ remittances, economic growth and poverty in developing Asia and the Pacific countries, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, UNESCAP Working Paper (No. WP/07/01), 1-21.
  • Jung H. and Kwon H. U. (2007), An alternative system gmm estimation in dynamic panel models, Hitotsubashi University Research Unit for Statistical Analysis in Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Research. Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series, No: 217, 1-15.
  • Mhadhbi K. (2014), Financial development and economic growth: A dynamic panel data analysis, International Journal of Econometrics and Financial Management, 2 (2), 48-58.
  • Pesaran H. (2007), A simple panel unit root tests in the presence of cross section dependence, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22 (2), 265– 312.
  • Roodman D. (2006), How to Do xtabond2: An Introduction to “Difference” and “System” GMM in Stata. North American Stata Users' Group Meetings 2006 from Stata Users Group, 103, 1-50.
  • Şahin D. (2015), Analysis of competitiveness Turkey and China’s textile and clothing industry, Akademik Bakış Uluslararası Hakemli Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, (47), 155-171.
  • UIB. (2018), Uludağ İhracatçı Birlikleri Türkiye Tekstil Sektörü ve Bursa. www.uib.org.tr, Erişim tarihi: 20.08.2020.
  • Uyanık S. and Çelikel D. C. (2019), The general situation of textile industry in Turkey, Journal of Technical Sciences, 9 (1), 32-41.
  • WTO. (2012), World Trade Organization. World Trade Report, Trade and public policies. www.wto.org, Erişim tarihi: 05.02.2020.
  • Zhao H., and Lin B. (2019), Will agglomeration improve the energy efficiency in China’s textile industry: evidence and policy implications, Applied Energy, 237, 326-337.

THE FACTORS AFFECTING TEXTILE PRODUCTION AMOUNTS OF LEADING COUNTRIES IN TEXTILE EXPORT: DYNAMIC PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

Year 2020, Volume: 2 Issue: 2, 1 - 13, 31.12.2020

Abstract

It is known that the textile industry, which is one of the most influential areas in the development of many countries in the world, played a very important role in the Industrial Revolution. The textile industry in Turkey, which continues its development depending on cotton farming, has gained momentum in terms of development in recent years. In this study, in which the annual data for the 2003-2013 period were used, the factors affecting the textile production amounts of the leading countries in textile export were examined. As a result of the analysis, it was found that the econometric model constituted a dynamic structure, and the estimation results were obtained by using the GMM-System estimation technique. According to the results obtained, there is a significant correlation of textile production amount with lagged value and population variables at a 1% level, with Gross Domestic Product and cotton production at a 5% level, and with the inflation rate at a 10% level. population variable, which is the control variable in the model, is positive and per theoretical expectations, population increase boosts the amount of textile production. An increase of 1% in the Gross Domestic Product causes a decrease of 0.06% in textile production. The amount of cotton production positively affects textile production and a 10% increase in cotton production leads to a 0.2% increase in textile production. The coefficient of the inflation rate was determined as -0.009 and it was negative. As expected in theory, increases in inflation rate adversely affect growth.
Keywords: Textile Export, Textile Production, Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

References

  • Amponsah W.A. and Ofori-Boadu V. (2007), Determinants of U.S. textile and apparel trade, International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, 10 (2), 29-48.
  • Arellano M. and Bond S. (1991), Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations, The Review of Economic Studies, 58 (2), 277-297.
  • Arellano M. and Bover O. (1995), Another Look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models, Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 29-51.
  • Aydoğdu G. (2012), Hazır giyim ve konfeksiyon raporu, Çukurova Kalkınma Ajansı Raporu, Adana: Çukurova Kalkınma Ajansı, 1-34.
  • Blundell R. and Bond S. (1998), Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models, Journal of Econometrics, 87 (1), 115-143.
  • Bond S.R., Hoeffler A. and Temple J.R. (2001), GMM estimation of empirical growth models, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. 2001-W21: 1-33.
  • Bozkurt K. (2007), Technological development and economic growth in Turkish manufacturing industry: In the context of endogenous growth models, Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 44 (513), 64-74.
  • Chan E.M.H., Au K.F. and Sarkar M. K. (2008), Antecedents to India’s textile exports: 1985-2005, International Journal of Indian Culture and Business Management, 1 (3), 265-276.
  • Ekti E. (2013), Tekstil Sektörü Raporu Sektörel Raporlar Serisi, T.C. Doğu Marmara Kalkınma Ajansı, Düzce Yatırım Destek Ofisi.
  • Erkişi K. and Boğa S. (2019), High-technology products export and economic growth: A panel data analysis for EU-15 countries, Bingöl Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 9 (18), 669-683.
  • Gereffi G. (1999), International trade and industrial upgrading in the apparel commodity chain, Journal of International Economics, 48(1), 37-70.
  • Gereffi G. (2002), Outsourcing and changing patterns of international competition in the apparel commodity chain, Responding to Globalization: Societies, Groups and Individuals Conference, April 4-7, 2002, Boulder, Colorado.
  • Gündüz F.F., Akay O., Gündüz S. and Dölekoglu, C. Ö. (2020), Determination of the factors affecting cotton export of Turkey: A panel gravity model approach, The Academic Elegance, 7 (13), 547-564.
  • Hatırlı S. A., Oğuztürk B. S., Önder K., Demirel O. (2012), Demand function of textile and apparel export, Ataturk University Journal of Economics & Administrative Sciences, 26 (3-4), 185-198.
  • Kanoğlu S. and Öngüt C. (2003), Dünya’da ve Türkiye’de tekstil-hazır giyim sektörleri ve Türkiye’nin rekabet gücü, Devlet Planlama Teskilati Iktisadi Sektörler ve Koordinasyon Genel Müdürlügü. Tech. Rep. No: 2668.
  • Keane J. and te Velde D.W. (2008), The role of textile and clothing industries in growth and development strategies, Investment and Growth Programme Overseas Development Institute, London.
  • Jongwanich J. (2007), Workers’ remittances, economic growth and poverty in developing Asia and the Pacific countries, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, UNESCAP Working Paper (No. WP/07/01), 1-21.
  • Jung H. and Kwon H. U. (2007), An alternative system gmm estimation in dynamic panel models, Hitotsubashi University Research Unit for Statistical Analysis in Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Research. Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series, No: 217, 1-15.
  • Mhadhbi K. (2014), Financial development and economic growth: A dynamic panel data analysis, International Journal of Econometrics and Financial Management, 2 (2), 48-58.
  • Pesaran H. (2007), A simple panel unit root tests in the presence of cross section dependence, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22 (2), 265– 312.
  • Roodman D. (2006), How to Do xtabond2: An Introduction to “Difference” and “System” GMM in Stata. North American Stata Users' Group Meetings 2006 from Stata Users Group, 103, 1-50.
  • Şahin D. (2015), Analysis of competitiveness Turkey and China’s textile and clothing industry, Akademik Bakış Uluslararası Hakemli Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, (47), 155-171.
  • UIB. (2018), Uludağ İhracatçı Birlikleri Türkiye Tekstil Sektörü ve Bursa. www.uib.org.tr, Erişim tarihi: 20.08.2020.
  • Uyanık S. and Çelikel D. C. (2019), The general situation of textile industry in Turkey, Journal of Technical Sciences, 9 (1), 32-41.
  • WTO. (2012), World Trade Organization. World Trade Report, Trade and public policies. www.wto.org, Erişim tarihi: 05.02.2020.
  • Zhao H., and Lin B. (2019), Will agglomeration improve the energy efficiency in China’s textile industry: evidence and policy implications, Applied Energy, 237, 326-337.
There are 26 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Statistics
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Özlem Akay 0000-0002-9539-7252

Selim Gündüz 0000-0001-5289-6089

Fatma Feyza Gündüz 0000-0001-7603-6817

Publication Date December 31, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020 Volume: 2 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Akay, Ö., Gündüz, S., & Gündüz, F. F. (2020). THE FACTORS AFFECTING TEXTILE PRODUCTION AMOUNTS OF LEADING COUNTRIES IN TEXTILE EXPORT: DYNAMIC PANEL DATA ANALYSIS. Nicel Bilimler Dergisi, 2(2), 1-13.