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Sabit Sermaye Yatırımları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Panel Nedensellik Analizi

Year 2014, Volume: 7 Issue: 1, 1 - 2014711132, 01.04.2014

Abstract

Bu çalışmada sabit sermeye yatırımları ve istihdam ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki 27 AB ülkesi ve Türkiye’nin 1991-2011 dönemi için panel birim kök, panel eşbütünleşme ve panel nedensellik analizleri ile test edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre uzun dönemde sabit sermaye yatırımları ve istihdamdan ekonomik büyümeye doğru Granger nedenselliğinin olduğu bulunmuştur. Bununla birlikte kısa dönemde sabit sermaye yatırımlardan ekonomik büyümeye doğru bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunamamıştır.

References

  • AGAYEV, S. (2010) “Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Geçiş Ekonomileri Örneğinde Panel Eştümleşme ve Panel Nedensellik Analizleri” Gazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 12/1 (2010). 159-184
  • AĞIR, H. ve Utlu, S. (2011) “Ar-Ge Harcamaları ile Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: OECD Örneği Panel Eşbütünleşme ve Nedensellik Analizi”, 9. Uluslararası Bilgi Ekonomi ve Yönetim Kongresi Bildiri Kitapçığı, Saraybosna.
  • AĞIR, H., Kar, M. ve Nazlıoğlu, Ş. (2011) “Do Remittances Matter for Financial Development in the MENA Region? Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis”, Empirical Economics Letters, 10(5): 449-456.
  • ARROW, K. J, (1962) "The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing" Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 29, Iss. 3, 155-73.
  • ATEŞ, S. (1998) “İçsel Büyüme Modellerinde Fiziksel Sermaye Yatırımlarının Önemi: Uluslararası Verilerle Bir Bakış” Çukurova Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(1).
  • BARRO, R.J, (1990) “Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth” Journal of Political Economy, 98, 5, 103-125.
  • BARRO, R.J.; X. Sala-i Martin (1995) Economic Growth, McGraw-Hill, Inc.
  • BERBER, M., Sivri, U. ve Artan, S. (2001) “Türkiye'de Yatırım Harcamaları-Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi, AK Modeli Testi, 1968-1998” İstanbul Üniversitesi, Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, Ekim, 61-70.
  • BLOMSTROM, M., R. E. Lipsey ve M. Zejan (1996) “Is Fixed Investment the Key to Economic Growth?” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 111, 269-276.
  • BOSKİN, M. J. ve L. J. Lau (1992) “Capital, Technology and Economic Growth” içinde Rosenberg, ve diğ. (der.), Technology and the Wealth of Nations, ss. 17-55, Stanford University Press, Stanford.
  • BREİTUNG, J., 2000. The local power of some unit root tests for panel data. In: Baltagi, B.H. (Ed.), Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration and Dynamic Panels, Advances in Econometrics 15, pp. 161–177.
  • CHOİ, I. (2001) “Unit Root Tests for Panel Data”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 20: 249–272.
  • DE LONG, J. B. ve Summers, L. (1992) "Equipment Investment and Economic Growth: How Strong Is the Nexus?" Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 157-211, Erişim: http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/projects/bpea/1992%202/1992b_bpea_delo ng_summers_abel.pdf , 02013.
  • DE LONG, J. B., ve Summers, L. (1991) "Equipment Investment and Economic Growth" Quarterly Journal of Economics", 106 (2): 445-502.
  • GÜVEL, E.A. (2011), Ekonomik Büyüme Kuramları: Ulusların Zenginliği’nin Dinamikleri, Karahan Kitabevi, Adana.
  • HADRİ, Kaddour (2000), “Testing for Stationarity in Heterogeneous Panels”, Econometrics Journal, Volume 3, pp. 148-161.
  • IM, K.S., Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., 2003. Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. J. Econometrics 115, 53–74.
  • Niğde Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 2014, Cilt: 7, Sayı: 1, s.1-12 11 JONES, C.I. (1994) “Economic Growth and the Relative Price of Capital” Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 34, Issue 3, pp. 359-382.
  • JONES, C.I. (1995) “Time Series Tests of Endogenous Growth Models” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110 (2), 495-525.
  • KİNG, R. G. ve Levine, R. (1994) “Capital Fundamentalism, Economic Development and Economic Growth” Policy Research Working Paper, no: 1285, Dünya Bankası. LEVİN, A., Lin, C., Chu, C.J., 2002. Unit root rests in panel data: Asymptotic and finitesample properties. J. Economet. 108, 1– 24.
  • LEVİNE, R. ve Renelt, D. (1992) “ A Sensitivity analysis of Cross-country Growth Regressions”, American Economic Review, 82 (4), ss. 943-963.
  • Lİ, D. (2002), “Is the AK Model Still Alive? The Long-Run Relation Between Growth and Investment Reexamined”, Canadian Journal of Economics, 35, 92-114.
  • LUCAS, R.E. (1988) “On the Mechanics of Economic Development” Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, 3-42.
  • MADDALA, G.S. ve Wu, S. (1999) “A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61: 631-6
  • NAZLIOĞLU, Ş. (2010), Exchange rate uncertainty and agricultural trade: panel cointegration analysis for Turkey, Agricultural Economics 41, 537–543.
  • NURKSE, R. (1953), Problems of Capital Formation in Underdeveloped Countries, Oxford: Basil Blackwell.
  • OECD, (2006) “Promoting Private Investment for Development, The Role of ODA” DAC Guidelines and Reference Series, Erişim: http://www.oecd.org/development/povertyreduction/36566902.pdf, 08.07.2013 PEDRONİ, P. (2004) “Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis”, Econometric Theory, 20: 597-625.
  • PEDRONİ, P., 1999. Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors. Oxford Bull. Econ. Stat. 61(Special Issue), 653–670.
  • PEDRONİ, P., 2000. Fully modified OLS for heterogeneous cointegrated panels. In: Baltagi, B.H. (Ed.), Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration and Dynamic Panels, Advances in Econometrics, 15, pp. 93–130.
  • PEDRONİ, Peter (2001), “Purchasing Power Parity Tests in Cointegrated Panels”, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 83, 2001, pp. 727-931.
  • REBELO, S.T. (1991) “Long-Run Policy Analysis and Long-Run Growth” Journal of Political Economy, 99(3), 500-521.
  • ROMER, P.M. (1986) “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth” Journal of Political Economy, 94(5), 1002-1037.
  • ROMER, P.M. (1987) “Growth Based on Increasing Returns Due to Specialization”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 77, No. 2, pp. 56-62.
  • ROMERO-AVİLA, D. (2006), “Can the AK Model Be Rescued: New Evidence From Unit Root Tests With Good Size And Power”, Topics in Macroeconomics, 6, 1ROMERO-AVİLA, D. (2009), “Productive Physical Investment and Growth: Testing the Validity of the AK Model From A Panel Perspective”, Applied Economics, 41(23), 3027-3043.
  • ROSTOW, W.W. (1999) İktisadi Gelişmenin Merhaleleri, Çev. Erol Güngör, Ötüken Yayınları, İstanbul.
  • SOLOW, R. M. (1956) “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70, 214-231.
  • SOLOW, R. M. (1957) “Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 39, 312-320.
  • ŞIKLAR, İ. ve Kaya, A. (1998) “Türkiye’de Özel Sektör Yatırımları ve İçsel Büyüme", Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 9, 61-70.
  • WORLDBANK DATABANK (2013), World Development Indicators, Erişim: http://databank.worldbank.org/data/views/variableselection/selectvariables.asp x?source=world-development-indicators, 15.06.2013

Sabit Sermaye Yatırımları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Panel Nedensellik Analizi

Year 2014, Volume: 7 Issue: 1, 1 - 2014711132, 01.04.2014

Abstract

In this study, the relation between gross fixed investment, employment and economic growth is analyzed in 27 European Union and Turkey between years 1991 and 2011 by employing panel unit root test, panel co-integration and panel causality analyses. According to empirical findings, there is a Granger causation linkage from gross fixed investment and employment to economic growth in the long run. However, there is no Granger causality running from gross fixed investment to economic growth in the short run.

References

  • AGAYEV, S. (2010) “Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Geçiş Ekonomileri Örneğinde Panel Eştümleşme ve Panel Nedensellik Analizleri” Gazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 12/1 (2010). 159-184
  • AĞIR, H. ve Utlu, S. (2011) “Ar-Ge Harcamaları ile Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: OECD Örneği Panel Eşbütünleşme ve Nedensellik Analizi”, 9. Uluslararası Bilgi Ekonomi ve Yönetim Kongresi Bildiri Kitapçığı, Saraybosna.
  • AĞIR, H., Kar, M. ve Nazlıoğlu, Ş. (2011) “Do Remittances Matter for Financial Development in the MENA Region? Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis”, Empirical Economics Letters, 10(5): 449-456.
  • ARROW, K. J, (1962) "The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing" Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 29, Iss. 3, 155-73.
  • ATEŞ, S. (1998) “İçsel Büyüme Modellerinde Fiziksel Sermaye Yatırımlarının Önemi: Uluslararası Verilerle Bir Bakış” Çukurova Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(1).
  • BARRO, R.J, (1990) “Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth” Journal of Political Economy, 98, 5, 103-125.
  • BARRO, R.J.; X. Sala-i Martin (1995) Economic Growth, McGraw-Hill, Inc.
  • BERBER, M., Sivri, U. ve Artan, S. (2001) “Türkiye'de Yatırım Harcamaları-Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi, AK Modeli Testi, 1968-1998” İstanbul Üniversitesi, Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, Ekim, 61-70.
  • BLOMSTROM, M., R. E. Lipsey ve M. Zejan (1996) “Is Fixed Investment the Key to Economic Growth?” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 111, 269-276.
  • BOSKİN, M. J. ve L. J. Lau (1992) “Capital, Technology and Economic Growth” içinde Rosenberg, ve diğ. (der.), Technology and the Wealth of Nations, ss. 17-55, Stanford University Press, Stanford.
  • BREİTUNG, J., 2000. The local power of some unit root tests for panel data. In: Baltagi, B.H. (Ed.), Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration and Dynamic Panels, Advances in Econometrics 15, pp. 161–177.
  • CHOİ, I. (2001) “Unit Root Tests for Panel Data”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 20: 249–272.
  • DE LONG, J. B. ve Summers, L. (1992) "Equipment Investment and Economic Growth: How Strong Is the Nexus?" Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 157-211, Erişim: http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/projects/bpea/1992%202/1992b_bpea_delo ng_summers_abel.pdf , 02013.
  • DE LONG, J. B., ve Summers, L. (1991) "Equipment Investment and Economic Growth" Quarterly Journal of Economics", 106 (2): 445-502.
  • GÜVEL, E.A. (2011), Ekonomik Büyüme Kuramları: Ulusların Zenginliği’nin Dinamikleri, Karahan Kitabevi, Adana.
  • HADRİ, Kaddour (2000), “Testing for Stationarity in Heterogeneous Panels”, Econometrics Journal, Volume 3, pp. 148-161.
  • IM, K.S., Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., 2003. Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. J. Econometrics 115, 53–74.
  • Niğde Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 2014, Cilt: 7, Sayı: 1, s.1-12 11 JONES, C.I. (1994) “Economic Growth and the Relative Price of Capital” Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 34, Issue 3, pp. 359-382.
  • JONES, C.I. (1995) “Time Series Tests of Endogenous Growth Models” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110 (2), 495-525.
  • KİNG, R. G. ve Levine, R. (1994) “Capital Fundamentalism, Economic Development and Economic Growth” Policy Research Working Paper, no: 1285, Dünya Bankası. LEVİN, A., Lin, C., Chu, C.J., 2002. Unit root rests in panel data: Asymptotic and finitesample properties. J. Economet. 108, 1– 24.
  • LEVİNE, R. ve Renelt, D. (1992) “ A Sensitivity analysis of Cross-country Growth Regressions”, American Economic Review, 82 (4), ss. 943-963.
  • Lİ, D. (2002), “Is the AK Model Still Alive? The Long-Run Relation Between Growth and Investment Reexamined”, Canadian Journal of Economics, 35, 92-114.
  • LUCAS, R.E. (1988) “On the Mechanics of Economic Development” Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, 3-42.
  • MADDALA, G.S. ve Wu, S. (1999) “A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61: 631-6
  • NAZLIOĞLU, Ş. (2010), Exchange rate uncertainty and agricultural trade: panel cointegration analysis for Turkey, Agricultural Economics 41, 537–543.
  • NURKSE, R. (1953), Problems of Capital Formation in Underdeveloped Countries, Oxford: Basil Blackwell.
  • OECD, (2006) “Promoting Private Investment for Development, The Role of ODA” DAC Guidelines and Reference Series, Erişim: http://www.oecd.org/development/povertyreduction/36566902.pdf, 08.07.2013 PEDRONİ, P. (2004) “Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis”, Econometric Theory, 20: 597-625.
  • PEDRONİ, P., 1999. Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors. Oxford Bull. Econ. Stat. 61(Special Issue), 653–670.
  • PEDRONİ, P., 2000. Fully modified OLS for heterogeneous cointegrated panels. In: Baltagi, B.H. (Ed.), Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration and Dynamic Panels, Advances in Econometrics, 15, pp. 93–130.
  • PEDRONİ, Peter (2001), “Purchasing Power Parity Tests in Cointegrated Panels”, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 83, 2001, pp. 727-931.
  • REBELO, S.T. (1991) “Long-Run Policy Analysis and Long-Run Growth” Journal of Political Economy, 99(3), 500-521.
  • ROMER, P.M. (1986) “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth” Journal of Political Economy, 94(5), 1002-1037.
  • ROMER, P.M. (1987) “Growth Based on Increasing Returns Due to Specialization”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 77, No. 2, pp. 56-62.
  • ROMERO-AVİLA, D. (2006), “Can the AK Model Be Rescued: New Evidence From Unit Root Tests With Good Size And Power”, Topics in Macroeconomics, 6, 1ROMERO-AVİLA, D. (2009), “Productive Physical Investment and Growth: Testing the Validity of the AK Model From A Panel Perspective”, Applied Economics, 41(23), 3027-3043.
  • ROSTOW, W.W. (1999) İktisadi Gelişmenin Merhaleleri, Çev. Erol Güngör, Ötüken Yayınları, İstanbul.
  • SOLOW, R. M. (1956) “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70, 214-231.
  • SOLOW, R. M. (1957) “Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 39, 312-320.
  • ŞIKLAR, İ. ve Kaya, A. (1998) “Türkiye’de Özel Sektör Yatırımları ve İçsel Büyüme", Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 9, 61-70.
  • WORLDBANK DATABANK (2013), World Development Indicators, Erişim: http://databank.worldbank.org/data/views/variableselection/selectvariables.asp x?source=world-development-indicators, 15.06.2013
There are 39 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Ahmet Şahbaz This is me

Publication Date April 1, 2014
Published in Issue Year 2014 Volume: 7 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Şahbaz, A. (2014). Sabit Sermaye Yatırımları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Panel Nedensellik Analizi. Niğde Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 7(1), 1-2014711132.
AMA Şahbaz A. Sabit Sermaye Yatırımları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Panel Nedensellik Analizi. Niğde Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. April 2014;7(1):1-2014711132.
Chicago Şahbaz, Ahmet. “Sabit Sermaye Yatırımları Ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Panel Nedensellik Analizi”. Niğde Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 7, no. 1 (April 2014): 1-2014711132.
EndNote Şahbaz A (April 1, 2014) Sabit Sermaye Yatırımları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Panel Nedensellik Analizi. Niğde Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 7 1 1–2014711132.
IEEE A. Şahbaz, “Sabit Sermaye Yatırımları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Panel Nedensellik Analizi”, Niğde Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 1–2014711132, 2014.
ISNAD Şahbaz, Ahmet. “Sabit Sermaye Yatırımları Ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Panel Nedensellik Analizi”. Niğde Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 7/1 (April 2014), 1-2014711132.
JAMA Şahbaz A. Sabit Sermaye Yatırımları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Panel Nedensellik Analizi. Niğde Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2014;7:1–2014711132.
MLA Şahbaz, Ahmet. “Sabit Sermaye Yatırımları Ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Panel Nedensellik Analizi”. Niğde Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 7, no. 1, 2014, pp. 1-2014711132.
Vancouver Şahbaz A. Sabit Sermaye Yatırımları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Panel Nedensellik Analizi. Niğde Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2014;7(1):1-2014711132.