AVRUPA BIRLİĞİ ÜLKELERINDE REEL KİŞİ BAŞINA GSYİH DURAĞAN MI? NON-LINEAR PANEL BIRIM KÖK TESTİ

Abstract

Reelkişi başına GDP serilerinin durağan olup olmadığı politika yapımcıları ve ekonomistler için önemlidir. Günümüzde panel birim kök testinin geleneksel birim kök testlerine göre sahip olduğu avantajlardan dolayı, günümüzde GSYİH serilerindeki birim kökün varlığı tekrar analiz edilmektedir.Bu çalışmada, son zamanlarda geliştirilmiş olan non-linear panel birim kök testi ile 1970-2011 dönem aralığında 15 Avrupa Birliği üye ülkesi için reel kişi başına GDP serisinin durağan bir süreç izleyip izlemediği incelenmektedir. Ampirik bulgular reel kişi başına GDP`nin 15 Avrupa Birliği ülkesi için doğrusal olmayan durağan bir yapıya sahip olduğunu göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Reel Kişi Başına GDP, AB Üye Ülkeleri, Durağanlık, Doğrusal Olmayan Birim Kök Testi, Bootstrap Kritik Değer,

IS THE REAL PER CAPITA GDP STATIONARY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION MEMBER STATES? NEW EVIDENCE FROM THE UNIT ROOT TEST IN NONLINEAR HETEROGENEOUS PANEL

Öz

It is important for policy makers and economists whether or not the real per capita GDP is stationary. Nowadays, because of the panel unit root tests have over traditional unit root tests, the presence of unit root in the GDP series is under re-examination. The research presented in this paper applies the recently developed unit root test for nonlinear heterogeneous panel in order to re-examine whether or not the real per capita GDP follows a stationary process for 15 European Union member states over the period 1970-2011. Empirical evidence shows that the real per capita GDP is nonlinear-stationary for the EU-15 member states.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Real Per Capita GDP, EU Member States, Stationarity, Nonlinear Panel Unit Root Test, Bootstrap Citical Value,

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