Abstract
Ykiz açyklar hipotezi, bütçe açyklary ile cari i?lem açyklary arasynda kuvvetli bir korelasyonun varly?yny savunmaktadyr. Ricardocu Denklik Hipotezi, cari açyklar ve bütçe açyklary arasynda herhangibir ili?ki olmady?yny, öte yandan Geleneksel Keynesyen Teori ise söz konusu iki açyk arasynda pozitif bir ili?ki oldu?unu savunur. Bu çaly?mada, bütçe açyklary ile cari i?lem açyklary arasyndaki ili?ki, 1994-2008 dönemi çeyrek dönem verileriyle Johansen e?bütünle?me yöntemi ve Granger nedensellik testiyle Türkiye için synanmy?tyr. E?-bütünle?me analizi sonuçlaryna göre, bütçe açyklary ile cari i?lem açyklary arasynda uzun dönemli bir ili?ki vardyr. Nedensellik analizinin sonuçlaryna göre, dört gecikmede cari açyklardan bütçe açyklaryna do?ru nedensellik bulunmu?tur.
Abstract
Hypothesis of twin deficits are asserted with the existence of a strong correlation between the budget deficits and current account deficits. It is asserted with Ricardo Equivalence Hypothesis that there are not any relating with the current accounts deficits and budget deficits, on the other hand it is asserted with Traditional Keynesian Theory that there are positive relations between said two deficits. With this study, the relations between the budget deficits and current account deficits are examined for Turkey according to the data in quarter period of 1994-2008, Johansen cointegration methods and Granfer causality test. According to the results of cointegration analysis, there are relations between the budget deficits and current account deficits for a long period. According to the results of causality analysis, it is found that there are causalities from current deficits to the budget deficits at four delays.
Details
| Primary Language | Turkish |
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| Journal Section | Finance |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | May 1, 2011 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2011 Volume: 6 Issue: 4 |