TÜRKİYE’DE HİSSE SENETLERİ PİYASASI İLE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİNE ARDL YAKLAŞIMI

Year 2017, Volume: 12 Issue: 4, 185 - 198, 20.10.2017

Nihal Yayla Reşat Ceylan İsmail Çeviş

Abstract

Hisse senedi piyasası ile reel ekonomi
arasında çeşitli kanallardan gerçekleşen çok yakın bir etkileşim olduğu bilinen
bir gerçektir. Hisse senedi piyasaları, hem yurtiçi tasarrufları hem de
yatırımların miktar ve kalitesini artırarak ekonomik büyümeye ivme
kazandırmaktadır.  Ancak teori, bu iki değişken arasındaki ilişkinin
yönünü kesin olarak tanımlayamamaktadır. Bu çalışmada, 2006:1-2016:10 dönemi
için Türkiye’de hisse senedi piyasası ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki
ARDL (Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag)  yaklaşımı ile analiz edilmiştir.
Hisse senedi piyasası ile ekonomik büyümenin göstergesi olarak sırasıyla BIST
ve SÜE (sanayi üretim) endeksinin kullanıldığı analiz sonucunda değişkenler
arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi bulunduğu
tespit edilmiştir.  Uzun dönemde BIST endeksinden SÜE’ye doğru güçlü ve pozitif
bir nedensellik söz konusu iken kısa dönemde bu değişkenler arasında çift yönlü
bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu durum, Borsa
İstanbul’un kendisine atfedilen fonksiyonu yerine getirerek ekonomik büyümeyi
teşvik ettiğini göstermektedir. 

Keywords

Hisse Senetleri Piyasası, Ekonomik Büyüme, Eşbütünleşme, ARDL, BIST

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