COMPARING TIME SERIES FORECASTING METHODS TO ESTIMATE WIND SPEED IN KIRIKKALE REGION

Year 2018, Volume: 13 Issue: 2, 98 - 107, 22.04.2018

Mustafa Yasin Erten Hüseyin Aydilek Ertuğrul Çam Nihat İnanç

Abstract

Due to the non-storable
nature of electric energy, short-term and long-term electricity generation and
consumption forecast are critical to keeping electricity market in balance. In
addition, the production estimate of wind energy is parallel to the estimate of
wind speed. Since wind speed forecasts includes seasonal and time-dependent
trends, time series forecasting methods produce successful results in wind
energy forecasting. However, choosing the most appropriate time series
forecasting method for short-term and long-term production forecasts is of
special importance. In this study, short-term and long-term wind speed
estimations were made for the wind turbine at Kırıkkale University by using
Exponential Smoothing (ES) and ARMA (Auto Regressive Moving Average) methods.
The most suitable methods for forecasting short-term and long-term wind speed
have been determined with the obtained results.

Keywords

Wind Energy, Time Series, Forecasting, ARMA, ES, ES

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