Merkez Bankası Rezervleri İle Ekonomik Aktivite Ve Enflasyon Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisinin Analizi

Year 2022, Volume: 3 Issue: 1, 37 - 45, 07.03.2022

Önder Büberkökü

https://doi.org/10.54614/OJFHSS.2022.1031606

Abstract

Türkiye ekonomisinde son dönemlerde merkez bankası rezervleri konusunda önemli tartışmalar yaşanmaktadır. Bu çalışmada 1985 yılı Ocak ayı ile 2021 yılı Şubat ayı arası dönem dikkate alınarak merkez bankasının resmi rezervleri ile ekonomik aktivite ve enflasyon arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi incelenmiştir. Ekonomik aktiviteyi temsilen sanayi üretim endeksi, enflasyon oranlarını temsilen hem yurt içi üretici fiyat endeksi (Yİ-ÜFE) hem de tüketici fiyat endeksi (TÜFE) kullanılmıştır. Nedensellik analizinde Breitung ve Candelon (2006) frekans alanı nedensellik testi ile Toda ve Yamamoto (1995) nedensellik testinden yararlanılmıştır. Toda ve Yamamoto (1995) nedensellik testine ait sonuçlar merkez bankası rezervlerinden ekonomik aktiviteye ve fiyat endekslerine doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin bulunduğu sonucuna işaret etmektedir. Breitung ve Candelon (2006) frekans alanı nedensellik testine ait sonuçlar ise merkez bankası rezervleri ile sanayi üretim endeksi arasında yüksek ve orta frekanslarda (kısa ve orta vadede) istatistiki olarak anlamlı bir nedensellik ilişkisinin söz konusu olmadığını, düşük frekanslarda (uzun vadede) ise merkez bankası rezervlerinden sanayi üretim endeksine doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin ortaya çıktığını göstermektedir. Merkez bankası rezervleri ile fiyat endeksleri arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisine gelince çalışma bulguları incelenen dönemin tamamın kapsayacak şekilde hem kısa hem orta hem de uzun vadede merkez bankası rezervlerinden fiyat endekslerine doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğu sonucuna işaret etmektedir. Bu kapsamda kısaca ifade etmek gerekirse Türkiye ekonomisi için istikrarlı ekonomik büyüme oranlarının elde edilebilmesinde ve fiyat istikrarının sağlanabilmesinde merkez bankası rezervlerinin oldukça önemli işlevlerinin bulunduğu anlaşılmaktadır.

Keywords

Merkez bankası rezervleri, Ekonomik aktivite, Enflasyon, Nedensellik ilişkisi

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