Demographic microsimulation model for Türkiye

Barış Dulkadir; Mehmet Ali Eryurt

doi:10.26466/opusjsr.1294301

TR EN

Türkiye için Demografik Mikrosimülasyon Modeli

Öz

Bu makale, Türkiye için güvenilir nüfus projeksiyonları oluşturmak amacıyla mikrosimülasyon metodolojisini kullanmaktadır. Mikrosimülasyon, yaşam seyri dinamiklerini yakından taklit ettiğinden demografik değişiklikleri tahmin etmek için oldukça uygundur. Çalışma kapsamında, 2018 Türkiye Nüfus Sağlığı Araştırması verilerini kullanarak, harici kalıplara veya modellere dayanmadan özelleştirmeye olanak ve doğruluk sağlayan yeni bir mikro simülasyon yöntemi geliştirilmiştir. Çalışmamız, mikrosimülasyonun demografi için esneklik ve uyarlanabilirlik sağladığını, nüfusun özniteliklerini tahmin etmek ve projeksiyon yapabilmek için diğer araçların sağlayamadığı tutarlı ve anlamlı sonuçları sağladığını savunmaktadır. Sonuç olarak, dinamik simülasyon modeli Türkiye'deki nüfusla ilgili önemli politika kararları için güvenilir bilgi sağlama potansiyeline sahiptir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Doğurganlık , Hanehalkı İşgücü Araştırması , Mikro simülasyon , Türkiye Nüfus ve Sağlık Araştırması , Veri Eşleştirme

Demographic microsimulation model for Türkiye

Abstract

This paper focuses on the use of microsimulation methodology to generate reliable population estimations for Türkiye. Microsimulation closely mimics life course dynamics and is therefore well-suited for predicting demographic changes. Using data from the 2018 Türkiye Demographic Health Survey, we developed a new microsimulation method that allows for greater customization and accuracy without relying on external patterns or models. The resulting population simulation includes age, education, marital status, usual residence, and labour force status for each individual until 2030. Our study demonstrates the flexibility and adaptability of microsimulation for demography and argues that it provides a coherent and meaningful way to estimate and project population attributes that other tools cannot provide. Ultimately, the dynamic simulation model has the potential to inform important policy decisions related to the population in Türkiye.

Keywords

Data Matching , Fertility , Household Labour Force Survey , Microsimulation , Türkiye Demographic and Health Survey

References

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Labor Economics and Economic Demography

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Barış Dulkadir ^*
0000-0002-0249-6914
Türkiye

Mehmet Ali Eryurt
0000-0002-7405-5667
Türkiye

Early Pub Date

July 31, 2023

Publication Date

July 31, 2023

Submission Date

May 8, 2023

Acceptance Date

July 20, 2023

Published in Issue

Year 2023 Volume: 20 Number: 54

DOI

https://doi.org/10.26466/opusjsr.1294301

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA98UT69BA

APA

Dulkadir, B., & Eryurt, M. A. (2023). Demographic microsimulation model for Türkiye. OPUS Journal of Society Research, 20(54), 446-457. https://doi.org/10.26466/opusjsr.1294301

Türkiye için Demografik Mikrosimülasyon Modeli

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

Demographic microsimulation model for Türkiye

Abstract

Keywords

References

Details

Primary Language

Subjects

Journal Section

Authors

Early Pub Date

Publication Date

Submission Date

Acceptance Date

Published in Issue

DOI

IZ

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