Speculative House Price Bubble Dynamics and Bursting Mechanisms in Türkiye: A Threshold Regression Model Proposal

Year 2025, Volume: 22 Issue: 6, 1165 - 1182, 17.12.2025

Mehmet Kuzu

https://doi.org/10.26466/opusjsr.1638632

Abstract

One of the most current social and socio-economic problems in Türkiye is the speculative bubbles that have formed in the housing markets due to the current economic and financial crisis, making it difficult for households to own a house. This study analyzes the dynamics and bursting mechanisms of speculative price bubbles in the Turkish housing market. The GSADF test was applied using monthly data for 2012-2024 to identify bubble periods in the housing market. In the determined bubble periods, robust regression analysis was performed to determine the main factors affecting these price formations. In addition, the Kalman filtering method was used to examine the dynamic coefficients of housing price bubbles that change over time. The findings show that falling interest rates trigger housing price bubbles in Türkiye in an inflationary process; the bursting of the bubbles is associated with increasing domestic and foreign risk premiums, interest rate expectations, and realized interest rate increases. In addition, it investigated how the current housing bubble can burst in a controlled manner through the threshold regression model. The study results reveal that maintaining the interest rate difference between Türkiye and the US within 10% to 17% is critical in preventing financial and economic instabilities regarding housing prices. In addition, it can be argued that the current inflation rate and risk premiums should be managed effectively to ensure stability in housing prices.

Keywords

Housing Market , Speculative Price Bubbles , Threshold Regression

Türkiye'de Spekülatif Konut Fiyat Balonu Dinamikleri ve Patlama Mekanizmaları: Bir Eşik Regresyon Modeli Önerisi

Abstract

Türkiye'nin en güncel toplumsal ve sosyo-ekonomik problemlerinden biri, mevcut ekonomik ve finansal kriz nedeniyle konut piyasalarında oluşan spekülatif balonların hane halkının konut sahibi olmasını zorlaştırmasıdır. Bu çalışma, Türkiye konut piyasasındaki spekülatif fiyat balonlarının dinamiklerini ve patlama mekanizmalarını analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Konut piyasasındaki balon dönemlerini tespit etmek için 2012-2024 dönemine ait aylık veriler kullanılarak GSADF testi uygulanmıştır. Belirlenen balon dönemlerinde, bu fiyat oluşumlarını etkileyen temel faktörleri belirlemek amacıyla robust regresyon analizi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Ayrıca, konut fiyat balonlarının zaman içinde değişen dinamik katsayılarını incelemek için Kalman filtreleme yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, Türkiye’deki konut fiyat balonlarının enflasyonist bir süreçte düşen faiz oranlarıyla tetiklendiğini; balonların patlamasının ise artan yurtiçi ve yabancı risk primleri, faiz oranı beklentileri ve gerçekleşen faiz artışlarıyla ilişkilendirildiğini göstermektedir. Buna ek olarak, eşik regresyon modeli aracılığıyla mevcut konut balonunun kontrollü bir şekilde nasıl patlatılabileceği araştırılmıştır. Çalışmanın sonuçları, Türkiye ile ABD arasındaki faiz oranı farkının %10 ila %17 aralığında korunmasının konut fiyatları açısından finansal ve ekonomik istikrarsızlıkları önlemek açısından kritik olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bunun yanı sıra, konut fiyatlarında istikrar sağlamak amacıyla mevcut enflasyon oranının ve risk primlerinin etkin bir şekilde yönetilmesi gerektiği ileri sürülebilir.

Keywords

Konut Piyasası , Spekülatif Fiyat Balonları , Eşik Regresyon

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