Research Article

Business cycles, renewable energy, and short-term dynamics of carbon emissions: Evidence of asymmetric output gaps across advanced economies

Volume: 23 Number: 2026 August 27, 2026
EN TR

Business cycles, renewable energy, and short-term dynamics of carbon emissions: Evidence of asymmetric output gaps across advanced economies

Abstract

This study examines the short-term dynamics of CO₂ emissions in advanced economies in relation to business cycles, energy intensity, the output gap, and the renewable energy transition. The analysis uses a balanced annual panel dataset covering 1991–2023, including G7 countries, Korea, Australia, Spain, the Netherlands, and Sweden. The study's main objective is to identify short-term emission determinants that are business cycle-sensitive and methodologically consistent, without relying on long-term equilibrium assumptions. Accordingly, because the panel lacks cointegration and shows mixed integration degrees, the analysis used short-term estimators: FE–Driscoll–Kraay, CCE-MG, and AMG. The findings show that per capita income growth and changes in energy intensity are key determinants of short-term emission growth. Increasing the share of renewable energy significantly reduces emissions growth. The output gap effect is asymmetric: expansion periods significantly affect emission dynamics, while contraction periods do not necessarily reduce emissions. The results show that emissions must be managed throughout business cycles and that renewable energy can play a stabilizing role in the short term.

Keywords

Business cycle, output gap, carbon emissions, renewable energy, panel data analysis

Supporting Institution

This research received no external funding.

Ethical Statement

Ethical approval was not required for this study.

References

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APA
Tiryaki, H. N. (2026). Business cycles, renewable energy, and short-term dynamics of carbon emissions: Evidence of asymmetric output gaps across advanced economies. OPUS Journal of Society Research, 23(2026), 1-16. https://doi.org/10.26466/opusjsr.1890564
AMA
1.Tiryaki HN. Business cycles, renewable energy, and short-term dynamics of carbon emissions: Evidence of asymmetric output gaps across advanced economies. OPUS JSR. 2026;23(2026):1-16. doi:10.26466/opusjsr.1890564
Chicago
Tiryaki, Havva Nesrin. 2026. “Business Cycles, Renewable Energy, and Short-Term Dynamics of Carbon Emissions: Evidence of Asymmetric Output Gaps across Advanced Economies”. OPUS Journal of Society Research 23 (2026): 1-16. https://doi.org/10.26466/opusjsr.1890564.
EndNote
Tiryaki HN (August 1, 2026) Business cycles, renewable energy, and short-term dynamics of carbon emissions: Evidence of asymmetric output gaps across advanced economies. OPUS Journal of Society Research 23 2026 1–16.
IEEE
[1]H. N. Tiryaki, “Business cycles, renewable energy, and short-term dynamics of carbon emissions: Evidence of asymmetric output gaps across advanced economies”, OPUS JSR, vol. 23, no. 2026, pp. 1–16, Aug. 2026, doi: 10.26466/opusjsr.1890564.
ISNAD
Tiryaki, Havva Nesrin. “Business Cycles, Renewable Energy, and Short-Term Dynamics of Carbon Emissions: Evidence of Asymmetric Output Gaps across Advanced Economies”. OPUS Journal of Society Research 23/2026 (August 1, 2026): 1-16. https://doi.org/10.26466/opusjsr.1890564.
JAMA
1.Tiryaki HN. Business cycles, renewable energy, and short-term dynamics of carbon emissions: Evidence of asymmetric output gaps across advanced economies. OPUS JSR. 2026;23:1–16.
MLA
Tiryaki, Havva Nesrin. “Business Cycles, Renewable Energy, and Short-Term Dynamics of Carbon Emissions: Evidence of Asymmetric Output Gaps across Advanced Economies”. OPUS Journal of Society Research, vol. 23, no. 2026, Aug. 2026, pp. 1-16, doi:10.26466/opusjsr.1890564.
Vancouver
1.Havva Nesrin Tiryaki. Business cycles, renewable energy, and short-term dynamics of carbon emissions: Evidence of asymmetric output gaps across advanced economies. OPUS JSR. 2026 Aug. 1;23(2026):1-16. doi:10.26466/opusjsr.1890564