Intertwined Policrises: Refugee Inflows, Natural Disasters, Financial Instability, and Housing Market Dynamics in Emerging Economies

Year 2025, Issue: Special Issue: Crisis Entangled – Reimagining the Social in Turbulent Times, 40 - 52, 30.10.2025

Levent Sümer

Abstract

This study investigates the combined socioeconomic impacts of overlapping global crises—including financial instability, ongoing wars, refugee inflows, and natural disasters—on emerging economies, with a focus on Türkiye. Using a mixed-methods approach merging perception surveys and econometric analyses, the paper examines how refugee-induced demographic shifts and the February 2023 earthquakes interacted to reshape housing market dynamics across eleven affected provinces. The findings reveal a double demand shock in Türkiye’s housing market: refugee inflows and disaster displacement simultaneously reduced supply and increased demand, generating significant price surges and spatial fragmentation of housing price cointegration. Furthermore, global financial turbulence and inflation magnified affordability problems, while wars on the northern and southern borders of Türkiye created secondary migration pressures. Results show that while some cities (Adana, Gaziantep) demonstrated resilience due to robust infrastructure and labor mobility, others (Hatay, Kahramanmaraş, Adıyaman) experienced structural breaks and long-term divergence from regional housing price trends. The study contributes to the literature on crisis convergence by situating Türkiye’s experience within the broader polycrisis framework, highlighting how financial, political, social, and environmental shocks interact to exacerbate vulnerabilities in urban systems. Policy recommendations emphasize the need for integrated crisis management, resilient housing finance, inclusive labor policies, regional burden sharing, and scaled social infrastructure investment.

Keywords

Refugees , Housing Market , Earthquake , Financial Crisis , Socioeconomy , Polycrisis

İç İçe Geçmiş Çoklu Krizler: Mülteci Akımları, Doğal Afetler, Finansal İstikrarsızlık ve Gelişmekte Olan Ekonomilerde Konut Piyasası Dinamikleri

Abstract

Bu çalışma, finansal istikrarsızlık, süregiden savaşlar, mülteci akımları ve doğal afetlerin kesişiminden doğan küresel krizlerin yükselen ekonomiler üzerindeki bileşik etkilerini, Türkiye odağında incelemektedir. Algı anketleri ile ekonometrik analizleri birleştiren karma yöntem yaklaşımı, mülteci kaynaklı demografik kaymalar ile Şubat 2023 depremlerinin, etkilenen on bir ilde konut piyasası dinamiklerini nasıl yeniden şekillendirdiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Bulgular, Türkiye konut piyasasında “çifte talep şoku”na işaret etmektedir: mülteci girişi ve afet kaynaklı yerinden edilmeler eşzamanlı olarak arzı daraltıp talebi artırmış; bu da fiyatlarda belirgin sıçramalara ve konut fiyatlarının eşbütünleşmesinde mekânsal parçalanmaya yol açmıştır. Küresel finansal dalgalanma ve enflasyon erişilebilirlik sorunlarını ağırlaştırırken, Türkiye’nin kuzey ve güney sınırlarındaki savaşlar ikincil göç baskılarını artırmıştır. Sonuçlar, bazı kentlerin (Adana, Gaziantep) güçlü altyapı ve işgücü hareketliliği sayesinde dayanıklılık sergilediğini; diğerlerinde (Hatay, Kahramanmaraş, Adıyaman) yapısal kırılmalar ve bölgesel konut fiyatı eğilimlerinden uzun vadeli ayrışmalar yaşandığını göstermektedir. Çalışma, Türkiye deneyimini “polikrizi” çerçevesinde konumlandırarak, finansal, siyasal, toplumsal ve çevresel şokların kent sistemlerindeki kırılganlıkları nasıl bileşik biçimde derinleştirdiğini vurgulamaktadır. Politika önerileri; bütünleşik kriz yönetimi, dayanıklı konut finansmanı, kapsayıcı işgücü politikaları, bölgesel yük paylaşımı ve ölçekli sosyal altyapı yatırımlarının gerekliliğinin altını çizmektedir.

Keywords

Mülteciler , Konut Piyasası , Deprem , Finansal Kriz , Türk Telekom , Sosyoekonomi , Polikriz

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