The Impact of Armed Conflict on Under Five Mortality: Comparison of Syria and Romania with A Difference-in-Differences Method

Year 2025, Issue: Special Issue: Crisis Entangled – Reimagining the Social in Turbulent Times, 150 - 161, 30.10.2025

Haşim Çapar

Abstract

The purpose of the study was to reveal the effect of armed conflicts on the mortality rates of children under five. This research was conducted using a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences (DID) model on a quantitative longitudinal dataset from Syria and Romania between 2000 and 2023, using Jamovi Version 2.6. According to the findings, being in Syria increased the mortality rate of children under five by 8.9 times compared to Romania. During the period of armed conflict, the mortality rate of children under five in Syria was approximately 10 points higher than in Romania. The results showed that both being in Syria and armed conflicts led to higher mortality rates among children under five. This study clearly revealed the devastating effect of armed conflict on children's fundamental right to life, aiming to provide a concrete basis for improving preparedness and response mechanisms for future humanitarian crises. The research findings not only made significant contributions to the academic literature but also provided directly applicable insights for humanitarian aid and international development policies. The study also brought a new perspective to the field by examining the impact of armed conflict on child mortality under five using data from Syria, one of the most significant conflicts in recent years. The research provided evidence not only of direct violence but also of indirect health and nutrition disruptions. This evidence provides empirical evidence that decision-makers and those who regulate the laws of war can use, enabling more accurate policy development

Keywords

Armed conflict , causal inference , under five mortality , Romania , Syria

Ethical Statement

Because the data in this study were obtained from a publicly accessible website and did not involve any intervention on humans or animals, it did not require ethics committee approval. No ethical violations were committed throughout the study.

Supporting Institution

None

Thanks

None

Silahlı Çatışmanın Beş Yaş Altı Çocuk Ölümleri Üzerindeki Etkisi: Farkların Farkı Yöntemiyle Suriye ve Romanya'nın Karşılaştırılması

Abstract

Çalışmanın amacı, silahlı çatışmaların beş yaş altı çocuk ölüm oranları üzerindeki etkisini ortaya koymaktır. 2000-2023 yılları arasında Suriye ve Romanya'ya ait nicel uzunlamasına veriler kullanılarak, Jamovi Sürüm 2.6 ile yarı deneysel olan farkların-farkı (DID) modeli ile bir araştırma yürütülmüştür. Bu araştırmanın bulgularına göre, Suriye'de bulunmak, beş yaş altı çocuk ölüm oranını Romanya'ya kıyasla 8,9 kat artırmaktadır. Silahlı çatışma döneminde, Suriye'deki beş yaş altı çocukların ölüm oranı, Romanya'daki çocuklara göre yaklaşık 10 puan daha yüksekti. Elde edilen sonuçlar, hem Suriye'de olmanın hem de silahlı çatışmaların beş yaş altı çocuklar arasında daha yüksek ölüm oranlarına yol açtığını göstermiştir. Bu çalışma, silahlı çatışmanın çocukların temel yaşam hakkı üzerindeki yıkıcı etkisini net bir şekilde ortaya koyarak, gelecekteki insani krizlere hazırlık ve müdahale mekanizmalarının iyileştirilmesi için somut bir temel sağlamayı amaçlamıştır. Araştırma sonuçları, akademik literatüre önemli katkılarda bulunmanın yanı sıra, insani yardım ve uluslararası kalkınma politikaları için doğrudan uygulanabilir bulgular sunuldu. Ayrıca çalışma, silahlı çatışmanın beş yaş altı çocuk ölümleri üzerindeki etkisini son yıllarda en önemli çatışmalara sahne olmuş Suriye verisi ile incelediğinden alana yeni bir bakış açısı getirmiştir. Araştırma doğrudan şiddeti değil, aynı zamanda dolaylı sağlık ve beslenme aksamalarına yönelik kanıt sunmuştur. Bu kanıtlar, karar vericilerin ve savaş hukukunu düzenleyenlerin kullanabileceği ampirik kanıtlar olması sebebiyle daha doğru politikalar geliştirilmesini sağlamıştır.

Keywords

Silahlı çatışma , nedensel çıkarım , beş yaş altı ölüm oranı , Romanya , Suriye

Ethical Statement

Bu çalışmada veriler kamuya açık bir internet sitesinden elde edildiğinden ve insan veya hayvanlar üzerinde herhangi bir müdahale içermediğinden etik kurul onayı gerektirmemiştir. Çalışma boyunca herhangi bir etik ihlal gerçekleştirilmemiştir.

Supporting Institution

Yok

Thanks

Yok

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