Turkey’s Resolution Process and Its Endeavor to Be A Regional Power: Prospects and Constraints

Year 2023, , 163 - 186, 07.12.2023

Özlem Kayhan Pusane

https://doi.org/10.47932/ortetut.1367917

Abstract

Scholars have so far examined Turkey’s Kurdish resolution/peace process (2013-2015) from various perspectives. While some works have pursued a rational choice approach and focused on the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government’s strategic calculations vis-à-vis the PKK in initiating a peace process and maintaining it until 2015, others have analyzed Turkey’s experience within the framework of the conflict resolution scholarship. Instead, this paper’s starting point is the idea that the 2013-2015 resolution process was not merely a policy to put an end to an internal conflict, but it rather constituted a key aspect of the AKP’s ongoing endeavor to turn Turkey into a regional power. This paper places the 2013-2015 resolution process within the framework of regional and global dynamics and argues that from the mid-2000s onwards, the AKP government’s efforts to put an end to the PKK terrorism and resolve the Kurdish question in Turkey reflected the policy of a middle-power country, i.e. Turkey, to increase its power and influence in the region instead of a mere domestic peace process. Thus, the end of the resolution process in 2015 constrained Turkey’s potential achievements in the Middle East and beyond.

Keywords

Turkey, Kurdish question, resolution process, KRG, Syrian civil war

عملية الحل في تركيا وسعيها إلى أن تكون قوة إقليمية:الآفاق والقيود

Abstract

Scholars have so far examined Turkey’s Kurdish resolution/peace process (2013-2015) from various perspectives. While some works have pursued a rational choice approach and focused on the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government’s strategic calculations vis-à-vis the PKK in initiating a peace process and maintaining it until 2015, others have analyzed Turkey’s experience within the framework of the conflict resolution scholarship. Instead, this paper’s starting point is the idea that the 2013-2015 resolution process was not merely a policy to put an end to an internal conflict, but it rather constituted a key aspect of the AKP’s ongoing endeavor to turn Turkey into a regional power. This paper places the 2013-2015 resolution process within the framework of regional and global dynamics and argues that from the mid-2000s onwards, the AKP government’s efforts to put an end to the PKK terrorism and resolve the Kurdish question in Turkey reflected the policy of a middle-power country, i.e. Turkey, to increase its power and influence in the region instead of a mere domestic peace process. Thus, the end of the resolution process in 2015 constrained Turkey’s potential achievements in the Middle East and beyond.

Keywords

Turkey, Kurdish question, resolution process, KRG, Syrian civil war

Türkiye’nin Çözüm Süreci ve Bölgesel Güç Olma Çabaları: Beklentiler ve Kısıtlar

Abstract

Scholars have so far examined Turkey’s Kurdish resolution/peace process (2013-2015) from various perspectives. While some works have pursued a rational choice approach and focused on the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government’s strategic calculations vis-à-vis the PKK in initiating a peace process and maintaining it until 2015, others have analyzed Turkey’s experience within the framework of the conflict resolution scholarship. Instead, this paper’s starting point is the idea that the 2013-2015 resolution process was not merely a policy to put an end to an internal conflict, but it rather constituted a key aspect of the AKP’s ongoing endeavor to turn Turkey into a regional power. This paper places the 2013-2015 resolution process within the framework of regional and global dynamics and argues that from the mid-2000s onwards, the AKP government’s efforts to put an end to the PKK terrorism and resolve the Kurdish question in Turkey reflected the policy of a middle-power country, i.e. Turkey, to increase its power and influence in the region instead of a mere domestic peace process. Thus, the end of the resolution process in 2015 constrained Turkey’s potential achievements in the Middle East and beyond.

Keywords

Türkiye, Kürt sorunu, çözüm süreci, IKBY, Suriye iç savaşı

References

• Akgül, Musa and Çiğdem Görgün Akgül. “Beyond Mutually Hurting Stalemate: Why Did the Peace Process in Turkey (2009–2015) Fail?” Turkish Studies 24, no. 1 (2023): 1-28.
• Al Khoury, Laure, Ammar Karim, and Kamal Taha. “Iraq to Resume Kurdish Oil Exports to Turkey Saturday: Statement.” Al-Monitor, 11 May 2023, https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/05/iraq-resume-kurdish- oil-exports-turkey-saturday-statement (accessed June 14, 2023).
• Alçı, Nagehan (2013). An atmosphere of peace, not of farewell. Al-Monitor, November 19, https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2013/11/erdogan-kurds- peace-visit-diyarbakir-barzani-public-appeal.html (accessed June 16, 2023).
• Anadolu Ajansı (2013). Salih Müslim’in Ziyareti Önceden Planlanmıştı. Anadolu Ajansı, July 30, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/politika/salih-muslimin- ziyareti-onceden-planlanmisti/229000 (accessed June 20, 2023).
• Aras, Bülent. “The Davutoğlu Era in Turkish Foreign Policy,” Insight Turkey 11, no. 3 (2009): 127-142.
• Aydıntaşbaş, Aslı (2014). Kobani’ye Askeri Koridor Teklifi. Milliyet, October 9, http://www.milliyet.com.tr/kobani-ye-askeri-koridor-teklifi/ siyaset/ydetay/1951885/default.htm (accessed June 20, 2023).
• Bache Fidan, Christina (2016). Turkish Business in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq”. Turkish Policy Quarterly (Winter), 117-126.
• Barkey, Henri J. “On the KRG, the Turkish-Kurdish Peace Process, and the Future of the Kurds,” Global Turkey in Europe, Woodrow Wilson Center, Working Paper no. 12 (July 2015): 4, https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/192714/ gte_wp_12.pdf (accessed 23 September 2023).
• Barkey, Henri J. “Turkey’s New Engagement in Iraq: Embracing Iraqi Kurdistan,” United Stated Institute of Peace, Special Report, no. 237, 10 May 2010, https://carnegieendowment.org/2010/05/10/turkey-s-new-engagement- in-iraq-embracing-iraqi-kurdistan-pub-40773 (accessed 22 September 2023).
• Baser, Bahar and Alpaslan Ozerdem, “Conflict Transformation and Asymmetric Conflicts: A Critique of the Failed Turkish-Kurdish Peace Process.” Terrorism and Political Violence 33, no. 8 (2021): 1775-1796.
• “Başbakanın Diyarbakır Konuşması,” Sabah, 12 August 2005, http://www. sabah.com.tr/Siyaset/Dosyalar/2005/08/12/dosya_basbakanin_diyarbakir_ konusmasi (accessed 29 May 2023). BBC News Türkçe (2014). FT: Kobani Kürtlerin Milliyetçi Heveslerini Diriltti. BBC News Türkçe, October 24, https://www.bbc.com/turkce/ haberler/2014/10/141024_ft_kurtler (accessed June, 20, 2023).
• Benli Altunışık, Meliha and Lenore G. Martin. “Making Sense of Turkish Foreign Policy in the Middle East under AKP,” Turkish Studies 12, no. 4 (2011): 569-587.
• Benli Altunışık, Meliha (2009). Worldviews and Turkish Foreign Policy in the Middle East. New Perspectives on Turkey, 40, 169-192.
• Bozarslan, Mahmut (2015). Turkey Drawn into Vortex of Violence. Al- Monitor, July 26, https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/07/ turkey-suruc-bombing-violence.html (accessed June 20, 2023).
• Cagaptay, Soner, Christina Bache Fidan, Ege Cansu Sacikara. “Turkey and the KRG: An Undeclared Economic Commonwealth.” PolicyWatch 2387, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 16 March 2015, https:// www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/turkey-and-krg-undeclared- economic-commonwealth (accessed 23 September 2023).
• Cumhuriyet. Kürtçe bizim Zenginliğimiz. Cumhuriyet, 14April 2011, https:// www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/haber/kurtce-bizim-bir-zenginligimiz-239044 (accessed June 17, 2023).
• Çamlıbel, Cansu (2014). PYD Lideri Salih Müslim: Ankara’nın Şam’la Savaşında Asker Olmayız. Hürriyet, October 13, http://www.hurriyet. com.tr/dunya/pyd-lideri-salih-muslim-ankaranin-samla-savasinda-asker- olmayiz-27373368 (accessed June 20, 2023).
• Çandar, Cengiz. Turkey’s Mission Impossible: War and Peace with the Kurds. Lanham: Lexington Books, 2020. Daloğlu, Tülin. Davutoğlu Invokes Ottomanism as a New Order for Mideast. Al-Monitor. 10 March 2013, https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2013/03/ turkey-davutologu-ottoman-new-order-mideast.html (accessed May 29, 2023).
• Davutoğlu, Ahmet. “Davutoğlu’ndan Şok Açıklamalar,” Yeniçağ, 22 January 2012, https://www.yenicaggazetesi.com.tr/davutoglundan-sok- aciklamalar-62378h.htm (accessed 22 September 2023).
• Davutoğlu, Ahmet. “Turkey’s Foreign Policy Vision: An Assessment of 2007,” Insight Turkey 10, no. 1 (2008): 77-96. Democratic Progress Institute. “Turkey’s Kurdish Conflict: An Assessment of the Current Process.” Democratic Progress Institute (November 2013).
• Dilek, Esra and Basar Baysal. “Peace Negotiation Process and Outcome: Considering Colombia and Turkey in Comparative Perspective,” Peacebuilding 10, no. 4 (2022): 449-469.
• Eralp, Doga Ulas, ed. Turkey as a Mediator: Stories of Success and Faiure. Lanham: Lexington Books, 2016.
• Erdoğan, Recep Tayyip (2015). President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Opening Speech for the 25th term, second legislative year of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey, October 1, 2015, https://www5.tbmm.gov.tr//develop/ owa/td_v2.goruntule?sayfa_no_ilk=122&sayfa_no_son=133&sayfa_ no=125&v_meclis=1&v_donem=25&v_yasama_yili=&v_cilt=2&v_ birlesim=001 (accessed June 16, 2023). “Maliye Bakanı Erbil’de Açılışta Sürpriz Yaptı.” Haber7, 14 April 2011, https://ekonomi.haber7.com/ekonomi/haber/733002-maliye-bakani-erbilde-acilista-surpriz-yapti (accessed June 17, 2023).
• Gunter, Michael. “The Turkish-Kurdish Peace Process,” Georgetown Journal of International Affairs 14, no. 1 (Winter/Spring 2013): 101-111. Hürriyet (2012). Başbakan Erdoğan’ın Konuşmasının Tam Metni. Hürriyet, July 26, http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/gundem/basbakan-erdoganin- konusmasinin-tam-metni-21069980 (accessed June 20, 2023).
• Kayhan Pusane, Özlem. “Turkey’s Changing Relations with the Iraqi Kurdish Regional Government.” Middle East Review of International Studies 20, no. 2 (2016): 20-28.
• Kayhan Pusane, Özlem. “Turkey’s Kurdish Opening: Long-Awaited Achievements and Failed Expectations.” Turkish Studies 15, no. 1 (2014): 81-99.
• Larrabee, F. Stephen. “Turkey’s New Kurdish Opening.” Survival 55, no. 5 (2013): 133-146.
• Letsch, Constanze (2014). Kurdish Peshmerga Forces Arrive in Kobani to Bolster Fight Against ISIS. The Guardian, November 1, https://www. theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/01/kurdish-peshmerga-kobani-isis-syria (accessed June 20, 2023).
• Milliyet (2013). Aynı Sofradalar. Milliyet, August 1, https://www.milliyet. com.tr/gundem/ayni-sofradalar-1744704 (accessed June 20, 2023).
• Milliyet (2012). Davutoğlu’ndan PYD’ye ’Ayar’. Milliyet, August 2, http://www.milliyet.com.tr/davutoglu-ndan-pyd-ye--ayar--gundem-1575162/ (accessed June 20, 2023).
• Öniş, Ziya (2009). Beyond the 2001 Financial Crisis: The Political Economy of the New Phase of Neo-Liberal Restructuring in Turkey. Review of International Political Economy, 16 (3), 409-432. Öniş, Ziya (2012). Turkey and the Arab Spring: Between Ethics and Self- Interest. Insight Turkey, 14 (3), 45-63. Özkan, Behlül. “Turkey, Davutoğlu, and the Idea of Pan-Islamism,” Survival 56, no. 4 (2014): 119-140.
• Özpek, Burak Bilgehan. The Peace Process between Turkey and the Kurds: Anatomy of a Failure. New York: Routledge, 2018.
• Phillips, Christopher (2012). Into the Quagmire: Turkey’s Frustrated Syria Policy. Middle East and North Africa Programme, Briefing Paper, 04, https:// www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Middle%20 East/1212bp_phillips.pdf (accessed June 19, 2023).
• Savran, Arin. “The Peace Process between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, 2009-2015.” Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies 22, no. 6 (2020): 777-792.
• Selcen, Aydın (2017). Erbil Başkonsolosluğu Nasıl Açıldı? Gazete Duvar, March 26, https://www.gazeteduvar.com.tr/yazarlar/2017/03/26/erbil- baskonsoloslugu-nasil-acildi (accessed June 14, 2023).
• Sözcü (2013). Diyarbakır’da Barzani-Erdoğan Mitingi. Sözcü, November 16, https://www.sozcu.com.tr/2013/genel/diyarbakirda-barzani-erdogan- mitingi-408071/ (accessed June 1, 2023). Süleymanoğlu-Kürüm, Rahime. “A New Sector in Turkish Foreign Policy: Mediation,”Boğaziçi Journal: Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies 25, no. 2 (2011): 189-213.
• T24 (2009). Gül: Kürt Sorununda Iyi Şeyler Olacak. T24, March 10, https:// t24.com.tr/haber/gul-kurt-sorununda-iyi-seyler-olacak,33742 (accessed June 1, 2023).
• Taşpınar, Ömer and Gönül Tol (2014). Turkey and the Kurds: From Predicament to Opportunity. US-Europe Analysis Series, 54, January 22, Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings, https://www.brookings. edu/research/turkey-and-the-kurds-from-predicament-to-opportunity/ (accessed June 16, 2023).
• Taştekin, Fehim (2016). Why Turkey issued arrest Warrant for this Kurdish leader. Al-Monitor, November 27, http://www.almonitor.com/pulse/ originals/2016/11/turkey-syria-issue-arrest-warrant-for-pyd-chief-muslim. html (accessed June 20, 2023).
• Taylor, Alan (2014). The Battle for Kobani. The Atlantic, October 8, https:// www.theatlantic.com/photo/2014/10/the-battle-for-kobani/100828/ (accessed June 20, 2023).
• Tezcür, Güneş Murat. “Prospects for Resolution of the Kurdish Question: A Realist Perspective.” Insight Turkey 15, no. 2 (January 2013): 69-84.
• “Who Made the Decision to Withdraw U.S. Troops from Iraq.” The Washington Post, 27 September 2016, https://www.washingtonpost. com/politics/2016/live-updates/general-election/real-time-fact-checking- and-analysis-of-the-first-presidential-debate/who-made-the-decision-to- withdraw-u-s-troops-from-iraq/ (accessed June 21, 2023).
• Tol, Gönül. Turkey’s KRG energy Partnership. Foreign Policy, 29 January 2013, https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/01/29/turkeys-krg-energy-partnership/ (accessed June 12, 2023).
• “Turkey,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, last updated 1 February 2013, https://www.eia.gov/international/overview/country/TUR accessed.
• Tür,Özlem(2010).Turkish-SyrianRelations:WhereAreWeGoing?UNISCI Discussion Papers, 23, https://www.redalyc.org/pdf/767/76715004010.pdf (accessed June 17, 2023).
• Ünal, Mustafa Coşar. “Is It Ripe Yet? Resolving Turkey’s 30 Years of Conflict with the PKK,” Turkish Studies 17, no. 1 (2016): 91-125.