UNPREDICTABLE POWER BROKER: RUSSIA’S ROLE IN IRAN’S NUCLEAR CAPABILITY DEVELOPMENT

Year 2015, Volume: 6 Issue: 2, 112 - 134, 01.01.2015

Muhammet Fatih Özkan Gürol Baba

Abstract

One of the major strains of the new millennium international politics has been happening between Iran and the West. Iran’s efforts to build up its nuclear capability with Russia’s help have been keeping the West on its toes. Neither the West nor Russia would really want, and therefore always concerned about, Iran to have a nuclear competence on a military grade. Even though Iran declares the opposite, the West is never sure about the possibility that Iran will achieve this grade one day. Since Iran has been receiving nuclear technology, together with many other commodities, from Russia, Moscow becomes almost a perfect candidate to be a mediator in this dispute. This study investigates Russian diplomacy on Iranian nuclear build up and its problematic consequences within the framework mediation as a strategy to ease disputes. The time frame covers the developments from 2002 to 2014. Via this investigation this research argues that mediation is not as suave as it seems but more of a means for a Great Power, like Russia, to be utilized to influence or almost dominate an international dispute, via carving out a special position and acting as an “unpredictable power broker”, rather than solving it

Keywords

Russia, Iran, mediation, nuclear power

ÖNGÖRÜLEMEYEN GÜÇ SİMSARI: İRAN’IN NÜKLEER KAPASİTE GELİŞTİRMESİNDE RUSYA’NIN ROLÜ

Abstract

Yeni milenyum uluslararası ilişkilerinin en önemli gerilimlerinden biri şüphesiz ki İran ile Batılı devletler arasında uzun bir süredir süre gelen gerilimdir. Bu gerilimin en temel sebebi İran’ın, Rusya yardımıyla geliştirmeye başladığı nükleer kabiliyetidir. Batı da Rusya da, İran’ın bu kabiliyetini askeri nitelikli bir hale dönüştürmesini istememekte ve bundan ciddi bir endişe duymaktadırlar. İran’ın nükleer çabalarını bu düzeyde bir uluslararası soruna dönüştüren temel sebep de bu endişedir. Her ne kadar İran bunun aksini defalarca ifade etse de, özellikle Batı, bir gün gelip İran’ın askeri nitelikli nükleer bir güce kavuşup kavuşamayacağından emin olamamaktadır. İran’ın nükleer enerji teknolojisini, diğer pek çok edinimlerine ek olarak, Rusya’dan alıyor olması da Rusya’yı bu düzlemde en belirleyici arabulucu konumuna getirmektedir. Bu çalışma, Rus diplomasisini İran’ın nükleer kabiliyet elde etmesi çerçevesinde ve özellikle de arabuluculuk kavramı bağlamında değerlendirmektedir. Çalışma 2002-2014 yılları arasındaki gelişmeleri ele almaktadır. Bu değerlendirme aracılığı ile çalışma, uluslararası uyuşmazlıklarda bir çözüm yöntemi olarak kullanılan arabuluculuğun esasında tam anlamıyla iyi niyetli bir diplomatik yaklaşım olmadığını, Rusya gibi, büyük güçler tarafından söz konusu uyuşmazlığı çözmek yerine tarafları etkileyerek sorunu tahakküm etmek ve bu şekilde kendisine özel bir mevki edinmek için kullanılan bir araç olduğunu iddia etmektedir

Keywords

Rusya, İran, arabuluculuk, nükleer güç

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