AUTHORITARIAN RESILIENCE AND THE ARAB UPRISING: SYRIA IN COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE

Year 2015, Volume: 7 Issue: 1, 16 - 36, 01.07.2015

Raymond Hınnebusch

Abstract

This article examines the roots and tangent of the Syrian Uprising in the light of the literature on authoritarian resilience and upgrading. The roots of the Uprising are located in the vulnerabilities of Syria’s authoritarian populist state-building formula. Its post-populist transition under Bashar al-Asad, although meant to “fix” these vulnerabilities, generated powerful mass grievances; authoritarian upgrading, although meant to compensate for these negative side effects, had also its own costs. The special features of the Syrian Uprising are explained by systematically comparing levels of grievances and opportunity structure for anti-regime mobilization there to the Egyptian and Libyan cases. The distinct tangent of the Syrian Uprising--stalemate and protracted conflict--can, in part, be explained by the Syrian regime’s particular authoritarian upgrading tangent

Keywords

Syria, Syrian Uprising, authoritarian upgrading, Post-populist authoritarianism, Bashar al-Asad

OTORİTER DİRENÇ VE ARAB BAHARI: KARŞILAŞTIRMALI PERSPEKTİFTE SURİYE

Abstract

Bu makale, otoriter direnç ve uyarlama literatürü ışığında Suriye İsyanı’nın kökenlerini ve farklılığını incelemektedir. İsyanın kökenleri, Suriye’nin otoriter popülist devlet-inşa formülünün kırılganlığına uzanmaktadır. Beşar Esad döneminde Suriye’nin post-popülist dönüşümü, söz konusu kırılganlıkların “onarılması” anlamına gelse de, büyük çaplı toplumsal hoşnutsuzluklara neden oldu; “otoriter uyarlama”, tüm bu olumsuz yan etkilerin zararını gidermek anlamına gelse de, aslında kendi maliyetleri olan bir süreç. Suriye İsyanı’nın kendine has özellikleri, Mısır ve Libya örnekleriyle hoşnutsuzluk düzeyleri ve rejim-karşıtı mobilizasyon için fırsat yapıları üzerinden sistematik bir biçimde karşılaştırarak incelemektedir. Suriye İsyanı’nın belirgin farklılığı --çıkmaz ve uzun süreli çatışma-- bir ölçüde Suriye rejiminin otoriter uyarlamanın farklılığıyla açıklanabilir

Keywords

Suriye, Suriye İsyanı, otoriter uyarlama, post-popülist otoriterlik, Beşar Esad

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