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العوامل المحددة لتدفق اللاجئين السوريين: تحليل اقتصادي قياسي

Year 2021, Volume: 13 Issue: 1, 71 - 90, 30.01.2021
https://doi.org/10.47932/ortetut.698825

Abstract

الربيع العربي هو اسم أطلق على المرحلة التي بدأت مع انتشار الحراك الشعبي ضد تدهور الأوضاع
الاقتصادية في تونس، إلى دول المنطقة. وخلال فترة بسيطة، امتدت الآثار الاجتماعية والسياسية
والاقتصادية لهذه المرحلة إلى منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا، لاسيما مصر وليبيا واليمن
وسوريا. ولا تزال آثار هذا التحول الكبير مستمرة حتى اليوم في معظم بلدان الشرق الأوسط وشمال
إفريقيا. ويمكن القول إن سوريا هي البلد الأكثر تضررا من الربيع العربي بين دول المنطقة. انعكاس
المرحلة على سوريا تحوّل إلى مأساة إنسانية متعددة الأبعاد، ما أدى إلى ظهور أكبر مشكلة هجرة
داخلية وخارجية في التاريخ الحديث في العالم. وبحسب بيانات المفوضية السامية للأمم المتحدة لشؤون
اللاجئين، اضطر نحو 6 ملايين لاجئ سوري إلى الهجرة إلى دول الجوار منذ بداية الحرب الأهلية
في سوريا. وكانت معظم الهجرة تقريبا، تجاه تركيا والأردن ولبنان والعراق ومصر واليمن. وفي
هذا السياق، تهدف هذه الدراسة إلى توضيح العوامل الاقتصادية القياسية المحددة لتدفق اللاجئين
2017 . الدراسة تعمل على التوقع بشكل فلسفي تجريبي للنماذج - السوريين في الفترة بين عامي 2004
الاقتصادية التي تم تطويرها، كما يتم تقييم النتائج من منظور الاقتصاد السياسي. وتم توقع النماذج
2017 للدول الست في - الفلسفية التجريبية من خلال استخدام بيانات تعود للفترة بين عامي 2004
منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا. إن مساهمة الدراسة في الأدبيات الفلسفية التجريبية، هي قياس
تأثير فترة العيش المتوقعة عند الولادة ومعدل التضخم على تدفق اللاجئين. وبالمقابل، لا يمكن ضم
جميع البلدان التي يحدث فيها تدفق المهاجرين السوريين إلى النموذج بسبب نقص البيانات. ووفقا للنتائج
التي تم الحصول عليها نتيجة للتحليل، تم العثور على علاقة إيجابية بين عدد اللاجئين ومعدل النمو،
والعمر المتوقع عند الولادة ومعدل المشاركة في القوى العاملة. فيما تم الحصول على علاقة سلبية بين
معدل التضخم، والناتج المحلي الإجمالي ودخل الفرد الواحد.

References

  • Alix-Garcia, Jennifer ve David Saah. "The effect of refugee inflows on host communities: Evidence from Tanzania." The World Bank Economic Review, Vol.24, No.1 (2010): pp.148–170.
  • Balkan, Binnur ve Semih Tumen. "Immigration and Prices: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Syrian Refugees in Turkey", Journal of Population Economics, No.29 (2016): s. 657-686.
  • Carpio, Ximena V. Del ve Mathis Wagner. "Te Impact of Syrian Refugees on the Turkish Labor Market", World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper 7402, August 2015.
  • Ceritoglu, Evren. v.d., "The Impact of Syrian Refugees on Natives' Labor Market Outcomes in Turkey: Evidence from a Quasi-Experimental Design" IZA Discussion Papers 9348, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), 2015.
  • Verter, Nahanga ve Samuel Darkwah. "Determinants of International Migration: The Nigerian Experience", 2014, Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 62(34), 2014, s.321-327.
  • David, Anda. v.d., "The economics of the Syrian refugee crisis in neighboring countries. The case of Lebanon", Working Papers DT/2018/14, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation), 2018.
  • Kabaklarlı, Esra. "Mülteci Akımını Belirleyen Faktörlerin Makro Ekonomik Panel Veri Analizi (Ortadoğu ve Türkiye)", Aksaray Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt.8, No.2, (2016):s.56-60
  • Kancs, D’Artis ve Patrizio Lecca. "Long-term Social, Economic and Fiscal Effects of Immigration into the EU: The Role of the Integration Policy", JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance, Cilt.2017, No.4, (2017)
  • Khoudour, David ve Lisa Andersson. "Assessing the contribution of refugees to the development of their host countries" Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), (2017).
  • Son, Liana ve Georgiana Noja Graţiela. "A macroeconometric panel data analysis of the shaping factors of labour emigration within the European Union" Theoretical and Applied Economics, Vol.XVIII (2012), No.11(576) (2012): s.15-30. " Sprenger, Ekaterina. "The determinants of international migration in the European Union: An empirical analysis", IOS Working Papers, No. 325 (2013).
  • Undata, http://data.un.org/, Erişim: 10.03.2019.
  • The UN Refugee Agency, UNHCR, https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/113, Erişim: 10.03.2019.
  • World Bank, https://data.worldbank.org/, Erişim: 10.03.2019.
  • World Inequality Report 2018, https://wir2018.wid.world/, Erişim: 16.03.2019.

Factors Determining The Syrian Refugee Flow: An Econometric Analysis

Year 2021, Volume: 13 Issue: 1, 71 - 90, 30.01.2021
https://doi.org/10.47932/ortetut.698825

Abstract

The Arab Spring is the process name that started with the spread of the popular movement to the countries of the region against the worsening economic conditions
in Tunisia. The social, political and economic impacts of this process spread to the Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries, especially Egypt, Libya,
Yemen and Syria. The effects of this major transformation continue to be seen in most MENA countries today. It can be said that Syria is the country most affected by the
Arab Spring among the countries in the region. The process in Syria has turned into a human tragedy with many dimensions and has become the biggest internal and external
migration problem in recent history in the world. According to the data of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), approximately 6 million
Syrian refugees have had to migrate to neighboring countries since the beginning of the civil war in Syria. Mostly Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq, Egypt and Yemen are the
places where they have migrated. In this context, the purpose of this study is to reveal the macroeconomic factors that determined the Syrian refugee flow between 2004-
2017. The economic models developed in the study are predicted empirically and the findings are evaluated from a political economy perspective. Empirical models are
estimated using data for the years 2004-2017 for the 6 MENA countries. The contribution of the study to the empirical literature is to measure the effect of life expectancy
at birth and inflation rate on refugee flow. On the other hand, notall of the countries where Syrian migrant flow occurs could be included in the model due to the lack of
data. According to the findings obtained as a result of empirical analysis, a positive relationship was found between the number of refugees and growth rate, life expectancy
at birth and labor force participation rate, and a negative relationship was found between inflation rate, gross domestic product and per capita income.

References

  • Alix-Garcia, Jennifer ve David Saah. "The effect of refugee inflows on host communities: Evidence from Tanzania." The World Bank Economic Review, Vol.24, No.1 (2010): pp.148–170.
  • Balkan, Binnur ve Semih Tumen. "Immigration and Prices: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Syrian Refugees in Turkey", Journal of Population Economics, No.29 (2016): s. 657-686.
  • Carpio, Ximena V. Del ve Mathis Wagner. "Te Impact of Syrian Refugees on the Turkish Labor Market", World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper 7402, August 2015.
  • Ceritoglu, Evren. v.d., "The Impact of Syrian Refugees on Natives' Labor Market Outcomes in Turkey: Evidence from a Quasi-Experimental Design" IZA Discussion Papers 9348, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), 2015.
  • Verter, Nahanga ve Samuel Darkwah. "Determinants of International Migration: The Nigerian Experience", 2014, Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 62(34), 2014, s.321-327.
  • David, Anda. v.d., "The economics of the Syrian refugee crisis in neighboring countries. The case of Lebanon", Working Papers DT/2018/14, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation), 2018.
  • Kabaklarlı, Esra. "Mülteci Akımını Belirleyen Faktörlerin Makro Ekonomik Panel Veri Analizi (Ortadoğu ve Türkiye)", Aksaray Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt.8, No.2, (2016):s.56-60
  • Kancs, D’Artis ve Patrizio Lecca. "Long-term Social, Economic and Fiscal Effects of Immigration into the EU: The Role of the Integration Policy", JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance, Cilt.2017, No.4, (2017)
  • Khoudour, David ve Lisa Andersson. "Assessing the contribution of refugees to the development of their host countries" Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), (2017).
  • Son, Liana ve Georgiana Noja Graţiela. "A macroeconometric panel data analysis of the shaping factors of labour emigration within the European Union" Theoretical and Applied Economics, Vol.XVIII (2012), No.11(576) (2012): s.15-30. " Sprenger, Ekaterina. "The determinants of international migration in the European Union: An empirical analysis", IOS Working Papers, No. 325 (2013).
  • Undata, http://data.un.org/, Erişim: 10.03.2019.
  • The UN Refugee Agency, UNHCR, https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/113, Erişim: 10.03.2019.
  • World Bank, https://data.worldbank.org/, Erişim: 10.03.2019.
  • World Inequality Report 2018, https://wir2018.wid.world/, Erişim: 16.03.2019.

Suriyeli Mülteci Akımını Belirleyen Faktörler: Ekonometrik Bir Analiz

Year 2021, Volume: 13 Issue: 1, 71 - 90, 30.01.2021
https://doi.org/10.47932/ortetut.698825

Abstract

Arap Baharı, Tunus’ta giderek kötüleşen ekonomik koşullara karşı gelişen halk hareketinin bölge ülkelerine yayılması ile başlayan sürece verilen addır. Bu sürecin içerdiği sosyal, politik ve ekonomik etkiler kısa bir süre içinde Mısır, Libya, Yemen ve Suriye başta olmak üzere Ortadoğu ve Kuzey Afrika (OKA) coğrafyasına yayılmıştır. Bu büyük dönüşümün etkileri bugün OKA ülkelerinin çoğunda görülmeye devam etmektedir. Arap Baharı’nın bölge ülkeleri içerisinde en çok etkilediği ülkenin Suriye olduğu söylenebilir. Sürecin Suriye’ye yansıması birçok boyutu ile bir insanlık dramına dönüşerek, dünyada yakın tarihin en büyük iç ve dış göç sorununu ortaya çıkarmıştır. Birleşmiş Milletler Mülteciler Yüksek Komiserliği (BMMYK) verilerine göre, Suriye’de iç savaşın başlamasından bugüne kadar yaklaşık 6 milyon Suriyeli mülteci komşu ülkelere göç etmek zorunda kalmıştır. Göçün tamamına yakını Türkiye, Ürdün, Lübnan, Irak, Mısır ve Yemen’e yönelik olmuştur. Bu çerçevede bu çalışmanın amacı, 2004-2017 yılları arasında Suriyeli mülteci akımını belirleyen makroekonomik faktörleri ortaya koymaktır. Çalışmada geliştirilen ekonomik modeller ampirik olarak tahmin edilmekte ve bulgular ekonomi politik bir perspektiften değerlendirilmektedir. Ampirik modeller, 6 OKA ülkesi için 2004-2017 yıllarına ait veriler kullanılarak tahmin edilmektedir. Çalışmanın ampirik literatüre katkısı, doğumda beklenilen yaşam süresi ve enflasyon oranının mülteci akımına etkisinin ölçülmesidir. Buna karşın, Suriyeli göçmen akımının gerçekleştiği ülkelerin tamamı veri yokluğu nedeni ile modele dâhil edilememiştir. Analiz sonucunda elde edilen bulgulara göre mülteci sayısı ile büyüme oranı, doğumda beklenilen yaşam süresi ve iş gücüne katılım oranı arasında pozitif bir ilişki bulunmuşken; enflasyon oranı, gayri safi yurt içi hâsıla ve kişi başına gelir arasında ise negatif ilişki söz konusudur.

References

  • Alix-Garcia, Jennifer ve David Saah. "The effect of refugee inflows on host communities: Evidence from Tanzania." The World Bank Economic Review, Vol.24, No.1 (2010): pp.148–170.
  • Balkan, Binnur ve Semih Tumen. "Immigration and Prices: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Syrian Refugees in Turkey", Journal of Population Economics, No.29 (2016): s. 657-686.
  • Carpio, Ximena V. Del ve Mathis Wagner. "Te Impact of Syrian Refugees on the Turkish Labor Market", World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper 7402, August 2015.
  • Ceritoglu, Evren. v.d., "The Impact of Syrian Refugees on Natives' Labor Market Outcomes in Turkey: Evidence from a Quasi-Experimental Design" IZA Discussion Papers 9348, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), 2015.
  • Verter, Nahanga ve Samuel Darkwah. "Determinants of International Migration: The Nigerian Experience", 2014, Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 62(34), 2014, s.321-327.
  • David, Anda. v.d., "The economics of the Syrian refugee crisis in neighboring countries. The case of Lebanon", Working Papers DT/2018/14, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation), 2018.
  • Kabaklarlı, Esra. "Mülteci Akımını Belirleyen Faktörlerin Makro Ekonomik Panel Veri Analizi (Ortadoğu ve Türkiye)", Aksaray Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt.8, No.2, (2016):s.56-60
  • Kancs, D’Artis ve Patrizio Lecca. "Long-term Social, Economic and Fiscal Effects of Immigration into the EU: The Role of the Integration Policy", JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance, Cilt.2017, No.4, (2017)
  • Khoudour, David ve Lisa Andersson. "Assessing the contribution of refugees to the development of their host countries" Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), (2017).
  • Son, Liana ve Georgiana Noja Graţiela. "A macroeconometric panel data analysis of the shaping factors of labour emigration within the European Union" Theoretical and Applied Economics, Vol.XVIII (2012), No.11(576) (2012): s.15-30. " Sprenger, Ekaterina. "The determinants of international migration in the European Union: An empirical analysis", IOS Working Papers, No. 325 (2013).
  • Undata, http://data.un.org/, Erişim: 10.03.2019.
  • The UN Refugee Agency, UNHCR, https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/113, Erişim: 10.03.2019.
  • World Bank, https://data.worldbank.org/, Erişim: 10.03.2019.
  • World Inequality Report 2018, https://wir2018.wid.world/, Erişim: 16.03.2019.
There are 14 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Middle East Studies
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Şerife Akıncı 0000-0002-2505-1985

Publication Date January 30, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021 Volume: 13 Issue: 1

Cite

Chicago Akıncı, Şerife. “Suriyeli Mülteci Akımını Belirleyen Faktörler: Ekonometrik Bir Analiz”. Ortadoğu Etütleri 13, no. 1 (January 2021): 71-90. https://doi.org/10.47932/ortetut.698825.

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