Afrika Atlantik Gaz Boru Hattı ve Trans-Sahra Gaz Boru Hattı: Kuzey Afrika, Batı Afrika ve Sahel Üçgeninde Jeopolitik Rekabet

Year 2025, Volume: 17 Issue: 1, 67 - 98, 31.10.2025

Fatih Dağ

https://doi.org/10.47932/ortetut.1745945

Abstract

Bu makale, Afrika’nın enerji jeopolitiğinde gündemde olan iki gaz boru hattı projesinin -Afrika Atlantik Gaz Boru Hattı (Nijerya-Fas-Avrupa) ve Trans-Sahra Gaz Boru Hattı (Nijerya-Cezayir-Avrupa)- bölgesel ve uluslararası siyasi etkilerini, sadece ekonomi veya enerji transferi üzerinden değil jeopolitik araçlar olarak da karşılaştırmaktadır. Çalışma, iki boru hattı projesinin Batı Afrika, Sahel ve Kuzey Afrika’daki jeopolitik rekabeti, Nijerya’nın enerji-politik stratejisindeki konumlarını ve Avrupa’nın enerji güvenliğindeki önemlerini nasıl şekillendirdiğini sorunsallaştırmaktadır. Jeopolitik rekabet, bölgesel güç dengesi ve enerji güvenliği eksenleri üzerinden teorik ve ampirik analiz yürütmektedir. Mackinder’in Kalpgah Teorisi ile Mearsheimer’ın saldırgan neorealizm yaklaşımı, bu projelerin uluslararası ilişkiler bağlamındaki etkilerini yorumlamak için temel çerçeveler oluşturmaktadır. Enerji altyapı projelerinin iş birliği veya çatışma ortamı yaratma potansiyeline dair değerlendirmede ise Keohane ve Nye’ın kompleks karşılıklı bağımlılık yaklaşımı kullanılmaktadır. Yergin ve Vivoda’nın görüşleriyle desteklenen enerji güvenliği paradigması da Avrupa Birliği (AB) bağlamında projeleri analiz etmek için kullanılmaktadır. Çalışma, belge analizi, karşılaştırmalı vakıa analizi ve SWOT analizi destekli olası senaryolar üzerinden stratejik analiz tekniklerini kullanan nitel bir araştırma yöntemi benimsemektedir. Analiz, Fas ve Cezayir arasındaki bölgesel bölgesel rekabeti, Nijerya’nın stratejik pozisyonu ve AB’nin enerji politikalarına dayanan çok boyutlu bir çerçeve etrafında yapılandırılmıştır. İki boru hattı projesi enerji nakil altyapısı ve jeopolitik güç projeksiyonları olarak ele alınmaktadır. Bunlar Kuzey Afrika, Sahel ve Batı Afrika bağlamında şekillenen bölgesel güç rekabetinde jeopolitik kaldıraçlar olarak değerlendirilmektedir.

Keywords

Afrika Atlantik Gaz Boru Hattı , Avrupa Enerji güvenliği , Fas–Cezayir rekabeti , Nijerya Enerji Politikası , Trans-Sahra Gaz Boru Hattı

The African Atlantic Gas Pipeline and the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline: Geopolitical Competition in North Africa, West Africa, and the Sahel Triangle

Abstract

This article compares the regional and international political impacts of two gas pipeline projects currently on the agenda in Africa's energy geopolitics -the African Atlantic Gas Pipeline (Nigeria-Morocco-Europe) and the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (Nigeria-Algeria-Europe)- not merely through the lens of economics or energy transfer, but as geopolitical instruments. The study questions how the two pipeline projects shape geopolitical competition in West Africa, the Sahel, and North Africa, their positions in Nigeria’s energy-political strategy, and their importance for Europe's energy security. It conducts theoretical and empirical analysis along the axes of geopolitical competition, regional power balance, and energy security. Mackinder's Heartland Theory and Mearsheimer's offensive neorealist approach are the basic frameworks for interpreting the effects of these projects in the context of international relations. Keohane and Nye's complex interdependence approach is used to assess the potential of energy infrastructure projects to create an environment of cooperation or conflict. The energy security paradigm supported by Yergin and Vivoda's views is also used to analyze the projects in the European Union (EU) context. The study adopts a qualitative research method using document analysis, comparative case analysis, and strategic analysis techniques based on SWOT analysis-supported scenarios. The analysis is structured around a multidimensional framework based on regional competition between Morocco and Algeria, Nigeria's strategic position, and the EU's energy policies. The two pipeline projects are considered as energy transportation infrastructure and geopolitical power projections. These are evaluated geopolitical levers in the regional power competition shaping the North Africa, Sahel, and West Africa contexts.

Keywords

African Atlantic Gas Pipeline , European Energy Security , Morocco–Algeria Rivalry , Nigerian Energy Policy , Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline

خط أنابيب الغاز الأطلسي الإفريقي وخط أنابيب الغاز العابر للصحراء: التنافس الجيوسياسي في شمال إفريقيا وغرب إفريقيا ومثلث الساحل

Abstract

تُقارن هذه الدراسة بين الآثار السياسية الإقليمية والدولية لمشروعين لخطوط أنابيب الغاز المطروحة حالياً على أجندة الجغرافيا السياسية للطاقة في إفريقيا، وهما: خط أنابيب الغاز الأطلسي الإفريقي (نيجيريا – المغرب – أوروبا) وخط أنابيب الغاز العابر للصحراء (نيجيريا – الجزائر – أوروبا). ولا يتم تناول هذه المشاريع من منظور اقتصادي أو لنقل الطاقة فحسب، بل بوصفها أدوات جيوسياسية. وتطرح الدراسة إشكالية الكيفية التي تُسهم بها هذه المشاريع في تشكيل التنافس الجيوسياسي في غرب إفريقيا والساحل وشمال إفريقيا، إضافةً إلى موقعها ضمن الاستراتيجية الطاقوية-السياسية لنيجيريا، وأهميتها لأمن الطاقة الأوروبي. وتُجرى الدراسة على أساس تحليل نظري وتجريبي وفق محاور التنافس الجيوسياسي، وتوازن القوى الإقليمية، وأمن الطاقة. ويُعتمد في التفسير على نظرية "قلب العالم" لماكيندر، والمقاربة الواقعية الهجومية لمرشايمر في سياق العلاقات الدولية. كما يُستفاد من مقاربة الاعتماد المتبادل المعقّد لكيوهان وناي لتقييم إمكانات مشاريع البنية التحتية للطاقة في خلق بيئة من التعاون أو الصراع. أما في السياق الأوروبي، فيُعتمد نموذج أمن الطاقة وفقاً لرؤى يرغين وفيفودا لتحليل المشاريع في إطار الاتحاد الأوروبي. وتتبنى الدراسة منهجية بحث نوعية تستند إلى تحليل الوثائق، والمقارنة بين الحالات، وتقنيات التحليل الاستراتيجي القائمة على السيناريوهات المدعومة بتحليل SWOT. ويُبنى التحليل على إطار متعدد الأبعاد يركز على التنافس الإقليمي بين المغرب والجزائر، والموقع الاستراتيجي لنيجيريا، وسياسات الاتحاد الأوروبي في مجال الطاقة. ويُنظر إلى المشروعين ليس فقط كبنية تحتية لنقل الطاقة، بل أيضاً كإسقاطات للقوة الجيوسياسية، وأدوات للضغط في سياق التنافس الإقليمي الذي يعيد تشكيل مشهديات شمال إفريقيا والساحل وغرب إفريقيا.

Keywords

خط أنابيب الغاز الأطلسي الإفريقي , أمن الطاقة الأوروبي , التنافس بين المغرب والجزائر , السياسة الطاقوية النيجيرية , خط أنابيب الغاز العابر للصحراء

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