Sudan Savaşı ve Kızıldeniz'e Yansımaları: Bölgesel İstikrarsızlık mı, Yeni Bir Güç Dengesinin Arayışı mı?

Year 2025, Volume: 17 Issue: 1, 131 - 148, 31.10.2025

Amir Salim

https://doi.org/10.47932/ortetut.1774033

Abstract

Nisan 2023’ten bu yana Sudan Silahlı Kuvvetleri (SAF) ile Hızlı Destek Kuvvetleri (RSF) arasında süregelen savaş, Sudan’ı bir iç çatışma ortamına sürüklemiştir. Bu çalışma, devam eden savaşın Kızıldeniz’deki güvenlik ve jeopolitik güç dengesi üzerindeki etkilerini incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Savaş öncesi ve sonrası dönemde dış aktörlerin Sudan’ın Kızıldeniz kıyısında deniz varlığı kurma arayışlarının ardındaki motivasyonları analiz etmektedir. Ayrıca, Sudan’ın bu dış aktörlerin girişimlerine karşı geliştirdiği stratejiyi değerlendirmektedir. Çalışma, savaşın bağlamsal arka planını sunarak başlamakta ve Kızıldeniz bölgesindeki Sudan’a komşu ülkeler üzerindeki etkilerini detaylandırmaktadır.

Merkez tez, Sudan’daki mevcut çatışmanın Kızıldeniz bölgesindeki güvenliği etkilemesinin veya güç dengesini yeniden şekillendirmesinin olası olmadığı yönündedir. Makale, Sudan’daki tekrarlayan siyasi istikrarsızlık ve jeopolitik rekabetin bir yandan Sudan’ın doğu kıyısındaki dış çıkarlar karşısındaki stratejisini şekillendirdiğini, diğer yandan ise Kızıldeniz’deki mevcut güç dengesinin korunmasına katkı sağladığını ileri sürmektedir. Sonuç bölümünde temel varsayımlar yeniden ele alınmakta ve dış aktörler arasındaki rekabetin Sudan’ın Kızıldeniz kıyısında güçlü bir dış deniz varlığına izin verme kapasitesini zayıflattığı vurgulanmaktadır. Son olarak, çalışma Sudan ile dış aktörler arasında güvenliği korumak ve Kızıldeniz’in daha geniş bölgesinde istikrara katkı sağlamak amacıyla ortak ve işbirliğine dayalı bir güvenlik çerçevesi oluşturulmasını savunmaktadır.

Keywords

Sudan , Red Sea , Horn of Africa , Geopolitics , Security

"حرب السودان وانعكاساتها على البحر الأحمر: عدم استقرار إقليمي أم بحث عن توازن جديد للقوى

Abstract

منذ أبريل 2023، تشهد السودان حربًا بين القوات المسلحة السودانية (SAF) وقوات الدعم السريع (RSF). تهدف هذه الدراسة إلى تحليل تأثير الحرب المستمرة على الأمن والتوازن الجيوسياسي للقوى في منطقة البحر الأحمر. تقدم الدراسة تحليلًا لدوافع الجهات الخارجية الساعية إلى تأسيس وجود بحري على ساحل السودان المطل على البحر الأحمر، قبل الحرب وبعدها. كما تتناول استراتيجية السودان في التعامل مع هذه المبادرات الخارجية. تبدأ الدراسة بتقديم خلفية سياقية وتحليل للحرب، ثم تستعرض انعكاساتها على الدول المجاورة للسودان في منطقة البحر الأحمر.

الحجة المركزية للدراسة هي أن النزاع الحالي في السودان من غير المرجح أن يؤثر بشكل كبير على الأمن أو يعيد تشكيل ميزان القوى في منطقة البحر الأحمر. وتفترض الورقة أن عدم الاستقرار السياسي المتكرر في السودان والتنافس الجيوسياسي قد شكّلا من جهة استراتيجية السودان تجاه المصالح الخارجية في ساحله الشرقي، ومن جهة أخرى حافظا على التوازن القائم للقوى في المنطقة. وتعيد الخاتمة النظر في الافتراضات الأساسية، وتؤكد أن التنافس بين الجهات الخارجية قد أضعف قدرة السودان على السماح بوجود بحري خارجي قوي على ساحله المطل على البحر الأحمر. وأخيرًا، تدعو الورقة إلى وضع إطار أمني مشترك وتعاوني بين السودان والجهات الخارجية بهدف الحفاظ على الأمن والمساهمة في استقرار منطقة البحر الأحمر الأوسع.

Keywords

السودان , البحر الأحمر , القرن الأفريقي , الجغرافيا السياسية , الأمن

The Sudan War and its Reflections on the Red Sea: Regional Instability or Search for a New Balance of Power?

Abstract

Sudan has been in war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since April 2023. This study seeks to examine the effects of the ongoing war on security and geopolitical balance of power in the Red Sea. It provides an analysis of the motivations behind the external actors’ quest for naval presence on Sudan’s Red Sea coast before and after the war. In addition, it analyzes Sudan’s strategy on overtures by those external actors. It begins by providing contextual background and analysis of the war and elaborates its implications on Sudan neighboring countries in the Red Sea region. The central argument is that the current conflict in Sudan is unlikely to affect the security or reshape the balance of power in the Red Sea region. The paper posits that the recurrent political instability in Sudan and geopolitical rivalry have from one hand shaped Sudan strategy towards external interests in its eastern coastline and from the other hand maintained the current balance of power in the Red Sea region. The conclusion reexamines the main assumptions and reinforces that external actors’ competition has crippled Sudan’s capability to allow robust external naval presence on its Red Sea coast. Finally, the paper advocates for a joint collaborative security framework to be agreed between Sudan and external actors with the view to maintain security and contribute to the stability of the wider Red Sea region.

Keywords

Sudan , Red Sea , Horn of Africa , Secuirty

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