Libya: Küresel ve Bölgesel Güç Rekabetinin Sahnesi

Year 2025, Volume: 17 Issue: 1, 99 - 130, 31.10.2025

Ferhat Polat

https://doi.org/10.47932/ortetut.1775978

Abstract

Bu makale, 2011’de Muammer Kaddafi’nin devrilmesinden sonra Libya’nın bölgesel ve küresel güç rekabetinin başlıca sahnesine dönüşümünü ele almaktadır. Kaddafi’nin kırk yıllık rejiminin çöküşü, bir iktidar boşluğu yaratarak ülke içinde parçalanmaya, milislerin yükselişine ve tekrarlayan iç savaşlara yol açmıştır. Libya’daki istikrarsızlık, dış aktörlerin müdahaleleriyle daha da derinleşmiş ve ülkeyi vekâlet savaşlarının merkezine taşımıştır. Mısır, BAE, Rusya, Fransa ve Türkiye gibi ülkeler, kendi stratejik, siyasi ve ekonomik çıkarlarını ilerletmek için farklı grupları desteklemiştir.

Analiz, özellikle Rusya’nın paralı askerler ve mali yardımlarla Halife Hafter’i desteklemesi ve Türkiye’nin BM tarafından tanınan Ulusal Mutabakat Hükümeti’ne (UMH) verdiği askeri ve diplomatik desteğin güç dengelerini nasıl değiştirdiğini vurgulamaktadır. Rusya, Akdeniz ve Sahel’de nüfuzunu artırmayı hedeflerken, Türkiye’nin rolü daha yapıcı bir çerçevede değerlendirilmektedir; siyasi diyalog, devlet kurumlarının yeniden inşası ve Doğu Akdeniz’deki çıkarlarının korunması ön planda tutulmaktadır.

Makale ayrıca Libya’nın komşuları olan Mısır, Tunus, Cezayir ve Sudan’ın pozisyonlarını ele almakta; bu ülkelerin güvenlik ve ekonomik istikrarlarının Libya’daki kaostan doğrudan etkilendiğini göstermektedir. Sonuç olarak yazar, kalıcı barış için kapsayıcı siyasi süreçlerin, güvenilir seçimlerin, kurumsal yeniden yapılanmanın ve koordineli uluslararası arabuluculuğun şart olduğunu savunmaktadır. Yönetim konusunda uzlaşma sağlanmadığı ve dış müdahaleler azaltılmadığı sürece Libya’nın parçalanmış ve istikrarsız kalma riski devam edecektir. Libya’nın geleceği, dış rekabetlerin savaş alanı olmaktan çıkarılıp, uzlaşı ve ekonomik toparlanma üzerine kurulu egemen bir devlete dönüşmesine bağlıdır.

Keywords

Libya , dış müdahale , iç savaş , vekâlet savaşı , jeopolitik

ليبيا كساحة للتنافس الإقليمي والدولي على النفوذ

Abstract

تناول هذه الدراسة تحوّل ليبيا منذ سقوط معمر القذافي عام 2011 إلى ساحة رئيسية للتنافس الإقليمي والدولي. فقد أدى انهيار نظامه الذي استمر أربعة عقود إلى فراغ في السلطة، مما غذّى الانقسامات الداخلية، وصعود الميليشيات، وتجدد الحروب الأهلية. وقد زادت التدخلات الخارجية من تعقيد الأزمة، حيث تحولت ليبيا إلى ساحة صراع بالوكالة. إذ دعمت دول مثل مصر، الإمارات، فرنسا، وتركيا فصائل متنازعة لتحقيق مصالحها السياسية والاقتصادية والجيوستراتيجية.

يبرز التحليل الدور الحاسم للتدخلات الخارجية، وخاصة دعم روسيا لخليفة حفتر عبر المرتزقة والدعم المالي، مقابل الدعم العسكري والدبلوماسي التركي لحكومة الوفاق الوطني المعترف بها دولياً. ففي حين تسعى روسيا إلى توسيع نفوذها في البحر المتوسط ومنطقة الساحل، فإن تركيا تبنّت مقاربة أكثر بنائية، ركزت على الحوار السياسي، وبناء مؤسسات الدولة، وحماية مصالحها في شرق المتوسط.

كما يناقش البحث مواقف دول الجوار – مصر، تونس، الجزائر، والسودان – التي تأثرت أمنياً واقتصادياً بالفوضى الليبية. ويخلص المؤلف إلى أن تحقيق الاستقرار يتطلب عملية سياسية شاملة، وانتخابات نزيهة، وإعادة بناء مؤسسات الدولة، إضافة إلى وساطة دولية منسقة. فغياب التوافق حول الحكم واستمرار التدخلات الأجنبية سيبقي ليبيا في حالة انقسام وعدم استقرار. ويؤكد أن مستقبل ليبيا يعتمد على تحويلها من ساحة صراع خارجي إلى دولة ذات سيادة، قائمة على المصالحة الوطنية، والاستقرار، والتعافي الاقتصادي المدعوم من مواردها النفطية.

الكلمات المفتاحية: ليبيا، التدخل الخارجي، الحرب الأهلية، الحرب بالوكالة، الجيوسياسة

Keywords

ليبيا , التدخل الخارجي , الحرب الأهلية , الحرب بالوكالة , الجيوسياسة

Libya as a Theatre of Global and Regional Power Competition

Abstract

The paper examines Libya’s transformation into a major arena of regional and global power competition since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011. The collapse of his four-decade regime created a power vacuum that fuelled internal fragmentation, the rise of militias, and repeated civil wars. Libya’s instability has been exacerbated by the interference of external actors, turning the conflict into a proxy war. Countries such as Egypt, the UAE, Russia, France, and Türkiye have supported rival factions to pursue their strategic, political, and economic interests.

The analysis highlights how foreign involvement particularly Russia’s use of mercenaries and financial backing for Khalifa Haftar, and Türkiye’s military and diplomatic support for the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) has reshaped the balance of power. While Russia seeks to expand its Mediterranean and Sahel influence, Türkiye’s role is framed as more constructive, focusing on political dialogue, state-building, and protecting its interests in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The paper also considers the positions of Libya’s neighbours Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, and Sudan whose security and economic stability are directly affected by Libya’s turmoil. Ultimately, the paper argues that sustainable peace requires inclusive political processes, credible elections, institutional rebuilding, and coordinated international mediation. Without consensus on governance and a reduction in foreign interference, Libya risks remaining fragmented and unstable. The conclusion stresses that Libya’s future depends on transforming its status as a battlefield of external rivalries into a sovereign state built on reconciliation, stability, and resource-driven economic recovery.

Keywords

Libya , foreign intervention , civil war , proxy war , geopolitics

References

• Abba, Sadeeque, Mohamed Mohammed, and Mukhtar Imam. “Libya in The Post Ghadaffi Era.” The International Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities Invention 2, no. 2 (2014): 1150-1166.
• Aidt, Toke S., and Facundo Albornoz. “Political Regimes and Foreign Intervention.” Journal of Development Economics 94, no. 2 (2011): 192-201. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. jdeveco.2010.01.016.
• Akıncı, Şerife, and Recep Yorulmaz. “Kaddafi Döneminden Günümüze Türkiye-Libya Ekonomik İlişkileri.” ORSAM, June 12, 2020. https://www.orsam.org.tr/tr/kaddafi- doneminden-gunumuze-turkiye-libya-ekonomik-iliskileri/.
• Al Jazeera. “Libya, Turkey Sign Deals on Security and Maritime Jurisdictions”. November 28, 2019. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/11/28/libya-turkey- sign-deals-on-security-and-maritime-jurisdictions.
• Anadolu Agency, “Turkish President Meets Speaker of Libyan House of Representatives.” December 13, 2023. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/turkish-president- meets-speaker-of-libyan-house-of-representatives/3081489.
• Anadolu Agency. “Turkish Airlines Resumes Flights from Istanbul to Benghazi, Libya after 10 Years.” January 14, 2025. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkiye/turkish-airlines- resumes-flights-from-istanbul-to-benghazi-libya-after-10-years/3449903.
• Anadolu Agency. “Year after Attacks, Daesh Threat Receding in Tunisia.” March 11, 2017. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/year-after-attacks-daesh-threatreceding- in-tunisia/768985.
• Andersen, Morten Skumsrud. “Legitimacy in State-Building: A Review of the IR Literature.” International Political Sociology 6, no. 2 (2012): 205-19. https://doi.org/10.1111/ j.1749-5687.2012.00159.x.
• AP News. “Cyprus, Greece, Israel to Sign Pipeline Deal on Jan. 2.” December 23, 2019. https://apnews.com/article/b1d346b8e360f9ab85e08e460c8bb089.
• AP News. “Spanish Diplomat Named to Top UN Post in Libya.” August 14, 2014. https:// apnews.com/general-news-0a9f0d5a28da41469eb54f13ef152a5c.
• APICORP. “Libyan Oil - Prospects for Stability and Growth.” November 2018. https:// www.apicorp.org/search/Libya+/.
• Bardakçı, Mehmet. “Turkey and the Major Powers in the Eastern Mediterranean Crisis from the 2010s to the 2020s.” Comparative Southeast European Studies 70, no. 3 (2022): 516-39. https://doi.org/10.1515/soeu-2021-0071.
• BBC Monitoring. “Militias in the Libyan Capital Tripoli - Who’s Who?” April 5, 2019. https://monitoring.bbc.co.uk/product/c200qbw7. Cavatorta, Francesco. Political Parties in the Arab World: Continuity and Change. Edinburgh UP, 2018.
• Collier, Paul, and Anke Hoeffler. “Greed and Grievance in Civil War.” Oxford Economic Papers 56, no. 4 (2004): 563-95. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpf064.
• Daalder, Ivo H., and James G. Stavridis. “NATO’s Victory in Libya.” Foreign Affairs, February 2, 2012. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/libya/2012-02-02/ natos-victory-libya.
• Economist Intelligence Unit. “Unrest in Sudan Carries Spillover Threats for Libya.” May 9, 2023. https://www.eiu.com/n/unrest-in-sudan-carries-spillover-threats-for-libya/.
• Elissa, Miller. “Why Libya’s Stability Matters to the Region.” Atlantic Council, January 25, 2017. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/why-libya-s-stability- matters-to-the-region/.
• Fuller, Graham E. Turkey and the Arab Spring: Leadership in the Middle East. Bozorg Press, 2014.
• Hartzell, Caroline A., and Matthew Hoddie. Crafting Peace: Power-Sharing Institutions and the Negotiated Settlement of Civil Wars. Penn State Press, 2015.
• Hehir, Aidan, and Neil Robinson, eds. State-Building: Theory and Practice. Routledge, 2007. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203964712.
• Hove, Mediel. “Post-Gaddafi Libya and the African Union: Challenges and the Road to Sustainable Peace.” Journal of Asian and African Studies 52, no. 3 (2017): 271-86. https://doi.org/10.1177/0021909615583366.
• Jonathan, M.Winer. “Seized Russian-Printed Dinars Highlight an Opportunity to Reform Libya’s Civil War Economy.” Middle East Institute, November 9, 2019. https://www. mei.edu/publications/seized-russian-printed-dinars-highlight-opportunity-reform- libyas-civil-war-economy.
• Kalyvas, Stathis N. The Logic of Violence in Civil War. Cambridge UP, 2006. https://doi. org/10.1017/CBO9780511818462.
• Karasapan, Omer. “The Impact of Libyan Middle-Class Refugees in Tunisia.” Brookings, March 17, 2015. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-impact-of-libyan-middle- class-refugees-in-tunisia/.
• Kashiem, Mustafa A Abulgasem. “The Dynamic of Libyan Legislative Process in the Post- Gaddafi Era: The Case of the NGC and the NTC.” Net Journal of Social Sciences 5, no. 2 (2017).
• Khadduri, Walid. “East Mediterranean Gas: Opportunities and Challenges.” Mediterranean Politics 17, no. 1 (2012): 111-17. https://doi.org/10.1080/13629395.2012.655049.
• Kim, Taehwan, and Sang Yoon Shin. “Competition or Cooperation? The Geopolitics of Gas Discovery in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea.” Energy Research & Social Science 74 (2021): 101983. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2021.101983.
• Koloğlu, Orhan. 500 Years in Turkish-Libyan Relations. Center for Strategic Research, 2007.
• Kuczyński, Grzegorz. “Civil War in Libya: Russian Goals and Policy.” Warsaw Institute. April 30, 2019. https://warsawinstitute.org/civil-war-libya-russian-goals-policy/.
• Lacher, Wolfram. “Social Cleavages and Armed Group Consolidation: The Case of Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan Arab Armed Forces.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 47, no. 9 (2024): 1065-89. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2021.2013757.
• Lacher, Wolfram. “Was Libya’s Collapse Predictable?” Survival 59, no. 2 (2017): 139-52. https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2017.1302194.
• Laessing, Ulf. Understanding Libya since Gaddafi. Hurst & Company, 2020.
• Lake, David. “The Practice and Theory of US Statebuilding.” Journal of Intervention and Statebuilding 4, no. 3 (2010): 257-84. https://doi.org/10.1080/17502977.2010.498933.
• Lawson, Fred H. “Foreign Military Intervention and the Duration of Civil Wars Revisited.” Jadavpur Journal of International Relations 23, no. 2 (2019): 232-41. https://doi. org/10.1177/0973598419851366.
• Libya Observer. “HoR Calls on Turkish Companies to Resume Their Projects in Libya.” July 31, 2022. https://libyaobserver.ly/news/hor-calls-turkish-companies-resumetheir- projects-libya.
• Maillard, Matteo. “Africa Corps: How Russia is Conquering the Sahel, Base by Base.” The Africa Report, February 12, 2025. https://www.theafricareport.com/376583/ africa-corps-how-russia-is-conquering-the-sahel-base-by-base/.
• Megerisi, Tarek. “How Libya Became a Battleground for Foreign Powers.” New Lines Magazine, October 11, 2020. https://newlinesmag.com/argument/how-libya-became- a-battleground-for-foreign-powers/.
• Mundy, Jacob. “Libya: Lost in Transition.” Middle East Law and Governance 13, no. 1 (2021): 1-3. https://doi.org/10.1163/18763375-13010005.
• OECD. “Concepts and Dilemmas of State Building in Fragile Situations.” OECD Journal on Development 9, no. 3 (2009): 61-148. https://doi.org/10.1787/journal_dev-v9- art27-en.
• Pack, Jason, and Matthew Sinkez. “Khalifa Haftar’s Miscalculated Attack on Tripoli Will Cost Him Dearly.” Foreign Policy, April 10, 2019. https://foreignpolicy. com/2019/04/10/khalifa-haftars-miscalculated-attack-on-tripoli-will-cost-himand- libya-dearly-un-benghazi-gna-lna/.
• Polat, Ferhat. “10 Years After the Arab Spring: Is a Long-Lasting Political Solution within Reach in Libya?” In The Arab Spring: Past, Present, and Future. TRT World Research Centre, 2024. https://researchcentre.trtworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/ Arab-Spring-Book.pdf.
• Polat, Ferhat. “What Hope is There for Libya’s Long-Awaited Elections?” The New Arab, March 21, 2024. https://www.newarab.com/opinion/what-hope-there-libyas-longawaited- elections.
• Polat, Ferhat. Algeria’s Role in Libya. TRT World Research Center, 2020. https://researchcentre. trtworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Algeria_Role_in_Libya.pdf.
• Polat, Ferhat. Egypt’s Role in Libya. TRT World Research Center, 2020. https://researchcentre. trtworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Egypts-Role-in-Libya.pdf.
• Polat, Ferhat. Gold, Guns, and Geopolitics: The Sudan Conflict and Its Regional Implications. TRT World Research Center, 2025. https://researchcentre.trtworld.com/wp-content/ uploads/2025/02/Gold-Guns-and-Geopolitics-Sudan-.pdf.
• Polat, Ferhat. “How Wagner’s Revolt Could Impact Russia’s Influence in Libya.” The New Arab, 2023. https://www.newarab.com/analysis/how-wagners-revolt-could-impact- russias-influence-libya.
• Polat, Ferhat. Libya’s Civil War: Is the End in Sight? TRT World Research Centre, 2019. https://researchcentre.trtworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Libya_civil-war. pdf.
• Polat, Ferhat. Libya’s Government of National Unity: Priorities and Challenges. TRT World Research Centre, 2021. https://researchcentre.trtworld.com/wp-content/uploads/ 2021/04/Libya-Government-National-Unity.pdf
• Polat, Ferhat. Mercenaries in Libya and the Threat to Regional Peace. TRT World Research Centre, 2021. https://researchcentre.trtworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/ Mercenaries-in-Libya-and-threat-to-the-region-.pdf.
• Polat, Ferhat. Mercenaries in Libya and the Threat to Regional Peace. TRT World Research Centre, 2021. https://researchcentre.trtworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/ Mercenaries-in-Libya-and-threat-to-the-region-.pdf.
• Polat, Ferhat. “Of Energy and Unity: Oil and Challenges to Libya’s Political and Economic Future.” TRT World Research Centre, 2021. https://researchcentre.trtworld. com/policy-outlooks/of-energy-and-unity-oil-and-challenges-to-libyas-political- and-economic-future/.
• Polat, Ferhat. “Russia’s Policy in Libya from 2011 Onwards.” TRT World Research Centre, 2020. https://www.academia.edu/43643677/Russias_Policy_in_Libya_from_2011_ Onwards.
• Polat, Ferhat. “Turkey’s Strategy in Libya: Rationale and Challenges.” TRT World Research Centre, 2020. https://researchcentre.trtworld.com/policy-outlooks/turkeys-strategy- in-libya-rationale-and-challenges/.
• Regan, Patrick M. “Third-Party Interventions and the Duration of Intrastate Conflicts.” The Journal of Conflict Resolution 46, no. 1 (2002): 55-73.
• Reuters. “Greece, Israel, Cyprus Sign EastMed Gas Pipeline Deal.” January 2, 2020. https:// www.reuters.com/article/us-greece-cyprus-israel-pipeline-idUSKBN1Z10R5.
• Reuters. “Turkey-Libya Maritime Deal Rattles East Mediterranean.” December 25, 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-libya-eastmed-tensions-explain- idUSKBN1YT0JK.
• Rotberg, Robert I., ed. When States Fail: Causes and Consequences. Princeton UP, 2004. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctt7scrg.
• Sawani, Youssef Mohammad. “Justice, Reconciliation, and State-Building in Post-Gaddafi Libya.” Contemporary Arab Affairs 15, no. 2 (2022): 3-24. https://doi.org/10.1525/ caa.2022.15.2.3.
• Schmidt, Annie. “UN Libya Envoy: ‘This Conflict, Left to Itself, Can Only Deteriorate and Expand’.” International Peace Institute, 22 May 2019. https://www.ipinst. org/2019/05/a-conversation-with-srsg-ghassan-salame-head-of-unsmil.
• Szczepankiewicz-Rudzka, Ewa. “Patterns of Libya’s Instability in the Aftermath of the Collapse of Gaddafi’s Regime.” Politeja 13, no. 42 (2016): 227-46.
• The Guardian. “Tunis Museum Attack: 20 People Killed after Hostage Drama at Tourist Site.” March 18, 2015. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/18/eightpeople- killed-in-attack-on-tunisia-bardo-museum.
• The Libya Observer. “Atlantic Council: Billions of Russia-Printed Dinars Have Flooded Libyan Market.” May 1, 2024. https://libyaobserver.ly/news/atlantic-council-billions- russia-printed-dinars-have-flooded-libyan-market.
• The Libya Observer. “Libya’s Government of National Unity Sworn in at Tobruk-Based HoR.” March 15, 2021. https://libyaobserver.ly/news/libyas-government-national- unity-sworn-tobruk-based-hor.
• The Washington Post. “Libya’s Warring Sides Reach Permanent Cease-Fire. U.N. Calls It ‘Historic’.” October 23, 2020. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_ east/libya-ceasefire-un-tripoli-war/2020/10/23/86c04b88-151f-11eb-a258- 614acf2b906d_story.html.
• The WSJ, “Russia Withdraws Air-Defense Systems, Other Advanced Weaponry from Syria to Libya.” December 18, 2024. https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-air-defensebases- syria-libya-25810db0.
• Toperich, Sasha, and Debra Cagan. “Congress Should Sanction Libyan Warlord and U.S. Citizen Khalifa Haftar.” The National Interest, September 16, 2021. https://nationalinterest. org/feature/congress-should-sanction-libyan-warlord-and-us-citizen- khalifa-haftar-193883.
• Türenç, Tufan. “Bir Kaddafi Anısı.” Hürriyet, February 25, 2011. https://www.hurriyet. com.tr/bir-kaddafi-anisi-17115996.
• Westenberger, Kay. “Egypt’s Security Paradox in Libya.” E-International Relations, April 8, 2019. https://www.e-ir.info/pdf/78395.