Regional Competition in the Middle East in the 21st Century: Turkey and Egypt

Abstract

The Middle East has been a venue of conflict and power struggle for decades and there are a number of contenders in this conflict. On the one hand, Egypt has traditionally been recognized as a leading country in the region. On the other hand, Turkey has emerged as a regional actor with clear interests in Middle Eastern politics thanks to its hard and soft power capabilities. Particularly, the Justice and Development Party (JDP) era has prioritized Turkish foreign policy towards the Middle East with strong reference to regional leadership. This paper will analyze the leadership competition between Turkey and Egypt on the basis of shared vs. competing economic and ideological interests. The economic interests would include relative size of these countries’ economy towards their neighbors and rivals, their economic interdependence with the region and their economic capabilities that would enable them to lead large scale projects within their territories and the whole region, and finally the military expenditure. The ideological interests, on the other hand, are an important parameter on the leadership competition in the Middle East. Combining the potential effects of these issues, this paper will attempt to shed light on the current situation and will give hints on policy implications regarding the leadership competition in the region.

Keywords

• Middle East, Turkish Foreign Policy, Muslim Brotherhood, Middle Power

21. Yüzyılda Ortadoğu’da Bölgesel Rekabet: Türkiye ve Mısır

Abstract

Ortadoğu, on yıllar boyunca çeşitli çatışmalara ve güç kavgalarına sahne olmuştur. Son dönemde, bilhassa iki ülke, Türkiye ve Mısır bu çatışmalı ortamı liderlik kapasitesi ve iddiası açısından doldurmaktadır. Mısır geleneksel olarak bölgede lider olarak bilinmiş bir aktördür. Bununla birlikte, Türkiye özellikle son dönemde hem sert hem de yumuşak güç ile ilgili konularda hedefi olan, bölgesel bir aktör olarak yükselmiştir. Özellikle Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi (AKP) dönemi, Ortadoğu’ya yönelik Türk dış politikasının bölgesel liderlik ekseninde yeniden oluşturulduğu bir dönem oldu. Bu çalışma Türkiye ile Mısır arasındaki liderlik mücadelesini ortak ve karşıt ekonomik ve ideolojik çıkarlar ekseninde inceleyecektir. Bu bağlamda ekonomik çıkarlar ülkelerin nominal ve bölgeye, komşularına ve rakiplerine oranla ekonomik büyüklükleri, bölge ülkeleriyle karşılıklı bağımlılıkları, kendi topraklarında ve bölgede geniş çaplı yatırımları destekleyebilecek ekonomik kapasiteleri ve askeri harcamaları olarak tanımlanmıştır. Öte yandan, ideolojik çıkarlar Ortadoğu’da gerçekleşen liderlik yarışının önemli bir parametresidir. İslami siyasi partilerin ortaya çıkmasıyla birlikte Türkiye 1970lerden itibaren yeni bir döneme girdi. Özellikle AKP döneminde bu ideolojik yaklaşım ve bunun bölge politikalarına yansıması bu iki ülkenin hem içişlerinde hem de dış işlerinde pek çok değişikliğe sebep oldu. Bu çalışma, sayılan bütün bu unsurların potansiyel etkilerini birleştirerek, halihazırdaki duruma ışık tutarak bölgedeki liderlik yarışına ilişkin siyasete yönelik ipuçları verecektir. Bu analiz, iki ülkenin yakın gelecekte bölgedeki liderlik rolü için daha girişken bir role bürüneceğine ilişkin temel varsayımı doğrulamak ve bölgesel çıkarlarının kısa vadede değilse bile orta-uzun vadede çakışabileceğini öne sürmeyi amaçlamaktadır.

Keywords

• Orta Doğu, Türk Dış Politikası, Müslüman Kardeşliği

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