Dördüz Açıklar: Ütopya Mı Yoksa Gerçek Mi?

Abstract

Bu çalışma, literatürde ikiz ve üçüz açık hipotezleri olarak bilinen olguları genişleterek, yeni bir hipotez olan “dördüz açıklar” kavramını gündeme getirmektedir. Bu bağlamda çalışmada; çıktı açığı, tasarruf açığı, bütçe açığı ve cari açık arasındaki ilişkiler Türkiye ekonomisi 1980-2013 dönemi için araştırılmıştır. İlk olarak, değişkenlere ait durağanlık bilgileri ADF ve PP birim kök testleri kullanılarak sınanmış ve bütün değişkenlerin birinci fark değerlerinde durağan olduğu gözlenmiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin belirlenebilmesi amacıyla Enders-Siklos eşbütünleşme analizi uygulanmış ve TAR ile M-TAR analiz bulguları, ilgili değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli ilişkilerin geçerli olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Bunun yanı sıra, değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkileri TECM temelli Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi ile sınanmış ve beklentilerle uyumlu olan nedensellik ilişkilerinin varlığı kanıtlanmıştır. Nedensellik bulgularını destekleyen eşanlı denklem sistemi tahmin sonuçları; çıktı açığı, tasarruf açığı ve bütçe açığının cari açık üzerinde pozitif ve istatistiki bakımdan anlamlı etkiler yarattığını ortaya koymuştur. Her bir açık türünün çeşitli makroekonomik problemlere neden olduğunu gösteren tahmin sonuçları, Türkiye ekonomisinde dördüz açık hipotezinin geçerli olduğunu yansıtmıştır. 

Keywords

• İkiz!Açıklar
• !Üçüz!Açıklar
• !Dördüz!Açıklar
• !Eşanlı!Denklem!Sistemleri

QUADRUPLET DEFICITS: UTOPIA OR REALITY?

Abstract

This study introduces a new hypothesis called as “quadruplet deficits” by extending the well known twin and triple deficits hypothesis. In this context, the relationships between output deficit,
saving deficit, budget deficit and current account deficit are examined in the period 1980-2013 in Turkish economy. First of all, the stationary information of the variables is analyzed by using ADF and PP unit root tests and it is observed that the variables are stationary in the first difference value. Enders Siklos cointegration analysis is applied to determine the cointegration relationship among the variables and the findings of the TAR and MYTAR analysis show the validity of long run relationships among the variables. Besides, the causality nexus among the variables is tested using Today Yamamoto causality analysis based on TECM and the causal linkages among the variables are found  that are compatible with the expectations. The results of the simultaneous equation system supporting the causality findings point out that output deficit, saving deficit and budget deficit have a positive and significant impact on current account deficit. The estimation results showing that each of the types of deficits brings about various macroeconomic problems indicate that quadruplet deficit hypothesis is valid in Turkish economy.

Keywords

• Twin!Deficits
• !Triple!Deficits
• !Quadruplet!Deficits
• !Simultaneous!Equation!Systems

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