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Dördüz Açıklar: Ütopya Mı Yoksa Gerçek Mi?

Year 2016, Volume: 12 Issue: 1, 22 - 47, 22.04.2016

Abstract

Bu çalışma, literatürde ikiz ve üçüz açık hipotezleri olarak bilinen olguları genişleterek, yeni bir hipotez olan “dördüz açıklar” kavramını gündeme getirmektedir. Bu bağlamda çalışmada; çıktı açığı, tasarruf açığı, bütçe açığı ve cari açık arasındaki ilişkiler Türkiye ekonomisi 1980-2013 dönemi için araştırılmıştır. İlk olarak, değişkenlere ait durağanlık bilgileri ADF ve PP birim kök testleri kullanılarak sınanmış ve bütün değişkenlerin birinci fark değerlerinde durağan olduğu gözlenmiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin belirlenebilmesi amacıyla Enders-Siklos eşbütünleşme analizi uygulanmış ve TAR ile M-TAR analiz bulguları, ilgili değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli ilişkilerin geçerli olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Bunun yanı sıra, değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkileri TECM temelli Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi ile sınanmış ve beklentilerle uyumlu olan nedensellik ilişkilerinin varlığı kanıtlanmıştır. Nedensellik bulgularını destekleyen eşanlı denklem sistemi tahmin sonuçları; çıktı açığı, tasarruf açığı ve bütçe açığının cari açık üzerinde pozitif ve istatistiki bakımdan anlamlı etkiler yarattığını ortaya koymuştur. Her bir açık türünün çeşitli makroekonomik problemlere neden olduğunu gösteren tahmin sonuçları, Türkiye ekonomisinde dördüz açık hipotezinin geçerli olduğunu yansıtmıştır. 

References

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QUADRUPLET DEFICITS: UTOPIA OR REALITY?

Year 2016, Volume: 12 Issue: 1, 22 - 47, 22.04.2016

Abstract

This study introduces a new hypothesis called as “quadruplet deficits” by extending the well known twin and triple deficits hypothesis. In this context, the relationships between output deficit,
saving deficit, budget deficit and current account deficit are examined in the period 1980-2013 in Turkish economy. First of all, the stationary information of the variables is analyzed by using ADF and PP unit root tests and it is observed that the variables are stationary in the first difference value. Enders Siklos cointegration analysis is applied to determine the cointegration relationship among the variables and the findings of the TAR and MYTAR analysis show the validity of long run relationships among the variables. Besides, the causality nexus among the variables is tested using Today Yamamoto causality analysis based on TECM and the causal linkages among the variables are found  that are compatible with the expectations. The results of the simultaneous equation system supporting the causality findings point out that output deficit, saving deficit and budget deficit have a positive and significant impact on current account deficit. The estimation results showing that each of the types of deficits brings about various macroeconomic problems indicate that quadruplet deficit hypothesis is valid in Turkish economy.

References

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  • Akbostancı, E. and Tunç, G. İ. (2002), “Turkish Twin Deficits: An Error Correction Model of Trade Balance”, ERC Working Papers in Economics, No: 01/06.
  • Akıncı, M. and Yılmaz, Ö. (2012), “Validity of the Triple Deficit Hypothesis in Turkey: Bounds Test Approach”, ISE Review, 13(50): 1-27.
  • Alkswani, M. A. (2000), “The Twin Deficits Phenomenon in Petroleum Economy: Evidence from Saudi Arabia”, http://www.mafhoum.com/press2/79E15.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 09.12.2014)
  • Altıntaş, H. and Taban, S. (2011), “Twin Deficit Problem and Feldstein-Horioka Hypothesis in Turkey: ARDL Bound Testing Approach and Investigation of Causality”, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 74: 30-45.
  • Anoruo, E. and Ramchander, S. (1998), “Current Account and Fiscal Deficits: Evidence from Five Developing Economies of Asia”, Journal of Asian Economics, 9(3): 487-501.
  • Ay, A., Karaçor, Z., Mucuk, M. ve Erdoğan, S. (2004), “Bütçe Açığı-Cari İşlemler Açığı Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Örneği (1992-2003)”, Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 12: 75-82.
  • Azgün, S. (2012), “Twin Deficit Hypothesis: Evidence from the Turkish Economy”, Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 13(2): 189-196.
  • Bachman, D. D. (1992), “Why Is the U.S. Current Account Deficit so Large? Evidence from Vector Autoregressions”, Southern Economic Journal, 59(2): 232-240.
  • Bardsen, G. (1989), “Estimation of Long Run Coefficients in Error Correction Models”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics, 51(3): 345-350.
  • Baumol, W. and Blinder, A. S. (1985), Economics: Principles and Policy, Third Edition, New York: HBJ Publishing.
  • Baxter, M. and Crucini, M. J. (1993), “Explaining Saving-Investment Correlations”, The American Economic Review, 83(3): 416-436.
  • Bayrak, M and Esen, Ö. (2012), “Effects of Budget Deficit on Current Account Balance: Analysis of Twin Deficits Hypothesis in Case of Turkey”, Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 23(82): 23-49.
  • Bernheim, B. D. (1988), “Budget Deficits and the Balance of Trade”, NBER Working Paper, No: 10935.
  • Biswas, B., Tribedy, G. and Saunders, P. (1992), “Further Analysis of the Twin Deficits”, Contemporary Economic Policy, 10(1): 104-107.
  • Bocutoğlu, E. (2009), Makro İktisat: Teoriler ve Politikalar, Beşinci Baskı, Trabzon: Murathan Yayınevi.
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  • Brouwer, G. and Gilbert, J. (2005), “Monetary Policy Reaction Functions in Australia”, Economic Record, 81(253): 124-134.
  • Chinn, M. D. and Prasad, E. S. (2000), “Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration”, NBER Working Paper, No: 7581.
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  • Corsetti, G. and Müller, G. J. (2006), “Twin Deficits: Squaring Theory, Evidence and Common Sense”, Economic Policy, 21(48): 597-638.
  • Court, R. H. (1974), “Three Stage Least Squares and Some Extensions Where the Structural Disturbance Covariance Matrix May Be Singular”, Econometrica, 42(3): 547-558.
  • Darrat, A. F. (1988), “Have Large Budget Deficits Caused Rising Trade Deficits?”, Southern Economic Journal, 54(4): 879-887.
  • Dewald, W. G. and Ulan, M. (1990), “The Twin-Deficit Illusion”, Cato Journal, 9(3): 689-707.
  • Domenech, R., Taguas, D. and Varela, J. (2000), “The Effects of Budget Deficit on National Saving in the OECD”, Economics Letters, 69: 377-383.
  • Dooley, M., Frankel, J. and Mathieson, D. J. (1987), “International Capital Mobility: What Do Saving-Investment Correlations Tell Us?”, IMF Staff Papers, 34(3): 503-530.
  • Duasa, J. (2009), “Asymmetric Cointegration Relationship Between Real Exchange Rate and Trade Variables: The Case of Malaysia”, MPRA Working Paper, No: 14535.
  • Egwaikhide, F. O. (1999), “Effects of Budget Deficit on Trade Balance in Nigeria: A Simulation Exercise”, African Development Review, 11(2): 265-289.
  • Eğilmez, M., “Üçüz Açık”, Radikal, 30.05.2006, http://www.radikal.com.tr/haber.php?haberno=188787, (Erişim Tarihi: 09.12.2014)
  • Eisner, R. (1994), “National Saving and Budget Deficits”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 76(1): 181-186.
  • Elwell, C. K. (2008), “The U.S. Trade Deficit: Causes, Consequences and Cures”, CRS Report for Congress, 1-26.
  • Enders, W. and Siklos, P. L. (2001), “Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 19(2): 166-176.
  • Erceg, C. J., Guerrieri, L. and Gust, C. (2005), “Expansionary Fiscal Shocks and the Trade Deficit”, International Finance Discussion Papers, No: 825.
  • Feldstein, M. (1992), “The Budget and Trade Deficits Aren’t Really Twins”, NBER Working Paper, No: 3966.
  • Feldstein, M. (2008), “Resolving the Global Imbalance: The Dollar and the U.S. Saving Rate”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 22(3): 113-125.
  • Fidrmuc, J. (2003), “The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle and Twin Deficits in Selected Countries”, Economics of Planning, 36: 135-152.
  • Fischer, S. and Easterly, W. (1990), “The Economics of the Government Budget Constraint”, The World Bank Research Observer, 5(2): 127-142.
  • Fosu, O. A. E. and Magnus, F. J. (2006), “Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration: An Examination of Foreign Direct Investment Trade and Growth Relationship”, American Journal of Applied Sciences, 3(11): 2079-2085.
  • Freund, C. (2005), “Current Account Adjustment in Industrial Countries”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 24: 1278-1298.
  • Froyen, R. T. (1999), Macroeconomics: Theories and Policies, Sixth Edition, New Jersey: Prentice Hall Inc.
  • Gale, W. G. and Orszag, P. R. (2003), “Economic Effects of Sustained Budget Deficits”, National Tax Journal, 56(3): 463-485.
  • Ghassan, H. B. (2009), “Non Linear Adjustment in the MLR Condition Evidence from Threshold Cointegration”, Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, 30(3): 63-74.
  • Granger, C. W. J. and Newbold, P. (1974), “Spurious Regressions in Econometrics”, Journal of Econometrics, 12(2): 111-120.
  • Gruber, J. W. and Kamin, S. B. (2007), “Explaining the Global Pattern of Current Account Imbalances”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 26(4): 500-522.
  • Güriş, S., Çağlayan E. ve Güriş, B. (2011), EViews İle Temel Ekonometri, İstanbul: DER Yayınları.
  • Hakkio, C. S. (1995), “The U.S. Current Account: The Other Deficit”, Economic Review, 80(3): 11-24.
  • Hatsopoulos, G. N., Krugman, P. R. and Summers, L. H. (1988), “U.S. Competitiveness: Beyond the Trade Deficit”, Science, 241(4863): 299-307.
  • Higgins, M. and Klitgaard, T. (1998), “Viewing the Current Account Deficit as a Capital Inflow”, Current Issues in Economics and Finance, 4(13): 1-6.
  • Hubbard, R. G. (2006), “The U.S. Current Account Deficit and Public Policy”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 28: 665-671.
  • Kaufmann, S., Winckler, G. and Scharler, J. (2002), “The Austrian Current Account Deficit: Driven by Twin Deficits or by Intertemporal Expenditure Allocation?”, Empirical Economics, 27(3): 529-542.
  • Kearney, C. and Monadjemi, M. (1990), “Fiscal Policy and Current Account Performance: International Evidence on the Twin Deficits”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 12(2): 197-219.
  • Khalid, A. M. and Guan, T. W. (1999), “Causality Tests of Budget and Current Account Deficits: Cross-Country Comparisons”, Empirical Economics, 24(3): 389-402.
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There are 91 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Merter Akıncı

Gönül Yüce Akıncı

Publication Date April 22, 2016
Published in Issue Year 2016 Volume: 12 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Akıncı, M., & Yüce Akıncı, G. (2016). Dördüz Açıklar: Ütopya Mı Yoksa Gerçek Mi?. Paradoks Ekonomi Sosyoloji Ve Politika Dergisi, 12(1), 22-47.