Reform and the Dynamics of In/stability in Jordan during the Arab Uprisings

Abstract

The argument that Jordan is a remarkably stable country in a volatile region has become axiomatic. Some contend that the Hashemite monarchy is indispensable for the country’s stability. Nonetheless, an in-depth analysis of Jordan’s political status quo reveals the deep-seated cleavages that- if left unattended- could jeopardize the stability of the country in years to come. The advent of a political awakening among Jordan’s youth- who display unprecedented self-entitlement- and the eruption of the Arab uprisings have left the monarch with two options: either effect genuine reform to restore the public’s trust in the regime or risk facing future instability. This paper identifies the shortcomings and imperfections of the current autocratic status quo and assesses the prospects of instability. My intent in this paper is to explain and contextualize the intricate dynamics of the regime’s insistence on reproducing the non-democratic status quo during the Arab Spring and question whether this might lead to instability in the long term in a changing society

Keywords

• Political reform, instability, hirak, autocracy, Muslim Brotherhood, East Bankers, Jordan, Hashemite Monarchy.

References

1. The Centre for Strategic Studies at the University of Jordan conducted a series of polls over the last decade and a half in which a clear majority of Jordanians expressed their fear to publicly criticize the government. For instance, in January 2012, the Center for Strategic Studies published a study on the “The State of Democracy in Jordan.” In this report, 59% of Jordanians fear criticizing government policies in the public spheres. For more details see, http://www.jcss.org/ShowNews.aspx?NewsId=317 (last visited 24 September 2015).
2. Russell E. Lucas, Institutions and the Politics of Survival in Jordan: Domestic Challenges 1988 – 2001, New York, State University of New York Press, 2005, pp. 90-113.
3. Expression coined in David Ignatius, Brent Scowcroft and Zbigniew Brzezinski, America and the World: Conversations on the Future of American Foreign Policy, New York, Basic Books, 2009.
4. The surge of the third wave of democracy is a term coined by Samuel Huntington. In his book, Huntington argues that the third wave of democracy started in Portugal in 1974 until the end of the Cold War and the democratization of Eastern Europe. For more details see, Samuel Huntington, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century, Norman, OK: University of Oklahoma Press, 1993.
5. Daniel Brumberg, “Democratization in the Arab World? The Trap of Liberalized Autocracy”, Journal of Democracy, Vol. 13, No. 4 (2002), p. 56.
6. Gabriel Almond and G. Bingham Powell, Comparative Politics: A Developmental Approach, Boston, Little, Brown, 1966, pp. 225-332.
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8. Raphael Patai, The Arab Mind, New York, Charles Scribner’s Sons, 1973.

9. Samuel Huntington, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century, Norman, University of Oklahoma Press, 1993.
10. For more details, see, Mark Tessler, Public Opinion in the Middle East: Survey Research and the Political Orientations of Ordinary Citizens, Indiana, Indiana University Press, 2011.
11. Lisa Anderson, “Absolutism and the Resilience of Monarchy in the Middle East,” Political Science Quarterly, Vol.106, No.1 (Spring 1991), p. 3. 12 Ibid.
12. Interview with Nabil Kofahi, Amman, 30 July 2013.
13. Interview with Orieb Rantawi, Amman 12 July 2013.
14. Charles Tilly, From Mobilization to Revolution, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1978, p. 191.
15. http://www.worldpolicy.org/journal/fall2013/King-Abdullah (last visited April 2015)
16. Asher Susser, “Is Jordanian monarchy in danger?” Middle East Brief, No. 72, (10 April 2013), p. 2.
17. For the best analysis of the rentier economy, see Warwick Knowles, Jordan Since 1989: A Study in Political Economy, London, I.B. Tauris, 2005.
18. A series of polls conducted by the Center for Strategic Studies at the University of Jordan, www.css-jordan.org (last visited 12 June 2014) 20 Ibid. 21 Ibid.
19. Juan Cole, “Saad’s Revolution”, at http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/saads_ revolution_20110131 (last visited 10 May 2015).
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24. Interview with Orieb Rantawi, Amman, 12 July 2013.
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26. Interview with Sabri Rbeihat, Amman, 25 June 2013. 30 Ibid.
27. Interview with Mamdouh al-Abbadi, former member to the parliament and former cabinet member, Amman, Jordan, 10 June 2013. This argument was advanced by many of my interviewees, including Taher al-Masri and Musa Ma’aitah, the former minister for political development, whom I interviewed in Amman on 11 June 2013.
28. Interview with Zaki Bany Rsheid, Amman, 21 June 2013.
29. Interview with Nabil al-Kofahi, Amman, 30 July 2013. 34 Ibid.
30. Interview with Taher Masri, Speaker of the Senate, Amman, 9 June 2013. 36 Ibid.
31. There are a plethora of articles and reports in governmental al-Raid Daily.
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34. Zamzam Initiative, or the National Initiative for Building, was launched in 2012 by moderate Islamists from the MB and other political figures to address the challenges facing the Kingdom. The Initiative highlighted the necessity to preserve state sovereignty, adopt gradual reform, and select honest people for decision-making posts. The MB rejected the move, which was seen as a sign of an unwelcome crack within its ranks.
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36. Al-Hayat, 6 August 2013, at http://alhayat.com/Details/539781 (last visited 20 July 2015).
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38. Interview with Sabri Rbeihat, Amman, 25 June 2013.
39. Interview with Rana Sabbag, Amman, 5 June 2013.
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41. Interview with Rana Sabbagh, a journalist, Amman, 5 June 2013, Lamis K Andoni, journalist at Al-Arab Al-Yaum, Amman, 23 June 2013, and Mubarak Abu Yamin al- Abbadi, a lawyer and former member to the parliament, Amman, 5 June, 2013. They all made the same observation.
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47. Satloff and Schenker, “Political Instability in Jordan”.