Post-2014 Drawdown and Afghanistan’s Transition Challenges

Abstract

The prospects of a post 2014 drawdown of foreign troops from Afghanistan and the subsequent transition process have raised concerns about the capacity of the Afghan state to endure the challenges of transition. The process of security transition was initiated in 2011 with the handing over of security responsibilities to the Afghan National Security Forces. The passing years have exposed the weaknesses of the Afghan forces while highlighting future security challenges for Afghanistan. Likewise, the process of political transition has been completed by the formation of a Unity Government in Afghanistan. The task of economic transition is a challenging one as it depends on the transformation of the Afghan economy. The paper aims at identifying the transition challenges and their implications for Afghanistan. It discusses the interests and policies of various stakeholders in the Afghan conflict. The paper highlights the role of regional states in facilitating the transition while defining its significance for regional stability

Keywords

• Afghanistan, transition, BSA, ISAF, Elections, TAPI and CASA-1000.

References

1. Nicholas J. Armstrong and Jacqueline Chura-Beaver, “Harnessing Post Conflict Transitions: A Conceptual Primer”, at http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffils/PUB1025. pdf (last visited 2 February 2015). 2 Ibid.
2. “Afghanistan Profile: A Chronology of Key Events”, at http://www.bbc.com/news/world- south-asia-12024253 (last visited 28 January 2015).
3. For detail, see http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/sn05851.pdf (last visited 27 January 2015). 6 Ibid.
4. “Inteqal: Transition to Afghan Lead”, at http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_87183. htm (last visited 28 January 2015).
5. David Jackson and Jim Michaels, “Obama Announces 34,000 Troop Drawdown in Afghanistan”, at http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/02/12/obama- afghanistan-34000-troops/1912435/# (last visited 28 January 2015).
6. Vanda Felbab-Brown, “Security and Political Developments in Afghanistan in 2014 and After: Endgame or New Game”, in Wolfgang Taucher, Mathias Vogl and Peter Webinger, Afghanistan 2014 and Beyond, at http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/ papers/2014/03/24%20security%20political%20developments%20afghanistan%20 2014%20beyond%20felbabbrown/felbabbrown%20book%20chapter%20afghanistan%20 2014.pdf (last visited 2 June 2014).
7. Vanda Felbab-Brown, “The Stakes, Politics and Implications of the U.S.-Afghanistan Bilateral Security Agreement”, at http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2013/11/17- us-afghanistan-bilateral-security-agreement-felbab-brown (last visited 2 June 2014).
8. “Security and Defense Cooperation Agreement between the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the United States of America”, at http://www.embassyofafghanistan..org/sites/default/ files/documents/BSA%20english%20AFG.pdf (last visited 25 January 2015).

9. Spencer Ackerman, “New Afghanistan Pact Means America’s Longest War Will Last Until At least 2024”, at http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/30/us-troops-afghanistan- 2024-obama-bilateral-security-agreement (last visited 25 January 2015). 13 Ibid.
10. “Security and Defense Cooperation Agreement between the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the United States of America”, at http://www.embassyofafghanistan..org/sites/default/ files/documents/BSA%20english%20AFG.pdf (last visited 25 January 2015). 15 Ibid. 16 Ibid.
11. “NATO Led Resolute Support Mission in Afghanistan”, at http://www.nato.int/cps/en/ natohq/topics_113694.htm (last visited 3 February 2015).
12. Margherita Stancati and Nathan Hodge, “Afghanistan Signs Security Pact with U.S., NATO”, at http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-afghan-bilateral-security-agreement-signed-1412076436 (last visited 25 January 2015). 19 Ibid.
13. “Afghanistan’s Security Transition Reaches Key Point”, Strategic Comments, IISS, Vol. 19, No.2 (March 2013).
14. “Developing Afghan Security Forces”, at http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_92726. htm (last visited 30 May 2014).
15. Sune Engel Rasmussen, “NATO Ends Combat Operations in Afghanistan”, The Guardian, 28 December 2014.
16. Rod Nordland, “War Deaths Top 13,000 in Afghan Security Forces”, New York Times, 3 March 2014. 24 Ibid.
17. Jason Wood, “The Importance of Cohesion in the Afghan National Army to Post-Transition Afghanistan”, The RUSI Journal, Vol. 157, No. 4 (2012), p. 45. 26 Ibid., 45. 27 Ibid., 44. 28 Ibid., 43.
18. Afghanistan’s Security Transition Reaches Key Point”, Strategic Comments, IISS, Vol. 19, No. 2 (March 2013).
19. Kenneth Katzman, “Afghanistan: Politics, Elections and Government Performance”, at http://www.fas.org/spg/crs/row/RS21922.pdf (last visited 26 June 2014).
20. “Abdullah Wins First Round of Afghan Elections”, at http://www.dw.de/abdullah-wins-first- round-of-afghan-elections/a-17593792 (last visited 29 January 2015).
21. Nathan Hodge and Margherita Stancati, “Ghani Leads Afghan Vote, But Fraud Charges Hang Over Results”, The Wall Street Journal, at http://www.online.wsj.com/articles/ashraf- ghani-takes-lead-in-afghan-election-1404747640 (last visited 8 July 2014).
22. Rahimullah Yousafzai, “No Unity in the Government”, News International (Rawalpindi), 14 December 2014.
23. Mirwais Harooni and Jessica Donati, “Afghan President Faces New Hurdles as Cabinet Nominees Rejected”, at http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/28/us-afghanisatn-politics- idUSKBNOL11QE20150128 (last visited 30 January 2015). 35 Ibid.
24. Humera Iqbal, “Quest for Peace in Afghanistan”, Regional Studies, Vol. XXXII, No. 2 (Spring 2014), p. 9. 37 Ibid., 10. 38 Ibid., 12.
25. Maleeha Lodhi, “Price of Delay”, News International (Rawalpindi), 23 July 2013.
26. Rahimullah Yousafzai, “The Three Proposals”, News International (Rawalpindi), 14 December 2014. 41 Ibid.
27. Andrew C. Kuchins, “A Truly Regional Economic Strategy for Afghanistan”, The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 34, No. 3 (2011), p. 78. 43 Ibid. 45 Ibid., 79. 46 Ibid.
28. “President Hamid Karzai’s speech at the International Conference on Afghanistan on 20 July 2010”, at http://www.afghanistan-un.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/president-karzai- speech.pdf (last visited 10 July 2014). 48 Ibid.
29. “World Bank Group Invests in Energy Trade between Central Asia and South Asia”, at http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2014/03/27/world-bank-group-invest-in- energy-trade-central-south-asia-pakistan (last visited 2 July 2014).
30. Jayshree Bajoria, “Afghanistan’s Crucial Economic Transition”, at http://www.cfr.org/ afghanistan/afghanistans-crucial-economic-transition/p26679 (last visited 25 June 2014). 51 Ibid.
31. http://www.dgap.org/en/article/getFULLPDF/23515 (last visited 4 July 2014).