Tansu Çiller's Leadership Traits and Foreign Policy

Abstract

In the post-Cold War era, from 1993 to 1996, Tansu Çiller led Turkey through volatile political and economic crises. Moreover, she had a strong interest in foreign affairs and her leadership attracted attention from abroad as she was a female prime minister of a predominantly Muslim nation. Much like the general lack of interest in psychological factors in Turkish foreign policy, there is little research on personality and its impact on Turkeyıs foreign affairs. In this paper, Çiller’s leadership is systematically studied by utilising one of the most prominent methods of leadership assessment: leadership traits analysis. This paper first profiles Tansu Çiller as prime minister and then compares her to other Turkish leaders in the post-Cold War era. Its findings suggest that Çiller’s high in-group bias and high distrust mark her leadership and foreign policy behaviour. The paper highlights the significance of personalities in foreign policy making and calls for systematic accounts of this effect on Turkeyıs foreign policy.

Keywords

• Profiling political leaders, at-a-distance assessment, leadership traits analysis, Tansu Çiller, prime ministers and Turkish foreign policy.

References

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3. Margaret G. Hermann, “Explaining Foreign Policy Behavior Using the Personal Characteristics of Political Leaders”, International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 24, No. 1 (March 1980), p. 12.
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6. William Hale, Turkish Foreign Policy 1774-2000, Portland, Oregon, Frank Cass Publishers, 2002, p. 197.
7. According to a profile of Çiller in Maclean’s magazine (“The other new woman PM”, 12 July 1993), Çiller frequently mentioned Margaret Thatcher as a political model.
8. Andrea K. Grove, Political Leadership in Foreign Policy: Manipulating Support across Borders, New York, Palgrave Macmillan, 2007, p. 1.

9. David G. Winter, “Personality and Political Behavior”, in Sears, Huddy and Jervis (eds.), Oxford Handbook of Political Psychology, pp. 110-145.
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16. Dyson, “Stuff Happens”.
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20. Towards the United States?”, paper presented at the Annual Convention of the International
21. Studies Association-Midwest, 2009; Özgur Özdamar, “Dış Politika Karar Alımı Sürecinde Lider Merkezli Yaklaşım: Akılcı Tercih Kuramı ve Türkiye’nin Irak Savası’na Katılmama Kararı”, in Efegil and Kalaycı (eds.), Dış Politika Teorileri Bağlamında Türk Dış Politikasının Analizi, Ankara, Nobel Yayınevi, 2012.
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24. Here, primarily, the role of the military in making Turkey’s foreign policy is implied.
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26. The two exceptions are Yeşim Arat, “A Woman Prime Minister in Turkey: Did It Matter?”, Women and Politics, Vol. 19, No. 4 (1998); and Ümit Cizre, “Tansu Çiller: Lusting for Power and Undermining Democracy”, in Heper and Sayarı (eds.), Political Leaders and Democracy in Turkey, Lanham, Maryland, Lexington Books, 2002. Arat focuses on gender and politics; Cizre approaches to Çiller’s leadership in general and given the theme of the Heper and Sayarı volume on leadership and democracy.
27. This is well beyond the 5,000 words suggested by Hermann for an accurate leadership traits profile of a leader.
28. Michael Laver, Kenneth Benoit, and John Garry, “Extracting Policy Positions from Political Texts Using Words as Data”, American Political Science Review, Vol. 97, No. 2 (May 2003), pp. 311–331; Dyson and Billordo, “Using Words as Data”.
29. Cizre, “Tansu Çiller”, p. 207.
30. One must note that these perceptions of women in leadership positions may very well reflect gender stereotyping; see, Arat, “A Woman Prime Minister in Turkey”.
31. MacLean’s, “The Other New Woman PM”.
32. Cizre, “Tansu Çiller”, p. 207.
33. Current Biography Yearbook, “Tansu Çiller”, Vol. 55 (1994), pp. 104-108; Çiller’s former colleagues at Bosphorus University mentioned her “uncompromising attitude”, see Molly McAnailly Burke, “Turkey's First Lady”, Lear's, Vol. 6 (October 1993), pp. 34-36.
34. Quoted in MacLean’s, “The Other New Woman PM”.
35. Burke, “Turkey’s First Lady”.
36. Cizre, “Tansu Çiller”, p. 206.
37. Hermann, “Assessing Leadership Style”, p. 196.
38. For instance, according to Çiller’s profile published in Maclean’s: “Çiller displays a self- confidence that some say borders arrogance: on the wall of her living room hangs a magazine cover portraying her in armor as a Turkish version of Joan of Arc”. Another account of Tansu Çiller published in The New Republic (7 July 1997) also illustrates this: Çiller “would not be averse to being called “Anatürk”.
39. Çiller’s Distrust of Others score is not significantly higher than the average score; yet, if Erbakan (with a score more than two standard deviations higher than the mean) is an outlier in this trait, then Çiller’s distrust of others becomes more significant.
40. Tansu Çiller, Press Briefing, Moscow, Russia, 9 September 1993.
41. Interview with PBS (Public Broadcasting Company, USA), 18 April 1995.
42. Arat, “A Woman Prime Minister in Turkey”, p. 12. Arat also observes that Çiller ‘justified’ her militarism, or more specifically her hawkish policies on the Kurdish problem, with reference to being a mother, Arat, “A Woman Prime Minister in Turkey”, p.16. 57 Ibid., p. 11.
43. BBC Summary of World Broadcasts, “Premier Says Flags and Soldiers ‘Must Go’ from Disputed Islet”, 30 January 1996.
44. Interview with Mehmet Ali Birand, Show TV, 13 February 1996.
45. Interview with PBS, 18 April 1995.
46. Hale, Turkish Foreign Policy, p. 314. Also, on Çiller’s “dirty fight against the PKK”, see Cizre, “Tansu Çiller”, p. 205.
47. “Prime Minister Warns Armenia of War if “One Inch” of Nakhichevan Harmed”, Agence France-Presse, 4 September 1993.
48. Arat, “A Woman Prime Minister in Turkey”, p. 11.
49. Hermann, “Assessing Leadership Traits”.
50. Ibid., Hermann reports that 87 heads of state from around the world have an average Task Focus score of .590 with a low of .460 and a .710 for the highest score.
51. Margaret G. Hermann, Thomas Preston, Baghat Korany, and Timothy M. Shaw, “Who Leads Matters: The Effects of Powerful Individuals”, The International Studies Review, Vol. 3, No. 2 (Summer 2001), pp. 83-131.
52. According to Hasan Kösebalaban, this is the single-issue area Çiller had control over free of the military’s involvement. Hasan Kösebalaban, Turkish Foreign Policy: Islam, Nationalism, and Globalization, Palgrave Macmillan, 2011, pp. 130-132.