Containing the Iranian Nuclear Crisis: The Useful Precedent of a Fuel Swap

Abstract

The nuclear fuel swap that was proposed by the USA in October 2009, accepted by Iran, then rejected, and finally accepted again under conditions rejected by the West, was never a solution to the nuclear crisis. Tangential to the main issues, the deal offered only a temporary respite from the threat posed by Iran’s sensitive nuclear programs. Intended as a confidencebuilding measure, the deal has only sown more suspicion, and the attempt in May 2010 by Brazil and Turkey to renew the agreement served to widen the circle of distrust. Yet the precedent of sending Iranian enriched uranium out of the country and thereby reducing its stockpile still holds promise. The question is whether or not Iran is determined to have a nuclearweapons capability. Even if it is, containment and deterrence policies may help to keep that capability latent, but unrestricted growth of Iran’s enrichment program could still trigger military action

References

1. Portions of this paper draw on the author’s article on “Iran: The Fragile Promise of the Fuel-Swap Plan”, Survival, Vol.52, No. 3 (June–July 2010), pp. 67–94.
2. In theory, a bomb could be made using 20% HEU, but it would be impractically large, weighing at least 400kg. Weapons designers prefer to use HEU enriched to over 90%, which is considered weapons grade.
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5. Iran commonly refers to the enrichment level as 20%, which is the rounded-up figure (from 19.75%) used throughout much of the rest of this article.
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9. A suggestion along these lines was made in 2008 by Bruce Riedel and Gary Samore (who would soon become a special assistant to President Obama on the National Security Council staff). See, “Managing Nuclear Proliferation in the Middle East”, in Richard N. Haass and Martin S. Indyk (eds.), Restoring The Balance: A Middle East Strategy For The Next President, Washington DC, Brookings Institution Press, 2008, p. 107.
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