PEACE IN AFGHANISTAN? THE PROBLEM AND PROSPECTS

Abstract

Conflict resolution and peacemaking is an incremental and painstaking task that may not bring immediate laurels nor does it make headlines. Yet the quest for normalisation and peace in Afghanistan, symbolised by the '6+2 Group' initiative, may present a new window of opportunity to the lingering Afghan imbroglio. The Afghan story of the last ten years is a saga of missed opportunities, broken agreements and betrayed promises. Their leaders have left no stone unturned in their internecine fighting - the hallmark of which is countless intrigues, ruthless ambition and shifting alliances. Besides Afghans, their regional neighbours have also jumped into the fray, cynically promoting their immediate and narrow interests. The USA, the 'patron-saint' of the free world, became a friend of the Afghans during the 1980s in a bid to defeat the godless atheism of the former Soviet communist empire. In the process, it conveniently roped in Pakistan as a conduit for arms and equipment by assigning it the status of a 'frontline state.' Once the mission was accomplished, the Afghans were left in the lurch to fend for themselves. They fought the Russians with ferocious passion; after the Russian's departure they started fighting one another with equal relish and vengeance. The USA and other Western powers now consigned them to almost strategic oblivion - to bleed themselves to death and destruction in their intramural fighting. In the words of the Algerian diplomat, Lakhdar Brahimi, former UN mediator on Afghanistan, "Afghanistan looks like an infected wound. You don't even know where to start cleaning it

References

1. 1 As cited in Ahmed Rashid, Taliban: Islam, Oil and the New Great Game in Central Asia, London: I.B. Tauris, 2000, p. 206.
2. 2 'Taliban Forces Capture Chal District: Fighting Moving Closer to Tajik Border: Russia', The News, International, Islamabad, 26 September 2000, p. 12. Also see the editorial, 'Back to the Taliban', ibid., p. 7.
3. 3 'Moscow, Delhi Working Out Strategy Against Afghan Threat,' The News, 6 October 2000, p. 10.
4. 4 According to Yesterzhembsky, there was evidence of five training camps in Afghanistan in which several Tajiks and Uzbeks were being trained. The News, 28 September 2000, p. 8.
5. 5 'CIS Presidents to Draw Up Regional Security Plan', The News, 11 October 2000, p. 21.
6. 6 'No Threat to Central Asia from Afghanistan: Taliban,' The News, 20 September 2000, p. 4. Also see 'Afghan Government for Good Ties with Neighbours: Taliban.' The News, 16 October 2000, p. 10.
7. 7 Ahsanur Rahman Khan, 'Taliban as an Element of the Evolving Geopolitics: Realities, Potential and Possibilities', Focus On Regional Issues, Institute Of Regional Studies, Islamabad, Vol. XVIII, No. 2, 2000, pp. 15-17
8. 8 'Taliban Team in New York to Lobby for UN Seat', The News, 22 September 2000, p. 10.

9. 9 Ibid.
10. 10 'Uzbeks Soften Stand Towards Taliban,' The News, 19 October 2000, p. 1.
11. 11 The reasons can be attributed to the Turkmen's reliance on adat (tribal customs), President Niazov's strong curbing of Islamic parties and groups, his banning of foreign Islamic preachers, giving no quarter to asylum seekers for ethnic Afghan Turkmen and, above all, given the landlocked status of Turkmenistan, a compulsive need to export its gas and oil resources to the outside world. See Ahmad Rashid, 'Future of Islam in Central Asia - II', The Nation, Islamabad, 31 August 2000, p. 7.
12. 12 Remarks made by Colonel Sultan Amir 'Imam,' Consul General, Herat, Afghanistan, InterInstitutional Dialogue, Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad, Vol. 1, No. 2, 8 September 2000, p. 7.
13. 13 'UN Warns of Famine Deaths in Afghanistan', The News, 10 October 2000, p. 2.
14. 14 'UNHCR Calls for Aid to Speed Up Afghan's Return,' The News, 20 September 2000, p. 12.
15. 15 It is estimated that nearly 150 to 300 casualties occur every month in Afghanistan as a result of land mines and unexploded ordnance. In the past 12 years, more than 30,000 individuals have fallen victim to mines in Afghanistan and their complete clearance may take seven to ten years. Arshad Sharif, 'Land Mines Claim 150 Lives Every Month in Afghanistan', The News, 3 October 2000, p. 3.
16. 16 Peter Mardsen, The Taliban: War, Religion and the New Order in Afghanistan, Oxford University Press, 1998.
17. 17 'UN Warns of Halting Aid to Afghanistan,' The News, 10 September 2000, p. 12.
18. 18 Karl Inderfuth, US Assistant Secretary of State for Asian Affairs, in a statement cited in 'US Rules Out UN Seat for Taliban', The News, 9 October 2000, pp. 1, 8.
19. 19 'Afghan Opposition Forms Front Against Taliban', The News, 7 October 2000, p. 10.
20. 20 Nasim Zehra, 'After the Taliban Victories', The News, 7 October 2000, p. 6.
21. 21 Lt. Gen. (retd.) Kamal Matinuddin, The Taliban Phenomenon: Afghanistan 1994-1997, Karachi: Oxford University Press, 1999, p. 211.
22. 22 Col. Imam, op. cit., p. 8.
23. 23 Rashid, op. cit., p. 210.
24. 24 Ibid., p. 212.
25. 25 Col. (retd.) Mohammad Yahya Effendi, 'The Insurgency in Afghanistan', Central Asia, Journal of Area Study Centre (Russia and Central Asia), University of Peshawar, Vol. 47, Winter 2000, p. 23.
26. 26 Rashid, op. cit., p. 212.
27. 27 Imam., op. cit., p. 8.
28. 28 Matinuddin, op. cit., p. 217.
29. 29 All official statements emanating from Russia and the Central Asian republics generally refer to this source of threat. See, e.g., The News, passim, July-November 2000.
30. 30 See Maqsudul Hasan Nuri, 'Peace in Afghanistan - II: Implications for the Region', The Nation, Islamabad, 21 June, 1999, p. 7.
31. 31 It is estimated that the August-September fighting in the northern regions of Afghanistan uprooted about 150,000 people. Although the displaced people have not yet crossed the borders into Tajikistan, any intensified fighting in Badakhshah province could lead to an exodus of refugees to Tajikistan. The fall of Taloqan in early September forced 100,000 residents to flee from the place. See 'Tajikistan Ready to Receive Afghan Refugees: UNHCR', The News, 11 October 2000, p. 12.
32. 32 'US to Increase Military Aid to Uzbekistan', The News, 28 September 2000, p. 12.
33. 33 Imam, Afghanistan, op. cit., p. 8.
34. 34 'Russia Threat to Region: Taliban', The News, 13 October 2000, p. 1.
35. 35 Based on a talk by Nasim Zehra, delivered at the Area Study Centre, Quaid e Azam University, Islamabad, 4 October 2000.
36. 36 Matinuddin, op. cit., pp. 212-27.
37. 37 Ibid., p. 118.
38. 38 'UN Moot Blames Taliban for Central Asian Unrest', The News, 20 October 2000, pp. 1,8.
39. 39 There is no dearth of literature both domestic and foreign warning Pakistan of interfering in Afghanistan, which is harming the latter's long term national interests. As an example, see Kaiser Bengali, 'Afghanistan Must Make Us Shudder', Political Economy, The News on Sunday, 27 August 2000, p. 21; also see the editorial, 'Can We See the 1971 Scenario Developing in Our North-west?', Frontier Post, Peshawar, 15 October 2000, p. 6.
40. 40 While the Afghan tradition of Pashtunwali (an unwritten code of law) states respect and protection to an outsider, in Afghan history this has spelt great suffering by inviting strong reprisals from outside powers. On this issue see Saleem Shah Kaka Khel, 'Asylum in Afghanistan', The News, 10 October 2000, p. 6.
41. 41 By singling out Osama bin Laden and continuing to demonise him, the US tends to build up his charisma, exalt him to the status of a hero, and in turn, earn opprobrium of the Muslim world for 'animosity' against the Muslim world.
42. 42 On the history of the Loya Jirga, read 'An Introduction into the History and Institutions of Afghan Traditional Loya Jirga', Central Asia, Vol. 47, Winter 2000, p. 131-142.
43. 43 According to the UNHCR , the fighting has led to over 500 refugees daily crossing over to Pakistan from the northern and southern regions of Afghanistan. See, e.g., the editorial, 'Afghan Imbroglio: It Is Not Possible for Pakistan to Find New Resources to Play the Perfect Host', The News, 23 October 2000, p. 7.