CAN RUSSIA DO IT ALONE IN THE CAUCASUS?

Abstract

In the heat of the NATO enlargement debate in Moscow, one issue was mentioned in passing by such different personalities as Vladimir Zhirinovsky, Alexander Lebed and Grigory Yavlinsky. The focus was misplaced. They pointed out that the protracted argument had turned attention away from where the real security problems were—the Caucasus. Indeed, the geopolitical challenges in the west, which Russian policy makers have been speculating about for months and months, can seem quite hypothetical when matched against Russia’s physical involvement in several violent conflicts in the south and the threat to its very territorial integrity in Chechnya. This apparent paradox could perhaps illuminate one general trend. Russia’s failed efforts to block NATO expansion and the deadlocks of its policy in the Caucasus are parts of the same process of geopolitical retreat